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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Khalid Siddig

Khalid Siddig is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit and Program Leader for the Sudan Strategy Support Program. He is an agricultural economist with a focus on examining the impacts of potential shocks and the allocation of resources on economic growth, environmental sustainability, and income distribution through the lens of economywide and micro-level tools. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Nicola Cenacchi

Senior Research Analyst

Bio

Nicola Cenacchi is a Senior Research Analyst with the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, and is based at IFPRI-Washington, DC.

Publications

Publications

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Report

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

2024
Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur
…more Pitois, Gauthier; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.
Details

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s IMPACT model is a robust tool for analyzing global and regional challenges in food, agriculture, and natural resources. Continuously updated and refined, IMPACT version 3.6 is the latest update to the model for continuously improving the treatment of complex issues, including climate change, food security, and economic development. IMPACT 3.6 multimarket model integrates climate, crop simulation, and water models into a comprehensive system, providing decision-makers with a flexible platform to assess the potential impacts of various scenarios on biophysical systems, socioeconomic trends, technologies, and policies.

Year published

2024

Authors

Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; Thomas, Timothy S.; Zhu, Tingju; Gueneau, Arthur; Pitois, Gauthier; Wiebe, Keith D.; Rosegrant, Mark W.

Citation

Robinson, Sherman; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Sulser, Timothy B.; Mason-D’Croz, Daniel; Robertson, Richard D.; Cenacchi, Nicola; et al. 2024. The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT): Model documentation for version 3.6. Modeling Systems Technical Paper 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148953

Keywords

Agriculture; Commodities; Policy Analysis; Policy Innovation; Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

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Journal Article

Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

2024Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Robertson, Richard D.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Wiebe, Keith D.
Details

Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions

Food and nutrition security have become increasingly critical concerns for policy makers given that the slow progress on eliminating these challenges has reversed in recent years, with an increase in the number of hungry people by 122 million (20 percent) between 2019 and 2022. In addition to rebuilding in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, the global food system faces inter-related challenges from climate change, trade disruptions, increasing scarcity of water and land, environmental degradation, and evolving food demand patterns, among other factors. This paper assesses prospects to 2050 for food and nutrition security with a focus on low- and middle-income countries around the world in the context of these broader food system changes. Measures of food security presented here include per capita food and kilocalorie availability, the number and prevalence of hungry people, and micronutrient availability. Projected outcomes are assessed using the latest version of the International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) framework, a modeling system that combines information from climate models, crop simulation models, and river basin level hydrological and water supply and demand models linked to a global, partial equilibrium, multimarket agriculture sector model.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gebretsadik, Yohannes; Robertson, Richard D.; Thomas, Timothy S.; Wiebe, Keith D.

Citation

Rosegrant, Mark W.; Sulser, Timothy B.; Dunston, Shahnila; Mishra, Abhijeet; Cenacchi, Nicola; et al. 2024. Food and nutrition security under changing climate and socioeconomic conditions. Global Food Security 41: 100755. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100755

Keywords

Food Security; Nutrition Security; Climate Change; Socioeconomic Aspects; Modelling

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.gfs.2024.100755 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

“Fruit basket upset”: Spatially explicit crop mixture responses to climatic and economic pressures

2024Robertson, Richard D.; Petsakos, Athanasios; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gotor, Elisabetta
Details

“Fruit basket upset”: Spatially explicit crop mixture responses to climatic and economic pressures

Purpose The choice of crops to produce at a location depends to a large degree on the climate. As the climate changes and food demand evolves, farmers may need to produce a different mix of crops. This study assesses how much cropland may be subject to such upheavals at the global scale, and then focuses on China as a case study to examine how spatial heterogeneity informs different contexts for adaptation within a country. Design/methodology/approach A global agricultural economic model is linked to a cropland allocation algorithm to generate maps of cropland distribution under historical and future conditions. The mix of crops at each location is examined to determine whether it is likely to experience a major shift. Findings Two-thirds of rainfed cropland and half of irrigated cropland are likely to experience substantial upheaval of some kind. Originality/value This analysis helps establish a global context for the local changes that producers might face under future climate and socioeconomic changes. The scale of the challenge means that the agricultural sector needs to prepare for these widespread and diverse upheavals.

Year published

2024

Authors

Robertson, Richard D.; Petsakos, Athanasios; Cenacchi, Nicola; Gotor, Elisabetta

Citation

Robertson, Richard D.; Petsakos, Athanasios; Cenacchi, Nicola; and Gotor, Elisabetta. 2024. “Fruit basket upset”: Spatially explicit crop mixture responses to climatic and economic pressures. China Agricultural Economic Review 16(2). https://doi.org/10.1108/CAER-04-2023-0098

Country/Region

China

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Eastern Asia; Climate Change; Climate Change Adaptation; Crops; Farmers; Farmland

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1108/caer-04-2023-0098 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

News

July 25, 2019 | In the News

Rising CO2 to deplete crop nutrients in Africa, globally – Study (Business Day)

Nigeria’s Business Day reported on the findings of a new study by IFPRI researchers on projected changes to global nutrient availability due to climate change and rising CO2 levels. The article summarized the study’s key findings,including estimated reductions in growth of per capita protein, iron and zinc availability worldwide by 19.5%, 14.4% and 14.6%, respectively, and quoted Senior […]

July 19, 2019 | In the News

Climate change, rising CO2 level may reduce protein, iron, zinc in food crops by 2050: Study (Business Standard)

India’s Business Standard reported on a new study co-authored by Senior Scientist Timothy Sulser and Senior Research Analyst Nicola Cenacchi on projected changes to global nutrient availability due to climate change and rising CO2 levels over the next 30 years. The article summarized the study’s key findings, including estimated reductions in growth of per capita […]

July 17, 2019 | In the News

If We All Ate Enough Fruits And Vegetables, There’d Be Big Shortages (NPR)

Feeding the world in 2050 will require greater investments in agricultural production, more education on healthy diets, and new techniques to reduce food waste (NPR).

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