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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Samuel Benin

Samuel Benin is the Acting Director for Africa in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. He conducts research on national strategies and public investment for accelerating food systems transformation in Africa and provides analytical support to the African Union’s CAADP Biennial Review.

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Valerie Mueller

Nonresident Fellow

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Bio

Valerie Mueller is a Nonresident Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit and an Associate Professor in the School of Politics and Global Studies at Arizona State University. Prior to joining the university, she was a Senior Research Fellow at IFPRI in Washington, DC.

Mueller’s research falls largely into three main themes. The first quantifies rural household vulnerability to climate variability, focusing on migration, nutrition, and health markers in Africa and Asia. The second area uses randomized controlled trials to identify mechanisms to improve the delivery of rural services (legal justice for women, agricultural extension, and the equitable allocation of irrigation water) in East African countries. Her third area of research focuses on the prospects of youth employment in Africa. She has a co-edited volume published at Oxford University Press in 2019, which studies the evolution of youth employment and its role in the structural transformation process in Africa.

Mueller’s research contributions have been featured in Nature Climate Change, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences, American Economic Review, American Journal of Agricultural Economics, and the Journal of Development Economics, and have received significant media coverage in over 15 major media outlets (including Le Monde, Science, and Scientific American). Despite her presence in the research community, she remains involved in the field and aims to provide relevant technical expertise by repeated interaction with donor communities, local policymakers, and government officials.

Mueller’s personal website can be found here.

ASU Profile Page

Publications

Google Scholar Profile

RePEc Author Profile

Publications

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Journal Article

Sunny-day flooding and mortality risk in coastal Florida

2024Mueller, Valerie; Hauer, Mathew; Sheriff, Glenn
Details

Sunny-day flooding and mortality risk in coastal Florida

Sea-level rise is likely to worsen the impacts of hurricanes, storm surges, and tidal flooding on coastal access to basic services. We investigate the historical impact of tidal flooding on mortality rates of the elderly population in coastal Florida using administrative records of individual deaths, demographics, and residential location combined with tidal gauge and high-resolution elevation data. We incorporate data capturing storm and precipitation events into our empirical model to distinguish between disruptions from routine sunny-day flooding and less predictable tropical storm–induced flooding. We find that a 1-standard-deviation (20-millimeter) increase in tidal flooding depth increases mortality rates by 0.46% to 0.60% among those aged 65 or older. Our estimates suggest that future sea-level rises may contribute to an additional 130 elderly deaths per year in Florida relative to 2019, all else being equal. The enhanced risk is concentrated among residents living more than nine minutes away from the nearest hospital. Results suggest that tidal flooding may augment elderly mortality risk by delaying urgent medical care.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mueller, Valerie; Hauer, Mathew; Sheriff, Glenn

Citation

Mueller, Valerie; Hauer, Mathew; Sheriff, Glenn. 2024. Sunny-day flooding and mortality risk in coastal Florida. Demography 61(1): 209–230. https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11153911

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Northern America; Flooding; Mortality; Sea Level; Elderly

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1215/00703370-11153911 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine women’s vulnerability to climate change

2024Caruso, German; Mueller, Valerie; Villacis, Alexis
Details

Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine women’s vulnerability to climate change

We provide an application of machine learning to identify the distributional consequences of climate change in Malawi. We compare climate impact estimates based on drought indicators established objectively from the k-means algorithm to more traditional measures. Young women affected by drought were 5 percentage points more likely to be married by 18 than those living in nondrought areas. Our approach generates robust results when varying the number of clusters and definition of treatment status. In some cases, we find the design using k-means to define treatment is more likely to satisfy the assumptions underlying the difference-in-differences strategy than when using arbitrary thresholds. Projections from the estimates indicate future drought risk may lead to larger declines in labor productivity due to women’s engagement in early age marriage than other factors affecting their participation rates. Under the extreme representative concentration pathway scenario, drought exposure encourages the exit of 3.3 million women workers by 2100.

Year published

2024

Authors

Caruso, German; Mueller, Valerie; Villacis, Alexis

Citation

Caruso, German; Mueller, Valerie; and Villacis, Alexis. Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine women’s vulnerability to climate change. Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy. Article in press. First published online June 1, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13444

Keywords

Machine Learning; Women; Vulnerability; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1002/aepp.13444 Source record

Project

Gender

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

The gendered consequences of COVID-19 for internal migration

2023Mueller, Valerie; Páez-Bernal, Camila; Gray, Clark; Grépin, Karen A.
Details

The gendered consequences of COVID-19 for internal migration

Scant evidence exists to identify the effects of the pandemic on migrant women and the unique barriers on employment they endure. We merge longitudinal data from mobile phone surveys with subnational data on COVID cases to examine whether women were left more immobile and vulnerable to health risks, relative to men, during the pandemic in Kenya and Nigeria. Each survey interviewed approximately 2000 men and women over three rounds (November 2020–January 2021, March–April 2021, November 2021–January 2022). Linear regression analysis reveals internal migrants are no more vulnerable to knowing someone in their network with COVID. Rather, rural migrant women in Kenya and Nigeria were less vulnerable to transmission through their network, perhaps related to the possible wealth accumulation from migration or acquired knowledge of averting health risks from previous destinations. Per capita exposure to COVID cases hinders the inter-regional migration of women in both countries. Exposure to an additional COVID case per 10,000 people resulted in a decline in women’s interregional migration by 6 and 2 percentage points in Kenya and Nigeria, respectively.

Year published

2023

Authors

Mueller, Valerie; Páez-Bernal, Camila; Gray, Clark; Grépin, Karen A.

Citation

Mueller, Valerie; Páez-Bernal, Camila; Gray, Clark; and Grépin, Karen. 2023. The gendered consequences of COVID-19 for internal migration. Population Research and Policy Review 42: 495-528. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09809-8

Country/Region

Kenya; Nigeria

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Data Analysis; Data; Gender; Surveys; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Employment; Vulnerability; Coronavirinae; Men; Migration; Coronavirus Disease; Gender Analysis; Health Hazards; Women

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s11113-023-09809-8 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Examining the gendered impacts of cash transfers on migration in Mali
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 15, 2021

Examining the gendered impacts of cash transfers on migration in Mali

By Melissa Hidrobo, Valerie Mueller, Shalini Roy, and Michael Wang

Exploring the complex interplay of work, migration, and gender.

Model: Rising seas may not drive population away from Bangladesh’s vulnerable coast
IFPRI Blog
 | 
February 03, 2021

Model: Rising seas may not drive population away from Bangladesh’s vulnerable coast

By Valerie Mueller, Andrew Reid Bell, and Honor Dearlove

Undercutting a standard assumption about climate change-driven migration.

Climate shocks reduce temporary urban out-migration rates in Eastern Africa
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 18, 2020

Climate shocks reduce temporary urban out-migration rates in Eastern Africa

By Valerie Mueller and Francesca Edralin

Heat waves and heavy rainfall events appear to limit opportunities for urban migrant workers.

Events

Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

January 21, 2020, 12:15 – 1:15 pm

Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts

The share of working-age young people in Africa south of the Sahara has risen due to past declines in mortality coupled with high fertility. This “youth bulge” has created a sense of urgency among national governments and the international development community as the prospect of widespread youth unemployment in Africa, and the social instability and […]

News

August 20, 2020 | In the News

Sea level rise to force 2 lakh to migrate from Bangladesh coastal areas: Study (UNB)

UNB (United News of Bangladesh) reported on the recent sea level rise. Researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Ohio State University conducted the study, “Coastal climate change, soil salinity and human migration in Bangladesh.” The study examines, for the first time, the complex relationship between flooding, soil salinity, rural livelihoods and migration; as well […]

December 03, 2019 | In the News

African youth growth an opportunity to generate development – IFPRI (Polity)

Polity (South Africa) reported on Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts, the new book by Valerie Mueller and James Thurlow. Thurlow suggests that rather than focusing on the youth, the best course for African countries is to promote inclusive growth that benefits young and old alike. Africa does not have a youth […]

December 03, 2019 | Press Release

NEW BOOK: Africa’s “youth bulge” presents opportunity to advance rural development

The share of Africa’s young population is growing rapidly, presenting an opportunity to generate inclusive development benefiting African countries, particularly in rural areas.

Research

Topics/Countries