Publications and Datasets

Determinants of household water and energy access and their impacts on food security and health outcomes in Sudan

This study investigates the determinants of access to safe water and reliable energy for households in Sudan using nationally representative data from a recent labor market survey. The results show that urbanization, education, and wealth significantly enhance the access households have to these essential services, while rural areas and less developed regions, particularly in the Darfur and Kordofan regions, face substantial challenges. Access to reliable energy correlates with better food security and health outcomes within households, and improved access to safe water significantly enhances the health of household members. Policy recommendations supported by these research results include targeted rural infrastructure investments, educational improvements, and regional interventions to address disparities in household access to safe water and reliable energy across Sudan.

Consumer response to food safety risk information

Unsafe food imposes significant health and productivity burdens on developing countries. We test the impact of a simple information intervention through which low-income urban consumers in Kenya were provided information about the likelihood that maize flour from the formal and informal sector violated a food safety standard. We find a 42 percent increase in the share of households consuming the similarly priced, lower risk formal sector flour type at follow-up in the treatment group relative to the control group, from a base of 33 percent. The intervention was equally effective for households earning below and above the sample median income level. Our results demonstrate the potential for low-cost interventions to increase the salience of food safety as a product attribute in informal markets or where regulatory enforcement is weak.

Effectiveness of aflatoxin biocontrol: Evidence from Kenyan smallholders under varied levels of technical support

Agricultural technologies shown to be highly effective in research trials often have a lower impact when utilized by smallholder farmers. Both heterogeneous returns and suboptimal application are believed to play a role in this efficacy gap. We provide experimental evidence on the impact of a biocontrol product for the control of aflatoxin, a carcinogenic fungal byproduct, as applied by smallholder farmers in Kenya. By varying the level of external support across farmers, we investigate the role of misapplication in the effectiveness gap. We find that the provision of biocontrol together with a one-time training on application reduces aflatoxin contamination in maize relative to a control group by 34 percent. Additional training to the farmers in the form of a call to remind them of the correct time of application in the crop cycle increases the reduction to 52 percent. Our findings indicate that farmers can achieve meaningful improvements in food safety using biocontrol even with minimal training on its use and that additional support at the recommended time of application can strengthen its impact.

Migration and women’s voice and agency in Senegal: Introducing a new survey

Millions of poor households around the world rely on migration to improve their economic circumstances and, increasingly, for resilience in the face of a changing climate. In vulnerable contexts, slow-onset climate impacts like water scarcity, rising temperatures, and more variable weather conditions are diminishing local economic opportunities and increasing food insecurity. Such climate impacts are projected to accelerate migration patterns, particularly out-migration from rural areas (Rigaud et al., 2018; SVR, 2023). While news reports on climate migration often emphasize communities leaving an area en masse due to a natural disaster, climate migration due to slow-onset climate shifts, which gradually lower crop yields and hinder agricultural livelihoods, more commonly implies a male household member migrating within a country, often seasonally, in order to send remittances back to his family.

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Rwanda: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would im pact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Is it a myth? Market power among intermediaries in agri-food value chains

A common narrative about agri-food value chains (AVCs) in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) is that smallholders are paid substantially less for their agricultural products relative to the prices consumers pay for them. Some of that difference can be attributed to market channels—even in competitive and efficient agricultural markets, there are costs involved as agricultural products move from producers to consumers, including expenses for transportation, collection and aggregation, grading, processing, distribution, packaging, and retailing.

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Women’s empowerment and migration: A review of the current literature and promising areas for future work

When individuals migrate— whether domestically or internationally, short- or long-term—migrants and their families experience dramatic changes in household dynamics and are exposed to new contexts and ideas (Hugo 2002). This phenomenon has driven a body of research focused on the linkages between women’s empowerment and migration, which primarily focuses on changes to the empowerment of wives when their husbands migrate (Fernández-Sánchez et al. 2020). To a lesser extent there is also literature on whether empowerment status contributes to the decision to migrate and migration experiences, as well as whether individuals might become more, or less, empowered during migration and at their ultimate destinations. Herein we synthesize these literatures and identify priority areas for future work.

Accelerating quality upgrading in Ugandan dairy value chains – Preliminary results from a value chain experiment

Uganda’s dairy sector faces persistent challenges in milk quality, particularly low butterfat and solids-not-fat (SNF) levels. This study uses a multilevel randomized control trial with interventions at both Milk Collection Center (MCC) and farmer levels to identify some of the barriers that prevent quality upgrading within dairy value chains. Innovations included milk analyzers, digital record-keeping, and farmer-focused educational campaigns. Results showed significant improvements in milk quality at MCCs using analyzers, with higher butterfat and SNF levels and reduced adulteration. However, adoption varied widely, and uniform price setting by processors failed to incentivize quality improvements. Future efforts should focus on aligning financial incentives with quality, reducing adoption barriers, and fostering competitive markets to ensure sustainable quality upgrading in Uganda’s dairy value chain.

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current structure of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from copper and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia’s economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

What are the economic and poverty implications for Sudan if the conflict continues through 2024?

The conflict in Sudan, which started in April 2023, has led to severe economic repercussions, sharply reducing the country’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP), employment, and household incomes and increasing the prevalence of poverty. Using an updated economywide database for Sudan, we ran an analysis of the likely economic impact of a continuation of the conflict through to the end of 2024 using two scenarios of extreme and moderate reductions in overall GDP. These reductions are triggered mainly by the ongoing conflict, which is causing additional cuts in the operations of business services and continuing disruptions to wholesale and retail services and manufacturing. The results of the analysis show a 47 percent decline in Sudan’s GDP under the extreme reduction scenario and a 13 percent decline under the moderate scenario relative to 2022 before the conflict began. Under the extreme scenario, the agrifood system GDP falls by 26 percent and employment by 50 percent, with non-farm jobs being more adversely affected. Household incomes decline significantly across all quintiles and in both rural and urban areas, with urban and richer households facing slightly higher reductions. Less-educated labor categories are severely affected, while tertiary-educated labor shows relative resilience. Poverty rates have surged, particularly in rural areas and among women, with the national poverty rate estimated to have increased by 21 percentage points under the extreme reduction scenario. To mitigate the widespread adverse impacts of the conflict on the Sudanese economy and foster long-term resilience, policies and interventions should prioritize the restoration of economic productivity, provide support for the agrifood system and employment recovery strategies, and ensure that social protection measures are accessible to all households facing increased deprivation.

Understanding migration within countries: A global perspective

The majority of migrants remain within their own borders. While 281 million people have migrated in another country in 2020, the number of internal migrants is estimated to stand at around 763 million (UN DESA, 2016; IOM, 2021). At the global level, the existing literature has mainly focused on understanding the drivers of international migration (Karemera et al., 2000; Mayda, 2010; Kim and Cohen, 2010). Understanding the dynamics of internal migration is key for conjecturing future prospects in terms of poverty, food insecurity, urbanization, within-country inequalities and geopolitical instability.

IFPRI Nexus SAMs: Annual Release Note 2024

The Nexus Project is pleased to provide an update on the Nexus Social Accounting Matrices (SAMs) developed and released by IFPRI in collaboration with national statistical agencies and research institutions in 2024. This Annual Release Note provides a brief overview of SAMs and the Nexus Project. It serves as a useful one-stop shop for obtaining links to the latest versions of all Nexus SAMs. For more information or questions, please email IFPRI-Nexus@cgiar.or

Impact of ongoing conflict and pathways to recovery in Sudan: Agricultural bounce-back, infrastructural investment, and social protection

In response to the 2023 conflict in Sudan and its extensive socio-economic repercussions, this study investigates the resultant economic, poverty, and undernourishment impacts, using an economywide model for in-depth analysis at national and household levels. The study also seeks to identify effective recovery pathways that can mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, with a particular focus on the role of the agricultural sector. Key findings reveal significant economic contractions across all scenarios, with the GDP experiencing a reduction of up to 12% and 18% following estimates by the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for 2023. These estimates are included in an economywide framework, linked to a microsimulation module as major war scenarios, namely, Moderate decline & slow recovery and Sharp decline & rapid recovery, respectively. Poverty rates are projected to increase by 8 and 11.6 percentage points, affecting an additional 2.7 and 3.9 million people in the two scenarios, respectively. Undernourishment is also expected to rise significantly, with an increase of 3.9 and 6.0 percentage points, adding approximately 1.3 and 2.0 million people to those affected in the two scenarios, respectively. The analysis proposes recovery strategies that emphasize agricultural productivity, infrastructure investment, and social protection measures. By simulating enhanced agricultural productivity scenarios, the study suggests that poverty could decrease notably, with potential reductions in the poor population by as much as 1.9 million by 2028. This study underscores the urgency of coordinated policy efforts and international support to mitigate the adverse impacts of the conflict, providing a strategic roadmap for recovery initiatives aimed at sustainable development and stability in Sudan.

Supporting Sudan’s entrepreneurs in crisis: Policy insights from micro, small, and medium enterprises

The current conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces and the Rapid Support Forces in Sudan, which began in April 2023, has had a profound impact on the nation’s micro, small, and medium enterprises (MSME). Such enterprises are a vital part of the country’s economy and important to the food security of many Sudanese households. All MSMEs, including those in the agrifood sector, have faced severe disruptions due to the instability, rising inflation, and supply chain breakdowns brought on by the conflict. These challenges have destabilized MSMEs, affecting their financial viability, operations, and capacity to support local food security and provide employment. Agrifood MSMEs, in particular, serve as critical intermediaries between large firms and smallholders, supporting local economies and national food systems.2 The conflict has disrupted every aspect of agrifood value chains in Sudan, from input supplies and production to market accessibility. Agrifood entrepreneurs—especially women—have borne some of the heaviest impacts. Female entrepreneurs already face significant gender-based barriers in operating successful businesses, such as more limited access to finance, restrictive social norms, and mobility constraints. In this period of conflict, they now confront even greater challenges.

Impact of risk-contingent credit and traditional credit on smallholders’ agricultural investment and productivity: Experimental evidence from Kenya

We use a multiyear, multi-arm randomized controlled trial implemented among 1,053 smallholders in Kenya to evaluate ex-ante investment and ex-post productivity and welfare benefits of two competing lending models: risk-contingent credit (RCC)—which embeds crop insurance with a loan product—and traditional credit (TC). We rely on local average treatment effects to demonstrate the effects of these alternative credit products on borrowers but report the intention-to-treat effects for their broader policy significance. Uptake of RCC increased treated households’ farm investments—specifically, adoption of chemical fertilizers—by up to 14 percent along the extensive margins and by more than 100 percent along the intensive margins, while TC’s effects were less in both magnitude and statistical significance. Neither type of credit product had a significant effect on the overall area cultivated under maize, hence enhancing agricultural intensification but not extensification. Ex-post, neither type of credit product had a strong direct effect on households’ productivity. We conclude that access to credit has potential to increase investment and productivity among smallholders, although improved productivity needs better measurement and extended intervention to be realized. To scale the potential effects of credit, derisking access to credit should be considered to expand access to credit.

Effects of experiential learning on women’s participation in agricultural decision making in India

Women’s decision-making in agriculture has received considerable research and policy attention in recent years. Decision-making is a key aspect of empowerment. For example, women’s input in productive decisions is a key indicator in the Women’s Empowerment in Agriculture Index (WEAI). Inclusion of women in decision-making can also help ensure that their knowledge and priorities are considered, which can lead to better agricultural outcomes and resource conditions. A cross-sectional study found that in Burkina Faso, India, Malawi, and Tanzania, households where women were more included in decision making on agricultural production produced more varied food-group crops with higher nutrient density. The question is how to strengthen women’s decision-making ability. A review of 12 agricultural development projects with explicit aims for women’s empowerment found that only 3 had a significant impact on women’s participation in agricultural and livelihood decision-making. An evidence scan on programmatic approaches to increasing women’s decision-making power found that the majority of such interventions focused on household- or community-level changes to social norms, technical training, or leadership, role models, and mentoring. The study notes the need for more contextualized studies of different programmatic approaches to increase women’s decision-making power and outcomes associated with the interventions.

Would you rather? Household choice between cash transfers or an economic inclusion program

We study households’ choice between continued cash transfers and a new economic inclusion program—two global prevalent social protection programs—offered by the Egyptian government. Lower-than-expected early adoption of the new program is correlated with differing perceptions on its design. We randomize official messaging to households describing the new program’s (i) consumption support duration and (ii) income-earning potential. Both treatments increase respondents’ likelihood of recommending the new program. A theoretical model estimated using households’ perceptions of program design predicts interest in the new program, and how it diminishes with increasing effort costs, asset loss probability, risk aversion and loss aversion.

Program pathways for sustainable, nutrition sensitive school meals: An updated framework

Global burden of disease analyses estimate that 20% of deaths are due to unhealthy diets (Afshin et al., 2019). Micronutrient deficiencies impair children’s physical and mental development (Bailey et al., 2015). The prevalence of obesity in children and adolescents increased from less than 1% in 1975 to 6% for girls and 8% for boys in 2016 (NCD Risk Factor Collaboration (NCD-RisC), 2017). The modernization of food systems in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) has led to rapid shifts to unhealthy diets and reductions in physical activity that have contributed to the global increase in rates of overweight and obesity (Popkin et al., 2020). Moreover, current dietary and population trends will exacerbate risks to people and the planet (Willett et al., 2019). Attention to nutrition during all stages of child and adolescent development is necessary to ensure that children can thrive over the 8,000-day period spanning infancy to adulthood, and to protect investments made earlier in the life cycle (Black et al., 2013). School feeding programs, or school meals, is a widely implemented intervention with documented impacts across social protection, education, health and nutrition (Alderman et al., 2024). Globally, programs reach about 368 million children for a total investment of about $70 billion a year (World Food Programme, 2020).

Cool transportation in Nigeria: Intervention, baseline and randomized controlled trial

In many developing countries, including Nigeria, much of fruit and vegetable production is lost largely because of lack of an adequate cold chain, including postharvest handling, cold storage and temperature-controlled transportation. As a result, not only the availability of fish, fruits, vegetables, milk, eggs and meat but also the safety and nutritional content of the food are affected. Under such conditions, all agents in the supply chain including farmers suffer from income reduction, while consumers face un-stable and lower-quality supply of normally more nutritious foods. Inadequate development of value chains and deficiencies in high costs associated with cooling systems are main causes of such losses.

Graduation from poverty: Can a big push program help conflict-affected households? Evidence from Somalia

We are living in one of the most violent periods since the end of the Cold War. Of the 59 active conflicts worldwide, nearly half (28) are unfolding in Africa. Among these, Somalia stands out as a country enduring one of the continent’s longest-running conflicts, stretching back to the 1980s. Nearly 4 million people out of Somalia’s population of 18 million have been forced to flee their homes due to persistent violence and increasingly unstable climate conditions. Many of these internally displaced persons (IDPs) have sought refuge in unplanned, informal settlements in urban areas.

Postharvest packaging and marketing innovation adoption in Nigeria: The case of plastic crate

Postharvest loss of horticultural crops is high in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), where smallholder farmers play a critical role in production (Jarman et al., 2023). Most losses happen during the production and postharvest handling stages, accounting for 38% and 34% of the total losses, respectively (Luo et al., 2021). The significant amounts of food loss are worrisome, particularly given the extent of poverty and food insecurity in SSA (Aragie, 2021). Reducing postharvest losses (PHL) is a key pathway to food and nutrition security in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) (Affognon et al., 2015). Food losses in SSA are influenced by insufficient infrastructure and technology for postharvest handling and storage, limited access to markets and coordinated logistics, and poor knowledge and skills in food handling and preservation techniques (Yamauchi & Takeshima, 2023; Rutta, 2022). The Green Revolution, intended to boost food production with modern farming methods, has unintentionally led to challenges in food distribution. Food losses grow due to longer supply chains and higher consumer incomes, resulting in greater food consumption away from home. Feeding Africa’s growing urban population of 472 million is becoming daunting with the current PHL (Plaisier et al., 2019). The urban population dependent on agricultural food from rural areas is expected to double over the next 25 years, with an annual growth rate of 4% (Lall et al., 2017). It is essential to tackle PHL in SSA to reduce the food deficit and ensure food and nutrition security (Affognon et al., 2015). SSA countries can reduce food losses by tackling the underlying causes of PHL and implementing effective strategies like upgrading infrastructure and technology for postharvest management, improving market access and transportation, and educating individuals on proper food preservation methods.

Livelihoods and welfare: Findings from the seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (January–June 2024)

The seventh round of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationally and regionally representative phone survey, was implemented between April–June 2024 with a recall period covering January to June of the same year. It follows six rounds of surveys that were carried out since the beginning of December 2021. This report documents livelihood and welfare dynamics over this survey period. Overall, household welfare has deteriorated in Myanmar considerably over the past two years. In terms of income sources, household farming, farm wages, and non-farm businesses are the most important livelihoods in rural areas while non-farm businesses and non-farm salary employment are most important in urban areas. However, in terms of primary livelihoods, we witness a structural shift in livelihood profiles of rural households with fewer households identifying non-farm business income are their primary livelihood (4.1 percentage points decrease) while more households rely on farm wages (2.9 percentage points increase). There are also fewer reported sources of income with households on average reporting 1.6 income sources, compared to almost 2 years ago. The primary source of income is shifting to low-paying livelihoods like wage work, with remittances and assistance serve as supplementary income sources. A combination of increasing prices and growing reliance on low paying livelihoods over the past years led to a significant decline in household purchasing power. Median real household income per adult equivalent per day declined by 8.4 percent over the past year between the first half of 2023 and 2024 and by 18.2 percent over the two-year period between the first half of 2022 and 2024. Over the same period, the headcount rate of poverty increased to 63.6 percent in the first half of 2024 from 60.9 percent a year back in 2023 and 56.2 percent two years back in 2022. Wage earning households continue to be extremely vulnerable with the lowest median real daily income per adult equivalent as well as the livelihood category with the highest level of poverty. With respect to states/regions, poverty is the highest in states engulfed by high levels of conflict, for example, Rakhine, Chin and Kayah. A notable trend in recent years is the faster increase in urban poverty. Urban poverty increased by 9.2 percentage points over the past year from the first half of 2023 to the first half of 2024, while it increased by 14.7 percentage points over the past two years from the first half of 2022 to first half of 2024. On the other hand, rural poverty only increased by 0.2 percentage points in the past year and 4.6 percentage points in the past two years. There are only a few strategies helping households stay out of poverty, including earning income from farming (which has partially benefited from higher output prices), migrating with the whole household, and receiving assistance or remittances. The presence of remittance income significantly reduces a household’s probability of being poor by a notable 21 percentage points. There are many inter-linked factors that have led to the deterioration in welfare in Myanmar in recent years, including escalating conflict, macroeconomic mismanagement and inflation in particular, the breakdown of social protection, and the absence or deterioration of many other critical services normally provided by the state, including healthcare and nutrition, education, agricultural extension, financial programs for the poor, infrastructure development and social protection.

How programme design and local context shape the lasting effects of cash and food transfers

A transfer programme in Bangladesh led to sustained consumption increases and reduced poverty four years post-programme, but design and context mattered. Cash and food transfer programmes in low- and middle-income countries have been shown to be highly effective in increasing household consumption and reducing household poverty in the short term ​(Bastagli et al. 2016, Hidrobo et al. 2018, ​Borga and D’Ambrosio 2021, Ravallion 2016​​). But evidence on whether they sustain longer-term impacts after programmes end is more mixed. Some studies of transfer programmes show significant sustained medium- to long-term impacts on consumption and poverty (​e.g. Carneiro et al. 2021, Stoeffler et al. 2020, ​Macours et al. 2022​)​, but others show effects fading out (e.g. Handa et al. 2019, Cahyadi et al. 2020, Haushofer and Shapiro 2018 ​)​. Some interventions combining transfers with additional components such as cash “plus” programmes or multi-faceted graduation models sustain impacts on consumption four to ten years post-intervention (Bandiera et al. 2017, Banerjee et al. 2022), while others do not (Brune et al. 2022).

Wholesalers, wholesale markets, and symbiosis with the emerging logistics sector

This paper is a summary review of empirical knowledge about wholesalers and wholesale markets in symbiosis with 3PLS (third party logistics) in developing regions and the implications for policy. The primary geographic focus is on developing and emerging market economies (Africa, Asia, Central and Eastern Europe, and Latin America), but also provides a comparison with the evidence regarding the evolution and roles 3PLS and wholesale markets in agrifood value chain development in the United States and Western Europe. Our review on this subject is timely given that the midstream segments of output value chains have been identified as an important theme about which there is inadequate research and policy debate (Barrett et al. 2022) despite their importance to consumers and farmers. A crucial segment of the midstream is the wholesale sector. Estimates are that much, if not most, produce is handled by wholesalers and wholesale markets in developing regions. Moreover, there has been growth and then transformation of the wholesale sector with urbanization and emerging modernization of retail as well as impacts of important public investments and regulatory policies. Finally, there remain important policy challenges and research gaps related to this topic that are an urgent agenda over the next decade – and beyond.

Food avoidance among breastfeeding mothers in Myanmar and its impacts on maternal dietary quality

Key Findings • This study designed and analyzed two new surveys in Myanmar. The first one is the fifth Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS) round conducted from April to June 2023, in which 12,953 respondents were surveyed, including 5,512 women of reproductive age (15-49). The second is the Rural Urban Food Security Survey conducted in 2020, in which respondents were women who were pregnant in round 1 (June-July 2020) in Yangon and participated in at least five of those six rounds. • Forty percent of all Myanmar women aged 15-49 believe that breastfeeding mothers should avoid at least one healthy food, with vegetables the most widely cited food to be avoided, followed by fruits, fish, meat and beans/nuts. • Beliefs were prevalent throughout Myanmar’s diverse regions and across both genders, but more common in majority Buddhist regions (and less common in majority Christian regions). • Beliefs in food avoidance during breastfeeding were less prevalent among women with more formal education and nutritional knowledge, and with exposure to nutrition counselling from community health workers. • Mothers in the Yangon panel saw minimum dietary diversity of women (MDD-W) fall by 46 percentage points from pregnancy to the first month after birth, stemming from significant declines in eight of the ten MDD-W food groups. • MDD-W recovered somewhat over the second to fifth months after birth but was still significantly lower up to the sixth month after birth.

Drivers of agrifood system transformation in Odisha

Globally, agrifood systems (AFS) are experiencing rapid transformation driven by a range of factors. This transformation process is also observed across several states of India, including Odisha. This study develops a conceptual framework to examine the key drivers of AFS transformation in Odisha. Analytical tools, including trend analysis, the Simpson Index, and the Just-Pope Yield function, were used to assess the impact of various determinants of changes in the state’s AFS. The report presents an analysis and breakdown of growth trends in the agrifood system over the last two decades, identifies constraints and opportunities for future growth, and evaluates the coherence of government agricultural policies, offering direction for future policies to manage and motivate AFS transformation in Odisha. Odisha’s AFS is characterized by diverse stakeholders, with smallholder farmers facing significant challenges, particularly from climate-induced shocks and the volatility in agricultural gross value added (GVA). Among farming households, wage income now surpasses earnings from traditional agricultural activities, such as crop cultivation and livestock production. Several demographic and economic factors, including population growth, urbanization, and rising incomes, have profoundly influenced the structure and operations of the AFS, as evidenced by increasing demand for higher-value food products, including processed foods. The adoption of innovative technologies, such as Bt cotton and climate-resilient crop varieties, has enhanced farm productivity and profitability, driving crop diversification. Increased use of purchased farm inputs, such as high-yielding variety seeds, inorganic fertilizers, pesticides, and agricultural machinery, has further shaped Odisha’s agrifood landscape. Government policies, including higher annual budget allocations for irrigation infrastructure, climate-resilient technologies, subsidized credit and insurance, and farmer welfare programs, have been instrumental in shaping Odisha’s AFS. However, despite strong growth, the fisheries sector remains underfunded compared to other subsectors. Improved rural infrastructure—such as expanded road and irrigation networks, grain and cold storage facilities, mobile connectivity, and improved market access—has contributed positively to AFS transformation in the state. Additionally, rural organizations, including farmer producer organizations (FPO), self-help groups (SHG), Krishi Vigyan Kendra (KVK) and agricultural extension centers, have played a crucial role in advancing the state agricultural initiatives, such as Shree Anna Abhiyan, the special programme for promotion of millets in tribal areas of Odisha. The increasing number of hotels and restaurants, coupled with rising investments in the agrifood industry, underscores the expanding role of the agro-processing sector in Odisha’s economy. To revitalize rural economies, efforts should focus on boosting rural non-farm sectors, enhancing farm productivity, and strengthening infrastructure, particularly logistics and cold chain facilities. Investments in agrifood processing, promoting digital marketing, and fostering climate-resilient technologies are also important. Small farmers need support through strengthened FPOs, better access to quality seeds and mechanization, especially women farmers. Policies should be modified to promote increased crop and enterprise diversification, fishery sector growth, and organic farming. Agrifood parks and research in processing technologies can increase value addition and promote entrepreneurship within the AFS. Finally, solar energy integration will ensure sustainability and economic growth across agrifood value chains.

Characteristics of community seed schemes for grains and legumes: Insights from northern Nigeria

CONTEXT: Despite the significant roles that intermediary seed systems play in the supply of quality seeds in developing countries, including Africa south of the Sahara, the knowledge gap remains generally substantial regarding the general characteristics and seed quality control performance of intermediary seed systems such as community seed schemes (CSS), which still operate predominantly outside the formal seed systems. OBJECTIVE: We aim to narrow the knowledge gap on seed production practices implemented by CSS, their economic and technical characteristics, the extent of seed quality control achieved, and potential challenges CSS is facing. METHODS: Using primary survey data of seed producers of key grains (maize, rice, and sorghum) and legumes (cowpea and soybean) from 380 CSS in Kano state in northern Nigeria, we qualitatively assess origins and drivers of their growth, extent of seed production, relations with upstream actors (breeder and foundation seed providers) and downstream actors (seed buyers), economic structures of their seed production, aspects of quality control measures they engage, and potential roles of external support, such as training on the implementation of these quality control measures. RESULTS AND CONCLUSIONS: We discovered that many of the interviewed CSS have emerged endogenously, taking up seed production to address the challenges in access to quality seeds in their locality. Their seed production has often grown into viable businesses that have provided potentially significant additions to their incomes. Oftentimes, these CSS implemented some seed quality control measures, including making closer visual checks of seeds, checking germination rates, and bagging/packing seeds, among others. However, fuller seed quality control may be significantly skill-intensive, and most CSS still do not implement many of the recommended measures under some of the intermediary quality assurance standards, such as Quality Declared Seed. Our qualitative assessment suggests that future support for CSS can focus on technical support to raise the ability to engage in broader categories of quality assurance activities in economically viable ways and to improve the awareness and knowledge of different varieties and access to foundation seeds. SIGNIFICANCE: The quality assurance provided by existing CSS in Nigeria may be relatively limited, particularly in proper maintenance of the seed production field and the quality of original seeds that CSS intend to multiply. Providing external support through training and technical assistance can be an effective way to transform community seed schemes into critical providers of seed quality assurance in the intermediate seed system and to fill gaps in the formal seed system.

Conflict, aspirations, and women’s empowerment: Household survey evidence from farmer-herder conflicts in Nigeria

Using original survey data from three states in rural, southwestern Nigeria, this study examines the relationship between conflict intensity at various distances and the empowerment and aspiration levels of women whose households are primarily engaged in farming. We analyze geo-coded data on violent clashes between ethnic groups that primarily herd livestock for their livelihood and those that primarily farm crops; these clashes are growing more frequent across West Africa with climate-induced land degradation, as herding populations are moving further south in search of grazing land. Our outcomes of interest include women’s economic and social aspirations, and women’s economic, social, and political behaviors that could impact their long-run empowerment. We find that exposure to higher conflict intensity is closely linked to adverse outcomes, including income loss, assault, and forced migration. Higher conflict intensity is also associated with lower women’s economic and social aspirations, though social aspirations are more affected by proximate conflicts, while economic aspirations are more affected by more distant conflicts. Women’s economic, social, and political activities also vary with conflict-affectedness. With more conflict nearby, women are more likely to own their own off-farm businesses and less likely to own an off-farm business in which they share ownership with their husband. With more exposure to distant conflicts, women devote less time to off-farm labor and more time to agricultural labor. Near conflict, women are less likely to be members of mutual aid groups and to contact government officials and more likely to engage local security groups for protection and to be members of political parties. These differences could have long-run implications for women’s empowerment.

Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works program in Ethiopia

Violent conflict and political instability are escalating worldwide, with Africa experiencing some of the most severe challenges. The region, home to 60% of the world’s poor (World Bank 2023), saw statebased armed conflict events nearly triple between 2007 and 2023 (Rustad 2024), while protests more than quadrupled from 2007 to 2019 (OECD 2021). Over this period, poverty reduction in Africa has been particularly sluggish in fragile and conflict-affected areas (Beegle et al. 2018a), likely due to the substantial economic losses associated with violent conflict and civil unrest.

Irrigation technologies, Use of Solar Pumps and Gendered Impacts

The CGIAR Nexus Gains initiative supported a survey on irrigation solar pumps in Uganda to examine how solar pump ownership impacts the livelihoods of women and men in rural areas. This questionnaire was utilized to collect data from both beneficiaries and non-beneficiaries of the World Bank solar pump subsidy project, implemented by the Ugandan Ministry of Agriculture, Fisheries, and Animal Industry. The subsidy project required applicants to: -Contribute 25% of the pump acquisition cost. -Have access to a water source. -Own arable land. -At the time of the survey (November–December 2024), the project had expanded to all four regions of Uganda (Central, Eastern, Western, and Northern), covering 66 of the country’s 122 districts. The survey was conducted in all four regions, sampling eight districts (two per region). Due to budget constraints, the survey included a sample of 480 households, comprising 280 beneficiaries and 200 non-beneficiaries. In each household, both an adult female and an adult male were interviewed to capture gender-differentiated perspectives. Questionnaire Protocol Modules: -Household Composition -Irrigation Use -Solar Pump and Non-Solar Pump Characteristics -Women Empowerment -Energy Insecurity -Water Insecurity -Food Insecurity -Nutrition and Dietary Diversity -Production and Input -Assets -Markets and Marketing -Access to Rural Services -Access to Pump Repair Technical Services -This comprehensive survey design aims to explore the multifaceted impacts of solar pump adoption on household livelihoods, with a particular focus on gendered outcomes.

IFPRI Malawi maize market report, November 2024

The Monthly Maize Market Report was developed by researchers at IFPRI Malawi to provide clear and accurate information on the variation of maize prices in selected markets throughout Malawi. All prices are reported in Malawi Kwacha (K).

The true costs of food production in Viet Nam

Key takeaways True cost accounting allows for the measurement of hidden impacts of food production on the environment, human health, and society. • Our findings show that at the national level for all crop sectors: o Environmental externalities account for 73% and social for 27% of external cost structure. o Major environmental impact sources are land occupation, air pollution, and climate change. o Major social impact sources are underpayment of farm workers and the incidence of child labor. • In NATURE+ sites in Sa Pa and Mai Son districts for the crop sector: o External costs represent about 24% of all household crop production costs. o Environmental externalities (61%) are greater than social (39%). o Land occupation is the most important external impact source, followed by soil degradation and climate change. o Under earning (underpayment of workers and/or low famer profits) are significant social costs, followed by the gender wage gap and the incidence of child labor.

The true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways • True cost accounting allows for the measurement of hidden impacts of food production on the environment, human health, and society. • Our findings show that at the national level for all crop sectors: o Social costs account for 90% and environmental for 10% of external cost structure. o Major social cost sources are underpayment, child labor, and occupational health risks. o Major environmental cost sources are land-use expansion and climate change. • Findings at farm level in NATURE+ Initiative sites in Kajiado, Kisumu, and Vihiga, for the crop sector show that: o Direct costs (70% of true costs) are predominantly hired labor and seed costs o External costs represent about 30% of the true costs o Social externalities costs (84%) are greater than environmental costs (16%) o Forced labor is the most important impact, followed by child labor, underpayment, and gender wage gaps o Environmental externalities include land occupation (land use) and soil degradation

How do policy environments influence technology adoption? Insights from Nigeria’s pod borer resistant (PBR) cowpea experience

Policymakers are increasingly considering the promise of modern biotechnology, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to help solve development problems in health, agriculture, and other fields (Zambrano et al., 2022). However, debates persist around health and environmental implications (National Academies of Sciences, 2016; Raman, 2017; Smyth et al., 2021). The regulation of GMOs varies globally, with some countries implementing outright bans or imposing stringent controls (Sarkar et al., 2021; Yali, 2022). A recent study examines the Nigerian policy environment for Pod Borer Resistant (PBR) cowpea, which has been genetically engineered to resist the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) [Mockshell et al., (unpublished)]. Legume pod borers significantly reduce cowpea yield and quality, with losses of up to 80% reported (Andam et al., 2024; Mockshell et al., 2024). This policy note summarizes the findings of the paper, providing insights to guide policy development around the adoption of biotech food crops in Nigeria and other countries in Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). The primary research question is: Is there an enabling policy environment for PBR cowpea and what factors contribute to it?

Diets, Fruit and Vegetable Intake and Nutritional Status in Tanzania: Scoping Review

Globally, the intake of fruit and vegetables (F&V) is far below the recommended levels, contributing to various health challenges including micronutrient deficiencies and non‐communicable diseases. In Tanzania, where the triple burden of malnutrition persists, there is a need to identify gaps in evidence, better understand diets and F&V intake and identify promising interventions for improved intake. We conducted a scoping review to summarize the evidence on dietary intake, F&V intake and nutritional status in Tanzania. This included three separate literature searches in PubMed covering the years 2012–2023. A total of 62, 37 and 15 articles met predefined eligibility criteria for the review of overall diet, dietary intake of F&V and nutritional status, respectively. Identified studies suggest that overall dietary practices among all population groups were primarily based on carbohydrate‐rich foods, complementary feeding practices were suboptimal among young children and a low proportion of women of reproductive age (WRA) and pregnant and lactating women achieved minimum dietary diversity for women (MDD‐W). Across all population groups, F&V intake was below the recommended 400 g per day. Analysis of nutritional status in Tanzania in population representative surveys showed high stunting prevalence in children below 5 years of age, and a high prevalence of overweight and obesity among WRA, particularly in urban areas. Additional research is needed to understand better the complex interactions between diet and nutrition and health outcomes, and to identify efficient and cost‐effective strategies to improve overall dietary quality, including increasing F&V intake.

Food system financing vulnerability index

Food systems are integral to ensuring access to sustainable healthy diets for all, thereby supporting public health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. However, these systems are increasingly vulnerable to a range of shocks and stressors, from economic downturns and financial constraints to the impacts of cli mate change and pandemics. One of the most critical determinants of food system resilience is the ability to effectively manage financing vulnerabilities. Financing vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of food system components to performance degradation due to inadequate, inefficient, or uneven allocation of financial re sources. Addressing this issue is paramount for enhancing the system’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions while maintaining functionality.

Food Security Simulator – Ethiopia

The Food Security Simulator Ethiopia (FSSE) is an innovative and easy-to-use, MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks, along with changes in preferences, on food security and people’s diets. The Simulator is an ideal tool for first-cut forward-looking evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner. The tool allows users to enter positive and negative price or income changes in percentage terms and provides simulated changes for a diverse set of food-consumption- and diet-quality-related indicators. In addition to detailed tabular presentations of all simulation results by household income quintile and residential area, key indicator results are summarized in concise overview tables and visualized in graphs for easy export and use in reports. The underlying data include estimates from representative household survey data and rigorous, sophisticated food demand models to capture consumer behavior.

Constraints to agricultural mechanization in Ethiopia: The case of solar irrigation pumps

Agriculture and food production in Ethiopia are dominated by smallholder farmers and characterized by a low input-low output system. Mechanization of agriculture—in particular, the widespread adoption of tractors for land preparation and motorized pumps for irrigation—is considered by many to be the key to breaking this low-productivity system. Agricultural mechanization can improve the livelihoods of smallholders by reducing drudgery and postharvest losses and by increasing the efficiency of farm operations. However, mechanization rates have increased only slowly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Women’s Voice and Agency in the MGNREGA in Odisha: Baseline Data

This dataset contains baseline information for the project “Women’s Voice and Agency in the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in Odisha,” conducted in April-May 2023 across five districts in the eastern coastal state of Odisha, India. The study aimed to evaluate interventions designed to enhance women’s voice and agency in selecting assets to be created under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), a national workfare program. The baseline data focused on female respondents actively participating in MGNREGA, capturing their demographic and socioeconomic profiles, experiences, and knowledge of the program, as well as their perspectives on agency and voice. Additional interviews were conducted with Gram Rozgar Sewaks, the primary program functionaries, and community representatives familiar with village-level facilities. The sample included 50 Gram Panchayats (villages) from each of the five districts, targeting 15 female respondents per Gram Panchayat, for a total of 3,750 intended respondents. However, due to community refusals in one district, interviews could not be conducted in 30 of the 50 Gram Panchayats, resulting in a final sample size of approximately 3,426 female respondents, 220 Gram Rozgar Sewaks, and 229 community-level interviews.

Rethinking responses to the world’s water crises

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Dry Season 2024): Farm commercialization and farm services

 The security situation in Myanmar continues to negatively impact commercialization for crop farmers. During the monsoon season interview period (July–September 2024): a) Thirty-one percent of farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’. b) Twenty-three percent expressed serious security concerns to move around in their village tract or township. c) Seven percent stated that conflict prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields in their area. d) One percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. e) Eleven percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction.  Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area – the country’s rice bowl – experiencing relatively better conditions.  Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about one-fifth and 40 percent of farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the dry season and monsoon season of 2024 respectively. This situation during the monsoon is exacerbated in almost all of the states and regions, especially in the conflict-affected areas of Kayah, Shan, and Chin, with around 60 percent of the farmers reporting fuel scarcity.  Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2024 dry season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 5 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers and seeds – a higher share than in the 2023 dry season – while 16 percent reported problems in securing agricultural labor.  Farmers in conflict-affected areas face more obstacles in farm commercialization, with agricultural inputs being much less available.  Input prices rose during the 2024 dry season compared to the same period in 2023. Mechanized plowing costs increased by 29 percent, while hired labor costs saw a rise of 33 percent for men and 32 percent for women. Urea prices experienced a modest increase of 3 percent. In the 2024 monsoon season, wages surged further compared to the preceding dry season, with men’s wages rising by 16 percent and women’s by 17 percent. These recent increases may be partly attributed to the introduction of the new Military Service Law.  Agricultural service delivery continues to decline, with fewer farmers able to access credit and agricultural extension services compared to previous years during the dry season of 2024.  All crop prices increased substantially compared to the previous dry season. While paddy prices increased by 14 percent, non-paddy crop prices increased significantly more.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS), Round 5

The Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (MAPS) is a nationwide phone panel consisting of approximately 4,663 households. The objective of the survey is to collect data on farm characteristics and agricultural assets, area and crops planted, access to inputs, crop marketing, and constraints in agricultural activities. The respondents interviewed are a sub-sample of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey. A novel sampling strategy in combination with the development of household and population weights allows for estimates that are nationally, regionally, and urban/rural representative. MAPS Round 5 survey was implemented by phone by Myanmar Survey Research (MSR) from January to March, 2024. The MAPS collected information on household characteristics, overall area cultivated, crops grown, security problems, input use and farm management practices, yields, sales, output prices, and marketing behavior. MAPS Round 5 focused on the agricultural activities of crop farmers during the monsoon of 2023.

What kind of financing does agriculture need to create jobs and prevent climate change?

It is expected that in 2050 there will be nearly 10 billion people in the world. As the population grows, we will need more farmers to produce more food. But the world’s food system is also a huge contributor of greenhouse gas emissions. This episode discusses how we can support small farmers and enterprises by providing the finance they need to produce food and supporting the jobs of the future, while reducing emissions.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan’s food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Gender and age employment gaps within agrifood value chains in Bangladesh and Uganda

Using data collected with a novel sampling approach for agrifood value chains in Bangladesh (rice and potato) and Uganda (arabica coffee and soybean), this study documented meaningful gender and age employment gaps within intermediary sections of the value chains, which include trading , processing, and wholesaling activities. While agrifood value chains have potential to generate new jobs and close gaps for both women’s and youth employment in low- and middle-income countries, the study identifies large gender gaps in both operators of intermediary firms and those employed by these firms, as well as an age gap, with few youth operating intermediary firms. The brief offers recommendations for addressing systemic barriers that contribute to gender and age gaps in this “hidden middle” of agrifood value chains.

Elites’ response to women’s action committees and local services in Nigeria

This study examines how local elites respond in the face of two interventions: a women’s training designed to strengthen women’s sense of collective efficacy and leadership skills, and a complementary training program for women’s husbands, designed to encourage and support them to become champions of women’s voice and agency. The study utilized a three-arm randomized control trial (RCT) carried out in Ogun, Osun, and Oyo states of southwest Nigeria in 2023 to analyze elite responsiveness to hypothetical petitions presented by both women and men on key community development issues. Our first intervention (treatment group 1 (T1)), the women’s training intervention, provided intensive instruction in leadership, organizing, and advocacy. It was designed to reduce psychological barriers to women’s political participation by raising women’s sense of collective efficacy and conferring skills to help women overcome these barriers. This intervention was part of a coordinated set of field experiments in five countries—collectively known as Metaketa V. Our second intervention (T2), the men’s training intervention, emphasized the benefits of women’s political participation for families and communities and focused on equipping men to be advocates for women’s empowerment and gender equality in public spaces—underscoring that women’s empowerment is not a zero-sum game.

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Scaling up experiential learning for water management

Unsustainable water management is associated with reduced agricultural production and poverty, reduced ecosystem services and resilience, and insufficient and unreliable domestic water access. As a common pool resource with high subtractability and low excludability, water is easily depleted if no effective coordination exists among users to ensure provision and regulate withdrawals. This creates one of the greatest challenges for people living in semi-arid and arid environments. The majority of India’s population is estimated to face physical water scarcity for at least part of the year, with 600 million people living in areas of high to extreme water stress. As water management is highly complex, with many users sharing the same resource but often unknown to each other, stopping overuse is difficult, especially when it is more profitable to irrigate water-consumptive crops than water-conserving crops. Farmers, policymakers, donors, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in India have all articulated the need for more effective tools to improve water management and governance. Coordination and effective management of water resources are crucial to sustain agricultural productivity, but so far progress has been disappointing. Technical tools such as crop water budgeting can play an important role in enabling communities to manage their water resources, but unless communities have the knowledge and motivation to use these tools, their application and impacts are limited. To date, attention to the question of how knowledge about collectively available water is translated into effective management through collective action, norms and rules has been insufficient. Blueprint rules introduced in a top-down manner have not changed water users’ behavior. However, there is strong evidence that effective community rules and their enforcement can motivate such behavior. The better these rules fit the social-ecological context and internalized norms, the more effective they will be. Participatory development approaches have addressed these challenges. The key question is how to promote such coordination, rules, and behavior in a participatory way without external imposition and in a low-cost manner that allows largescale implementation.

Nutrient-dense foods and diverse diets are important for ensuring adequate nutrition across the life course

The world faces a global challenge of how to meet the nutritional needs of a diverse global population through diets. This paper defines the relative nutritional needs across each stage of the life cycle to support human health and identifies who is nutritionally vulnerable. Findings in this paper suggest that there are biological nutritional vulnerabilities stemming from high micronutrient needs per calorie in certain phases of the life cycle, particularly for infants and young children, women of reproductive age, pregnant and lactating women, and older adults, particularly older women. The paper demonstrates the role of micronutrient-dense animal-source foods and plant-source foods important in meeting essential nutrient needs to support healthy growth, development, and aging across vulnerable stages of the life cycle.

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

As floods increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, anticipatory action (AA) programs offer a promising approach to mitigate their impacts. However, there is limited research about how AA programming can address the specific needs of women, who often face heightened vulnerabilities during disasters. This paper applies the Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform (RBET) framework to examine gender dynamics in AA programming through case studies in Nepal and Nigeria—two flood-prone countries where AA initiatives have been piloted. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, local advocacy groups, and direct beneficiaries of flood programs, we assess barriers and enabling conditions for AA to reach, benefit, and empower women and broader opportunities for transformation of gender norms and social inequalities. Our findings reveal key implementation challenges, including limited funding, weak integration with broader disaster risk reduction efforts, and inadequate early warning systems. However, we also identify practical strategies for improving AA’s gender responsiveness, such as relying on individual rather than household-level data, providing accessible early warning information, offering aid modalities that meet women’s specific needs (such as dignity kits), ensuring women’s participation in community decision-making, and facilitating ongoing inclusive household and community dialogues in flood-prone communities rather than only responding to specific flood warnings. The paper concludes with recommendations for scaling up gender-inclusive AA programming to enhance resilience and reduce the disproportionate impacts of flooding on women.

The technopolitics of agronomic knowledge and tropical(izing) vegetables in Brazil

This article critically analyzes the social and political factors behind the advancement of technoscientific development in modern Brazilian agriculture. In the second half of the 20th century, Brazil underwent a rapid industrialization in the agricultural sector by more than doubling productivity in key global commodities and a widespread migration of people from rural to urban areas. Most observers point to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) as the technological engine that drove the industrialization of Brazilian agriculture. Existing approaches to analyze technoscientific development tend to overlook the role of the environment and individual scientists in enacting change. I argue that, especially in the case of agriculture, technoscientific development hinges on the extent to which the environment is disregarded or embraced by those who have the institutional support and capacity to innovate. To support my argument, I draw on two contrasting cases of crop development spearheaded by Embrapa scientists: the tropicalization of the carrot and participatory research on non-conventional vegetables. Through those two cases, the article demonstrates how the general and specific, the transnational and local, and the industrial and agroecological are all key contrasting factors for understanding technoscientific development in agriculture. This research is based on extensive interviews and participant observation at Embrapa’s vegetable research center near Brasilia, Brazil.

Compliance with food safety measures and their economic impact on smallholder dairy farmers: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic plains of India

This study examines the adoption and economic impact of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional farm-level data from three key states in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, in 2023. The majority of the farmers were operating on marginal and small plots. A Food Safety Index (FSI) derived from 71 distinct practices was used as a quantitative measure of adoption of compliance with FSM. The study assigns 0.60, 0.23, and 0.17 wt to microbiological, physical, and chemical safety measures, respectively, to derive FSI. Determinants of compliance with FSM were analysed using multiple linear regression and ordered logistic model, while Generalized propensity score (GPS) was used to assess the economic impact of compliance with FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are adopting a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the FSI. Various socio-economic and demographic factors, such as education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure, significantly influence the adoption of FSM. The impact assessment reveals that compliance with FSM correlates with milk prices, productivity, and profitability. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements in milk productivity. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, strengthening formal marketing channels, and raising awareness through training.

Suboptimal nutritional status of school-age children in Addis Ababa: evidence from the analysis of socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral factors

Background: School-aged children (6–14 years old) are susceptible to malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. Environmental and behavioral factors greatly influence their nutritional status. This study aimed to examine the association between dietary factors and the nutritional status of school-aged children attending public and private schools in Addis Ababa. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study design was employed from March to August 2023. A total of 309 study participants were randomly selected from 10 schools. Data were entered into Epidata version 3.1 and exported to SPSS version 23.0 for analysis. WHO Anthro Plus 1.0.4 was used to assess the measurements of weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ), and BMI-for-age (BAZ) for overweight, stunting, and underweight, while wasting was assessed using MUAC. A Poisson regression model was used to determine the association between predictor variables and stunting, wasting, underweight, and overweight, with adjusted prevalence ratios (APR). APR and 95% CI were used to identify statistically significant variables. Results: Findings revealed the prevalence of wasting (15%), stunting (24%), underweight (36%), and overweight (19%) among school-aged children. Factors influencing stunting include marital status, house ownership, education level of parents/caregivers, child sex, and meal skipping. Wasting was linked to wealth index, child age, dietary diversity, dietary habits, water access, and toilet facilities. Underweight predictors include parent/caregiver age, marital status, and meal frequency. Moreover, school type appeared as a significant factor for overweight. Conclusions: The overall nutritional status of school-aged children is suboptimal, influenced by sociodemographic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Addressing these factors through targeted interventions is crucial, particularly for the most vulnerable groups.

Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan

By applying Resilience Index Measurement Analysis to data from Tajikistan, this paper measures food insecurity resilience capacity. Another objective of this paper is to construct and integrate coping strategies into resilience discussions. The final objective is to analyze the role of resilience capacity and coping strategy in food security with an Instrumental Variable approach. Our results generally confirm that resilience and coping strategies increase food security, determined by food expenditure, household adequacy of fruit and vegetable consumption, and household food expenditure share. Moreover, resilience capacity has a moderating role in mitigating negative impacts of shocks on food security.

Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine women’s vulnerability to climate change

We provide an application of machine learning to identify the distributional consequences of climate change in Malawi. We compare climate impact estimates based on drought indicators established objectively from the k-means algorithm to more traditional measures. Young women affected by drought were 5 percentage points more likely to be married by 18 than those living in nondrought areas. Our approach generates robust results when varying the number of clusters and definition of treatment status. In some cases, we find the design using k-means to define treatment is more likely to satisfy the assumptions underlying the difference-in-differences strategy than when using arbitrary thresholds. Projections from the estimates indicate future drought risk may lead to larger declines in labor productivity due to women’s engagement in early age marriage than other factors affecting their participation rates. Under the extreme representative concentration pathway scenario, drought exposure encourages the exit of 3.3 million women workers by 2100.

Impact of adoption of climate smart agriculture practices on farmer’s income in semi-arid regions of Karnataka

Context Semi-arid regions are one of the most vulnerable regions of climate change to agriculture. Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India has warmed by 0.4 °C with declining trends in average annual rainfall by 10 % over the last century, is highly vulnerable to climate change. To adapt with this climate change impact, Government of Karnataka along with CGIAR institutes and agriculture universities had initiated the Bhoo-Samrudhi program in 2013 to promote climate smart agriculture practices in the state. The primary aim of this program was to enhance crop productivity by 25 % and farmers income by 20 %. Objective Firstly, this study aims to identify who adopts CSA practices and at what scale? Secondly, how much additional income farmers earn by adopting CSA practices as compared the non-CSA but improved agricultural practices, and the traditional practices. Thirdly, this study estimates marginal increase in farmers income at difference scale of adoption of CSA practices. Finally, this study identifies possible challenges and opportunities in upscaling the adoption of CSA practices in the state. Methods A primary survey using a semi-structured questionnaire was conducted among the selected 1466 farmer households in four districts of Karnataka (Bidar, Chikballapur, Dharwad, and Udupi). The sample consisted of 833 adopter farmers and 633 non-adopter farmers. Non-adopter farmers were those who were following traditional practice of crop cultivation and rest of the farmers are treated as adopters. The study used multinomial logistic regression to explore what made adopter farmers different from non-adopter farmers. Further, we had applied propensity score matching and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment methods to estimate the impact of scale of adoption of CSA practices on farmers income. Results and conclusions The results highlighted that landholding size, education levels, and asset ownership likely affect the adoption of various levels of CSA practice intensification. Moreover, the impact of adoption on farmers’ income is estimated to be Rs. 4845 for low intensified, Rs. 6801 for medium intensified, and Rs. 7858 for highly intensified farmers, in comparison to the improved technology adopters. Therefore, we can conclude that adoption of single technology may not be able to solve the problem, instead technology intensification can be a more effective mechanism to deal with the vulnerabilities and create resilience against climate change. Significance Technology adoption has been a proven method to improve agricultural productivity as well as income of the farmers in semi-arid regions across the globe. However, an upcoming method to improve food and livelihood security is through sustainable technological intensification. Thus, this study contributes to providing empirical and evidence-based policy suggestions to promote technology intensification instead of just promoting one single technology. Therefore, technology intensification can be considered as a package of multiple technologies for the farmers to improve their crop and land productivity, and to gain higher economic return.

Indicators for monitoring and evaluating research-for-development: A critical review of a system in use

Research-for-development (R4D) refers to research activities specifically designed to address critical social, environmental, and economic challenges and improve human well-being. It is essential to have well-designed indicators to monitor and evaluate progress, guide decision-making, and support learning and improvement. This paper reviews and compares two sets of indicators in use by a large international research consortium: i) ad hoc indicators developed by and for individual (non-pooled) projects, and ii) a standard set of indicators designed as part of a common results framework for a new portfolio of research initiatives. We assess both sets of indicators against the SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound) criteria, identify common errors in indicator formulation, compare the thematic coverage of the two sets of indicators, and derive lessons for improved indicator formulation. A large proportion of the non-pooled indicators fail to meet the SMART criteria. The indicators in the standard set are stronger, but with scope for improvement, especially in terms of relationship to the result of interest, specification of the indicator, measurability, standardization of outcome indicators, and impact indicators. We recommend having a balanced set of indicators of key outputs, outcomes, and impacts, based on clear and well-defined result statements.

Sustainability considerations are not influencing meat consumption in the US

The consumption of animal-source foods, and particularly red meat from ruminants, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, and loss of biodiversity. Reducing red meat consumption has been identified as a key strategy to mitigate climate change; however, little is known about how to effectively intervene to promote its reduction in the United States (US). This study aimed to examine meat (red, unprocessed, and poultry) and seafood consumption patterns, the factors influencing their consumption (including a reduction in their consumption over time), and how these differed based on socioeconomic variables. The study was conducted through an online survey with a representative sample of the US population (n = 1224) in 2021 using KnowledgePanel®. Overall, we found that most participants reported consuming red meat (78%), processed meat (74%), or poultry (79%) 1–4 times per week, with several differences in consumption patterns based on socio-demographic characteristics. A substantial proportion of the population reported reducing their red (70%) and processed meat (64%) consumption over the previous year, which was much higher than those that reported reducing poultry (34%) or seafood (26%). Key factors influencing red meat reduction were health and price, while environmental sustainability and animal welfare were less important, particularly among certain socio-demographic groups. These findings can help provide insight into how best to frame messaging campaigns aimed at shifting red meat consumption in the US to support climate change mitigation. Focusing on the factors that resonate more with consumers is more likely to lead to shifts in consumption patterns.

Analyzing hypertension and diabetes mellitus status among Bangladeshi adults: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2017–18 data

Self-selection versus population-based sampling for evaluation of an agronomy training program in Uganda

One of the challenges in evaluating the impact of agronomy training programs, particularly on downstream impacts such as yield, is identifying a sample of farmers who are likely to participate in the training. We assess farmers’ participation in a farm business training activity before the agronomy training intervention as a sample identification mechanism. The screening activity was designed to appeal to the same group of farmers targeted by a coffee agronomy training program, while having minimal impact on the program’s goal of increasing coffee yields. A three-session training on farm business management was conducted in 22 study villages in central Uganda. Coffee agronomy training was then offered in half of these villages, based on random assignment. The results show that 52% of coffee farmers who attended the first business training session subsequently attended agronomy training, compared to 22% of those identified through a census. Applying these results to the design of a large ongoing randomised controlled trial, we find that using a self-selected sample reduces the minimum detectable effect of agronomy training on coffee yield to 15.83%, compared to 38% if population-based sampling were used.

Monitoring biofortification program performance and potential for impact: Indicators, methods, and learnings from the commercialization of biofortified crops program in six countries across Africa and Asia

Background Biofortification of staple crops is a food-based strategy to reduce the high global burden of micronutrient deficiencies. Monitoring program performance is essential to ensure biofortification programs have high potential for impact; however, few indicators and methods for doing so are publicly available. Objective We documented the set of standardized indicators and methods used to monitor the Commercialization of Biofortified Crops (CBC) program and reviewed their strengths and limitations. Methods Following the CBC program impact pathway, we identified and defined a set of indicators and corresponding methods. Country-level implementation teams contextualized and operationalized them to monitor 9 country-crop programs (i.e., high iron beans in Kenya and Tanzania, iron pearl millet in India, vitamin A maize in Nigeria and Tanzania, vitamin A cassava in Nigeria, zinc wheat in Pakistan and India, and zinc rice in Bangladesh) from 2020 to 2022. Results Twenty indicators were defined across domains of seed supply, production, availability, awareness, capacity development, advocacy, and consumption of biofortified foods. Data collection methods included external and internal document review, farmer household surveys, rapid market assessments, and modeling. The strengths of these methods were that they were rapid to conduct, low cost, and simple to use. For some methods, the limitations were the potentially reduced accuracy of some results due to the use of external data sources or secondary data inputs and unavailability of data. Conclusions The indicators and methods used in the CBC program are practical and cost effective for monitoring the implementation of biofortification programs because they generate the range of information necessary to understand how effectively a program is delivered and bolster plausibility arguments for attributing observed impacts to program activities. Further testing is needed to confirm their generalizability when applied to different contexts and paired with impact evaluations with the aim of producing publicly available global guidance documents.

Defining and measuring policy coherence for food system transformation: A scoping review

Changes in food systems—across multiple sectors and through all levels of government—are essential for meeting many of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) and other global environmental and health targets. Steering food systems towards common outcomes and ensuring that actions in one area do not undermine progress in another requires policy coherence. This scoping review examines how policy coherence has been broadly defined and measured in areas related to food system transformation to inform conceptualization, definition, and measurement specific to food systems transformation and provide insights for policy and program implementation. We reviewed literature published from January 2000 to December 2022 and identified 47 studies meeting the inclusion criteria. Results show that common features of definitions of policy coherence relevant for food systems are: an emphasis on minimizing tradeoffs and maximizing synergies; policy integration within different areas of government and food systems or across scales (horizontal or vertical coherence); alignment of objectives, interventions, and indicators within a given policy area; and complementarity and consistency of actions and goals within or across sectors of food systems. Measurement methods to date are mainly limited to qualitative policy document review and participatory assessment, with no examples of application at scale. This paper provides a first step towards a definition and measurement approach for policy coherence that can fill this important data gap in monitoring the governance of food systems transformation and synthesizes evidence to guide actions towards greater policy coherence in governing national food systems.

Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not change the risk of violent events, but reduced the likelihood of civil unrest by almost half when compared to non-PSNP districts. These effects are most pronounced during the period 2014–18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions of Ethiopia. Examining mechanisms, we find evidence that the PSNP fostered greater sympathy and satisfaction with the ruling party, making PSNP households less likely to engage in demonstrations. JEL classification: D74, I38, H53, Q34

The role of social assistance in African crises: A systematic literature review

This systematic review examines the effectiveness of social assistance programmes in protecting households in Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change, conflict, and other shocks—during periods of crisis. Despite the significant increase in the number of these programmes over the past two decades, the need for emergency aid remains. Our review focuses on quantitative studies using microdata to assess the impact of these programmes on household income, poverty, assets, and food security outcomes during crises. We find that large, predictable, and consistent transfers are effective in protecting households and building resilience, as they enable households to accumulate buffer stocks and better plan for future shocks. However, challenges with timely implementation often hinder their effectiveness. Cash-plus programmes, which integrate consumption support with livelihood interventions, show particular promise in fostering long-term resilience, though the evidence base remains too limited to draw broader conclusions. JEL classification: O15, H53

Sustainable poverty reduction through social assistance: Modality, context, and complementary programming in Bangladesh

Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end, or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns, to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts.