War in Ukraine Blog Landing Page

Malawi is heading towards a severe food crisis later this year after an El Niño induced mid-season dry spell—the worst in the last hundred years—affected the harvest of maize, the staple food grown by nine out of 10 fa

Cocoa bean prices have been rising since the last quarter of 2023, hitting a record high of $10.97 per kilogram on April 19 (Figure 1).

Healthy soils play a critical role in supporting agricultural productivity, climate change mitigation and resilience, and a range of ecosystem services.

Malawi is facing a severe drought crisis linked to the El Niño climate phenomenon.

Parts of Southern Africa have been experiencing a severe drought since late 2023, fueled in large part by the ongoing El Niño Southern Oscillation. Falling harvests have led to disaster declarations in Malawi, Zambia, and Zimbabwe and affected countries across the region.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 sent a shock through global fertilizer markets. All agricultural trade in the region was disrupted for a time, and a number of countries imposed economic sanctions on major fertilizer producers Russia and its ally Belarus (the latter already targeted pre-invasion by European Union fertilizer export sanctions).

The war in Ukraine continues to disrupt the country’s agrifood sector, posing an ongoing threat to food security. Damage to critical infrastructure is hindering agricultural activity and the transportation of essential food to local markets and to export destinations.

Cocoa bean prices have climbed to record nominal levels over the past six months, more than doubling since August 2023 (Figure 1). This price spike has largely been driven by weather-related diseases that have reduced cocoa production in key West African countries accounting for almost three quarters of world supplies.

During 2021 and 2022, global food and fertilizer prices spiked due to several overlapping factors. Demand rose as the world economy emerged from the COVID-19 recession; global supply chains suffered major disruptions associated with the uneven recovery; and the outbreak of war between Russia and Ukraine—both key food and fertilizer producers—generated yet another shock.

Is it too late to save Gaza’s population from famine? Read more

Two years after Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, the war continues to disrupt agricultural production and trade in Ukraine—one of the world's largest agricultural exporters—and poses an ongoing threat to global food security.

Israel’s continuing attacks against Hamas are causing massive collateral damage to agricultural livelihoods and food supplies in the Gaza Strip.

Six months after India introduced a set of export restrictions on rice with the aim of holding down domestic prices, global rice markets continue to feel the impact.

Asia is home to 55% of the people in the world affected by hunger—more than 400 million—and faces continuing threats to food security. The crises of recent years—including the COVID-19 pandemic, the Russia-Ukraine war, and climate-related shocks—have disrupted Asia’s food supply chains as they have around the world. Read more

The recent attacks of Yemen-based Houthi rebels on ships in the Red Sea have paralyzed shipping through the Suez Canal, forcing exporters in the Black Sea region and elsewhere to consider alternative—and more costly—shipping routes.

The food insecurity situation in the Gaza Strip is becoming increasingly dire.

Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered a series of global food system disruptions that continue today. The two countries are major agricultural exporters, and the war limited the flow of goods and drove up prices of wheat, fertilizers, and other key items around the world. As the war nears the end of its second year, global prices have fallen but effects linger in many countries.

International food commodity prices have experienced a series of shocks over the past decade. The prices of rice, maize, and wheat spiked in 2007-08 as a result of supply shocks, demand for biofuels, and export trade restrictions. Commodity prices increased again in 2010-11.

Since peaking in April 2022, global agricultural food commodity prices have declined by almost 25% as of October 2023, according to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization’s (FAO) food price index (Figure 1). Contributing to the decrease were strong harvests in large food producing countries, steep declines in shipping costs, and more affordable energy and fertilizer prices (Figure 2).

As with other commodity markets such as rice, the global sugar market has seen large increases in prices due to El Niño-related production shortfalls in major exporting countries in South and Southeast Asia. At the same time, other factors are also constricting supplies.

On July 20, India banned exports of non-basmati price (covered in our blog post of July 25)—aiming to cool rising domestic prices—a move many feared would drive rising global prices higher.

Russia’s July 17 withdrawal from the Black Sea Grain Initiative (BSGI), has sparked fears of reduced exports of wheat and other key commodities to developing countries, along with other market disruptions.

On July 20, India announced that it would restrict exports of non-basmati rice to calm domestic rice prices that had risen more than 30% since October 2022 (Figure 1).

On July 17, Russia announced that it was terminating participation in the Black Sea Grain Initiative, which allowed exports of grains and other agricultural products from Ukrainian ports.

Recent crisis-driven increases in food and nutrition insecurity, coupled with the growing threat of climate change, have highlighted the need for drastic changes in our food systems.

On June 6, the Nova Kakhovka dam in southern Ukraine, located about 70 km upstream of Kherson, a port city on the Dnipro River, collapsed, sending an uncontrollable flow of water from its reservoir downstream. Read more

As the food and climate crises continue to cause suffering around the world, one under-appreciated solution—neglected crops—could be a powerful tool to alleviate both crises in one of the worst affected regions: Africa.

Agricultural markets—particularly trade in cereals such as wheat and maize—have seen significant volatility over the past year as impacts of the Russia-Ukraine war, combined with tight global stocks, drove prices to record (nominal) highs. The rice market, by contrast, has been generally tranquil (Figure 1).

As 2022 came to a close, we attended the GIZ conference “A Year of Multiple Crises: Reflecting the impacts, policy responses and outlook for food security and agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa.” During the event, experts examined the global policy implications of the Russia-Ukraine war regarding food, fuel, and fertilizer, as well as the conflict’s global market disruptions and its particular i

Following fierce farm protests over gluts of Ukrainian grain and other food items in their domestic markets, four European Union countries—Poland, Slovakia, Bulgaria, and Hungary—have temporarily imposed import restrictions on key agricultural products from Ukraine.

Policies to boost biofuel production and use—crop subsidies, mandates, and other measures—came under intense scrutiny during the food price spikes of 2007/08, 2010/11, and 2012/13.

The Russia-Ukraine war has focused global attention on the key economic roles that those countries play as major exporters of agricultural commodities.

Russia’s all-out war on Ukraine has inflicted devastating impacts that continue to mount more than a year after the invasion.

The Russia-Ukraine war has caused significant price volatility in agricultural markets over the past year—for wheat, in particular, price levels and price volatility reached the highest levels since the 2007/08 marketing year.

Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine triggered global disruptions in markets for key food crops and fertilizers, threatening food security worldwide.

When Russian troops invaded Ukraine one year ago, the war appeared to pose a grave threat to global food security.

Substantial increases in biofuel production were thought to have contributed to the steep food price spikes witnessed in 2007-08. Now, with global food prices down from recent peaks but still high, the “food vs. fuel” question—the issue of how biofuel production affects food supplies and food price inflation—is being revisited.

Almost a year after the February 2022 Russian invasion in Ukraine, fears of a period of sustained high global food prices have subsided somewhat, but eight major concerns for food security remain.

In the weeks following Russia's invasion of Ukraine in late February 2022, several countries imposed export restrictions—including licensing requirements, taxes, and some outright bans—on a variety of feed and food products.

Because of its dependence on food imports, Egypt is particularly vulnerable to the high world food prices and trade shocks triggered by Russia’s February 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Frequent food crises with spiking prices have become the new normal in the 21st century, bringing urgency to the task of understanding their nutritional impacts on poor and food insecure populations. Read more

The Yemen conflict, underway since early 2015, has led to an ongoing, unprecedented humanitarian emergency. Food needs far exceed current consumption levels, with 3.5 million pregnant or breastfeeding women and children under 5 suffering from acute malnutrition and up to 19 million people affected by food insecurity in 2022.

The economies of the Southern Cone (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Paraguay, and Uruguay), major agricultural exporters still recovering from the negative impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic, have benefited from the rise in international prices accompanying the Russian invasion of Ukraine.

The sanctions imposed by the European Union, United States, Canada, and other countries on Russia and Belarus following Russia’s February 24 invasion of Ukraine included restrictions on banking, trade, technology transfers, and specific individuals.

Note: On November 2, Russia 

After the sharp rise in international prices of wheat and other staple foods in the wake of Russia’s February invasion of Ukraine, since May prices have fallen back to pre-war levels. Has the global food price crisis now come to an end? Unfortunately, such a conclusion is premature. Domestic food prices for consumers continue to rise in most countries. Read more

Development agencies are pouring in billions of dollars to address the global food crisis exacerbated by Russia’s war on Ukraine. The World Bank, the G7, the European Union’s Team Europe, and the United States have collectively pledged more than $40 billion to avert food and humanitarian crises. Yet this much-needed assistance carries its own risks.

On July 22, Ukraine and Russia reached an agreement to allow exports of grain and other agricultural products to resume from selected Ukraine Black Sea ports after months of Russian blockade. Read more

The World Trade Organization’s 12th Ministerial Conference (WTO MC12) takes place June 12-15 in Geneva—two years after the pandemic forced members to postpone the meeting's original schedule.

Much of the early attention on the Russian-Ukraine conflict’s food security impacts has been concentrated on countries highly dependent on wheat imports from the Black Sea region.

The current rise in global market prices for major food commodities almost mirrors that of the 2008 food crisis, presenting a worldwide threat to food security.

As we discussed in our previous post, fertilizer prices have increased drastically, +230%, since May 2020. Now—driven upward by supply disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict—they are nearing the peak reached in August 2008 during the last major food price crisis.

The Group of Seven wealthy nations (G7), currently led by the German presidency, has put a welcome focus on the global food insecurity and nutrition crisis unleashed by the war in Ukraine, with the most severe impacts falling on vulnerable populations in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs).

High food prices and supply disruptions triggered by the Ukraine war are hitting Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) countries like Egypt, Sudan, and

The war in Ukraine has pushed prices of agricultural products to historically high levels, and concerns about global food security occupy headlines and world leaders’ minds, as demonstrated by recent IMF and World

Food insecurity is endemic in Malawi, affecting up to 38% of the population every year in the run-up to the harvest in April.

Like people, plants need a multitude of nutrients to thrive. These are categorized into micronutrients, such as zinc and iron; secondary macronutrients; such as calcium and magnesium; and three primary macronutrients: nitrogen (N), phosphorus (P), and potassium (K).

As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues to disrupt the global trade of key foods such as wheat and vegetable oils, along with fertilizers, impacts are falling heavily on countries such as Bangladesh. Dependent on imports of those items to feed its large population, many poor and vulnerable to shocks, the country faces the prospect of rising food insecurity.

Global turmoil and supply shocks can increase a country's vulnerability to food shortages. In the past, countries have often resorted to restrictive trade policies to address food supply disruptions. The Ukraine-Russia crisis is no exception; a number of countries have imposed export restrictions in various forms.

The Russian invasion of Ukraine is likely to have serious consequences for global food security.

Russia's invasion of Ukraine has disrupted agricultural production and trade from one of the world's major food exporting regions.

Food security in West Africa has been deteriorating since 2015: The proportion of the population affected by undernutrition rose from 11.5% in 2015 to 18.7% in 2020, a total of 75.2 million people.

The IFPRI Food Security Portal’s Excessive Food Price Variability Early Warning System is showing excessive levels of price volatility in the four major food commodities: Wheat, maize, rice, and soybeans, as well as for cotton.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has led to the disruption, by sanctions or war, of two of the world’s largest grain exporters. This means 2022 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the global food system.

The Russia-Ukraine conflict has roiled agricultural markets, particularly wheat, which has seen prices rise by 30% since Russia invaded on Feb. 24.

­­                          The IFPRI-Egypt program website has published this blog post and its figures translated into

The Russian invasion of Ukraine has shocked the world, leading to terrible suffering, and harsh impacts are already being felt beyond the conflict zone. The war has the potential to spark a global food security crisis, driven by two factors: Skyrocketing costs of food for consumers and of fertilizers for producers.

The unfolding crisis in Ukraine has roiled commodity markets and threatens global food security. Ongoing fallout from the COVID-19 pandemic and other factors have already driven up food prices.