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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

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Projects

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed in the early 1990s to explore the long term challenges facing policymakers in reducing hunger and poverty in a sustainable fashion. The IMPACT model has been expanded and improved repeatedly to respond to increasingly complex policy questions and the state-of-the-art of modeling. See documentation of most recent update.

Currently, IMPACT is a network of linked economic, water, and crop models. At its core is a partial equilibrium multi-market economic model, which simulates national and international agricultural markets. The links to water and crop models support the integrated analysis of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis on a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels.

Many publications and other resources based on IMPACT analyses are available below. Also available is an online visualization tool providing key results from recent IMPACT analysis in an easy-to-access format.

For more information contact: IFPRI IMPACT model team.

Project duration: 2009 – ongoing

Contact

Keith Wiebe

Donors and funders

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Wellcome Trust

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Project partners

CGIAR Centers

Oxford University

Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research

Purdue University

Wageningen University

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

European Commission’s Joint Research Center

University of Florida

Columbia University

Publications

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Brief

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current structure of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from copper and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia’s economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167

Country/Region

Zambia

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Exports; Climate; Machine Learning

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Crop Yield; Poverty; Nutrition; Machine Learning; Risk Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Poverty; Nutrition; Crop Yield; Machine Learning; Climate

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 16, 2021

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach

By Uma Lele and Mark Rosegrant

A new report shows how targeted spending can have significant global benefits.

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 15, 2020

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger

By Timothy Sulser and Shahnila Dunston

Modeling suggests export bans intended to buttress domestic food supplies could have wide impacts.

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 07, 2020

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments

By Sara Gustafson

How can we feed 10 billion people by 2050? How much and in what ways will climate change impact global food production? What can be done to ensure that the world’s agriculture and food systems remain sustainable in both the short and the long term? To answer these and other critical questions, researchers and development […]

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Events

Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

December 18, 2019, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool

Join the Food Security Portal (FSP), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) in the launch of the global foresight tool Impacts of Alternative Investment Scenarios. The tool was recently developed by IFPRI’s IMPACT model team and the FSP. The Global Foresight tool provides researchers and […]

2015 Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI at External Event

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December 5 to 7, 2015

2015 Global Landscapes Forum

The 2015 GLF brings together individuals and organizations that have an impact on land use.

Climate Change & Food Security
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 10, 2015, 5:15 – 6:45 pm

Climate Change & Food Security

Challenges and options at global and national scales. Video now available from the Nov 10 Policy Seminar.

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Donors

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Wellcome Trust
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Team members

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling, Latin America and the Caribbean

Other

Related Projects

Topics/Countries

Related links