Publications and Datasets

The true costs of food production in Kenya

Key takeaways • True cost accounting allows for the measurement of hidden impacts of food production on the environment, human health, and society. • Our findings show that at the national level for all crop sectors: o Social costs account for 90% and environmental for 10% of external cost structure. o Major social cost sources are underpayment, child labor, and occupational health risks. o Major environmental cost sources are land-use expansion and climate change. • Findings at farm level in NATURE+ Initiative sites in Kajiado, Kisumu, and Vihiga, for the crop sector show that: o Direct costs (70% of true costs) are predominantly hired labor and seed costs o External costs represent about 30% of the true costs o Social externalities costs (84%) are greater than environmental costs (16%) o Forced labor is the most important impact, followed by child labor, underpayment, and gender wage gaps o Environmental externalities include land occupation (land use) and soil degradation

How do policy environments influence technology adoption? Insights from Nigeria’s pod borer resistant (PBR) cowpea experience

Policymakers are increasingly considering the promise of modern biotechnology, including genetically modified organisms (GMOs) to help solve development problems in health, agriculture, and other fields (Zambrano et al., 2022). However, debates persist around health and environmental implications (National Academies of Sciences, 2016; Raman, 2017; Smyth et al., 2021). The regulation of GMOs varies globally, with some countries implementing outright bans or imposing stringent controls (Sarkar et al., 2021; Yali, 2022). A recent study examines the Nigerian policy environment for Pod Borer Resistant (PBR) cowpea, which has been genetically engineered to resist the legume pod borer (Maruca vitrata) [Mockshell et al., (unpublished)]. Legume pod borers significantly reduce cowpea yield and quality, with losses of up to 80% reported (Andam et al., 2024; Mockshell et al., 2024). This policy note summarizes the findings of the paper, providing insights to guide policy development around the adoption of biotech food crops in Nigeria and other countries in Africa South of the Sahara (SSA). The primary research question is: Is there an enabling policy environment for PBR cowpea and what factors contribute to it?

Women’s Voice and Agency in the MGNREGA in Odisha: Baseline Data

This dataset contains baseline information for the project “Women’s Voice and Agency in the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA) in Odisha,” conducted in April-May 2023 across five districts in the eastern coastal state of Odisha, India. The study aimed to evaluate interventions designed to enhance women’s voice and agency in selecting assets to be created under the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act (MGNREGA), a national workfare program. The baseline data focused on female respondents actively participating in MGNREGA, capturing their demographic and socioeconomic profiles, experiences, and knowledge of the program, as well as their perspectives on agency and voice. Additional interviews were conducted with Gram Rozgar Sewaks, the primary program functionaries, and community representatives familiar with village-level facilities. The sample included 50 Gram Panchayats (villages) from each of the five districts, targeting 15 female respondents per Gram Panchayat, for a total of 3,750 intended respondents. However, due to community refusals in one district, interviews could not be conducted in 30 of the 50 Gram Panchayats, resulting in a final sample size of approximately 3,426 female respondents, 220 Gram Rozgar Sewaks, and 229 community-level interviews.

Food Security Simulator – Ethiopia

The Food Security Simulator Ethiopia (FSSE) is an innovative and easy-to-use, MS-Excel-based tool for assessing the potential short-term impacts of food price or household income shocks, along with changes in preferences, on food security and people’s diets. The Simulator is an ideal tool for first-cut forward-looking evaluations of direct, household-level outcomes of economic crises and policy responses in a timely manner. The tool allows users to enter positive and negative price or income changes in percentage terms and provides simulated changes for a diverse set of food-consumption- and diet-quality-related indicators. In addition to detailed tabular presentations of all simulation results by household income quintile and residential area, key indicator results are summarized in concise overview tables and visualized in graphs for easy export and use in reports. The underlying data include estimates from representative household survey data and rigorous, sophisticated food demand models to capture consumer behavior.

Rethinking responses to the world’s water crises

Food system financing vulnerability index

Food systems are integral to ensuring access to sustainable healthy diets for all, thereby supporting public health, livelihoods, and environmental sustainability. However, these systems are increasingly vulnerable to a range of shocks and stressors, from economic downturns and financial constraints to the impacts of cli mate change and pandemics. One of the most critical determinants of food system resilience is the ability to effectively manage financing vulnerabilities. Financing vulnerability refers to the susceptibility of food system components to performance degradation due to inadequate, inefficient, or uneven allocation of financial re sources. Addressing this issue is paramount for enhancing the system’s capacity to withstand and recover from disruptions while maintaining functionality.

Constraints to agricultural mechanization in Ethiopia: The case of solar irrigation pumps

Agriculture and food production in Ethiopia are dominated by smallholder farmers and characterized by a low input-low output system. Mechanization of agriculture—in particular, the widespread adoption of tractors for land preparation and motorized pumps for irrigation—is considered by many to be the key to breaking this low-productivity system. Agricultural mechanization can improve the livelihoods of smallholders by reducing drudgery and postharvest losses and by increasing the efficiency of farm operations. However, mechanization rates have increased only slowly in Sub-Saharan Africa.

Myanmar Agricultural Performance Survey (Dry Season 2024): Farm commercialization and farm services

 The security situation in Myanmar continues to negatively impact commercialization for crop farmers. During the monsoon season interview period (July–September 2024): a) Thirty-one percent of farmers reported feeling ‘very insecure’ or ‘insecure’. b) Twenty-three percent expressed serious security concerns to move around in their village tract or township. c) Seven percent stated that conflict prevented the cultivation of some agricultural fields in their area. d) One percent reported land confiscation as a problem in their community. e) Eleven percent indicated fear of storing produce at home due to the risk of confiscation or destruction.  Security challenges for farming vary across states and regions, with the Delta area – the country’s rice bowl – experiencing relatively better conditions.  Limited access to fuel, crucial for irrigation and mechanization among others, poses a significant constraint to farming. Nationally, about one-fifth and 40 percent of farmers reported either no or rare availability of fuel in their communities during the dry season and monsoon season of 2024 respectively. This situation during the monsoon is exacerbated in almost all of the states and regions, especially in the conflict-affected areas of Kayah, Shan, and Chin, with around 60 percent of the farmers reporting fuel scarcity.  Agricultural inputs were generally accessible during the 2024 dry season, indicating the resilience of the private sector in delivering these inputs. However, 5 percent of farmers reported unavailability of chemical fertilizers and seeds – a higher share than in the 2023 dry season – while 16 percent reported problems in securing agricultural labor.  Farmers in conflict-affected areas face more obstacles in farm commercialization, with agricultural inputs being much less available.  Input prices rose during the 2024 dry season compared to the same period in 2023. Mechanized plowing costs increased by 29 percent, while hired labor costs saw a rise of 33 percent for men and 32 percent for women. Urea prices experienced a modest increase of 3 percent. In the 2024 monsoon season, wages surged further compared to the preceding dry season, with men’s wages rising by 16 percent and women’s by 17 percent. These recent increases may be partly attributed to the introduction of the new Military Service Law.  Agricultural service delivery continues to decline, with fewer farmers able to access credit and agricultural extension services compared to previous years during the dry season of 2024.  All crop prices increased substantially compared to the previous dry season. While paddy prices increased by 14 percent, non-paddy crop prices increased significantly more.

Gender and age employment gaps within agrifood value chains in Bangladesh and Uganda

Using data collected with a novel sampling approach for agrifood value chains in Bangladesh (rice and potato) and Uganda (arabica coffee and soybean), this study documented meaningful gender and age employment gaps within intermediary sections of the value chains, which include trading , processing, and wholesaling activities. While agrifood value chains have potential to generate new jobs and close gaps for both women’s and youth employment in low- and middle-income countries, the study identifies large gender gaps in both operators of intermediary firms and those employed by these firms, as well as an age gap, with few youth operating intermediary firms. The brief offers recommendations for addressing systemic barriers that contribute to gender and age gaps in this “hidden middle” of agrifood value chains.

Rainy day funds? How men and women adapt to heavy rainfall shocks and the role of cash transfers in Mali

Weather shocks can affect men and women differently, due in part to differences in their adaptive capacities. We merge weather data with survey data from a randomized control trial of a cash transfer program in Mali to describe how men and women cope with weather shocks and the role of cash transfer programs in supporting adaptive responses. We find that heavy rainfall reduces household’s consumption but that the cash transfer program mitigates these impacts, primarily by allowing households to draw down both men’s and women’s savings, increasing the value of livestock and farming assets held jointly by men and women, and facilitating a reallocation of men’s and women’s labor to livestock production and women’s labor to domestic work.

Evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the ongoing conflict

Sudan’s food security landscape has been dramatically impacted by the ongoing conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF), which began in April 2023. The conflict has exacerbated an already precarious situation for the country, characterized by macroeconomic instability, climate shocks, and persistent discord and tension. This policy note analyzes the evolution of food insecurity in Sudan during the conflict, drawing from analysis of four nationwide surveys conducted before and during the conflict, namely the 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey (SLMPS),1 the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey,2 the 2024 Sudan Urban Survey,3 and the recently completed 2024 Rural Household Survey. The findings highlight significant deterioration in food security across rural and urban areas of Sudan. Based on insights from these surveys, policy recommendations are offered to address food insecurity in the context of the conflict in Sudan. Before the outbreak of the conflict in 2023, Sudan was already facing significant food insecurity challenges. The 2022 SLMPS, a nationwide survey conducted in person, revealed that approximately 49 percent of Sudanese households were food secure. Factors such as high inflation, climate-related shocks, and underinvestment in agriculture have led to many households facing problems accessing sufficient healthy food, adversely affecting their food consumption. The reliance of Sudan on imports for a significant share of food consumption, coupled with a devaluating Sudanese Pound and rising inflation, strained household purchasing power, further limiting access to essential foodstuffs. Food insecurity was uneven across the country. Rural areas, where consumption of own agricultural production is essential for household food security, had higher food insecurity than urban areas. Some regions were particularly vulnerable to food insecurity, including the Darfur and Kordofan regions and Blue Nile states. Localized conflicts in these areas disrupted agricultural activities and displaced communities even before broader-scale fighting between SAF and RSF began.

Elites’ response to women’s action committees and local services in Nigeria

This study examines how local elites respond in the face of two interventions: a women’s training designed to strengthen women’s sense of collective efficacy and leadership skills, and a complementary training program for women’s husbands, designed to encourage and support them to become champions of women’s voice and agency. The study utilized a three-arm randomized control trial (RCT) carried out in Ogun, Osun, and Oyo states of southwest Nigeria in 2023 to analyze elite responsiveness to hypothetical petitions presented by both women and men on key community development issues. Our first intervention (treatment group 1 (T1)), the women’s training intervention, provided intensive instruction in leadership, organizing, and advocacy. It was designed to reduce psychological barriers to women’s political participation by raising women’s sense of collective efficacy and conferring skills to help women overcome these barriers. This intervention was part of a coordinated set of field experiments in five countries—collectively known as Metaketa V. Our second intervention (T2), the men’s training intervention, emphasized the benefits of women’s political participation for families and communities and focused on equipping men to be advocates for women’s empowerment and gender equality in public spaces—underscoring that women’s empowerment is not a zero-sum game.

Rethinking the measurement of resilience for food and nutrition security

This paper presents a novel framework for assessing resilience in food systems, focusing on three dynamic metrics: return time, magnitude of deviation, and recovery rate. Traditional resilience measures have often relied on static and composite indicators, creating gaps in understanding the complex responses of food systems to shocks. This framework addresses these gaps, providing a more nuanced assessment of resilience in agrifood sectors. It highlights how integrating dynamic metrics enables policymakers to design tailored, sector-specific interventions that enhance resilience. Recognizing the data intensity required for these metrics, the paper indicates how emerging satellite imagery and advancements in artificial intelligence (AI) can make data collection both high-frequency and location-specific, at a fraction of the cost of traditional methods. These technologies facilitate a scalable approach to resilience measurement, enhancing the accuracy, timeliness, and accessibility of resilience data. The paper concludes with recommendations for refining resilience tools and adapting policy frameworks to better respond to the increasing challenges faced by food systems across the world.

Scaling up experiential learning for water management

Unsustainable water management is associated with reduced agricultural production and poverty, reduced ecosystem services and resilience, and insufficient and unreliable domestic water access. As a common pool resource with high subtractability and low excludability, water is easily depleted if no effective coordination exists among users to ensure provision and regulate withdrawals. This creates one of the greatest challenges for people living in semi-arid and arid environments. The majority of India’s population is estimated to face physical water scarcity for at least part of the year, with 600 million people living in areas of high to extreme water stress. As water management is highly complex, with many users sharing the same resource but often unknown to each other, stopping overuse is difficult, especially when it is more profitable to irrigate water-consumptive crops than water-conserving crops. Farmers, policymakers, donors, and nongovernmental organizations (NGOs) in India have all articulated the need for more effective tools to improve water management and governance. Coordination and effective management of water resources are crucial to sustain agricultural productivity, but so far progress has been disappointing. Technical tools such as crop water budgeting can play an important role in enabling communities to manage their water resources, but unless communities have the knowledge and motivation to use these tools, their application and impacts are limited. To date, attention to the question of how knowledge about collectively available water is translated into effective management through collective action, norms and rules has been insufficient. Blueprint rules introduced in a top-down manner have not changed water users’ behavior. However, there is strong evidence that effective community rules and their enforcement can motivate such behavior. The better these rules fit the social-ecological context and internalized norms, the more effective they will be. Participatory development approaches have addressed these challenges. The key question is how to promote such coordination, rules, and behavior in a participatory way without external imposition and in a low-cost manner that allows largescale implementation.

How can anticipatory action programming support women? Application of the reach-benefit-empower-transform framework in Nepal and Nigeria

As floods increase in frequency and intensity due to climate change, anticipatory action (AA) programs offer a promising approach to mitigate their impacts. However, there is limited research about how AA programming can address the specific needs of women, who often face heightened vulnerabilities during disasters. This paper applies the Reach, Benefit, Empower, Transform (RBET) framework to examine gender dynamics in AA programming through case studies in Nepal and Nigeria—two flood-prone countries where AA initiatives have been piloted. Using data from key informant interviews and focus group discussions with stakeholders, including government agencies, NGOs, local advocacy groups, and direct beneficiaries of flood programs, we assess barriers and enabling conditions for AA to reach, benefit, and empower women and broader opportunities for transformation of gender norms and social inequalities. Our findings reveal key implementation challenges, including limited funding, weak integration with broader disaster risk reduction efforts, and inadequate early warning systems. However, we also identify practical strategies for improving AA’s gender responsiveness, such as relying on individual rather than household-level data, providing accessible early warning information, offering aid modalities that meet women’s specific needs (such as dignity kits), ensuring women’s participation in community decision-making, and facilitating ongoing inclusive household and community dialogues in flood-prone communities rather than only responding to specific flood warnings. The paper concludes with recommendations for scaling up gender-inclusive AA programming to enhance resilience and reduce the disproportionate impacts of flooding on women.

Nutrient-dense foods and diverse diets are important for ensuring adequate nutrition across the life course

The world faces a global challenge of how to meet the nutritional needs of a diverse global population through diets. This paper defines the relative nutritional needs across each stage of the life cycle to support human health and identifies who is nutritionally vulnerable. Findings in this paper suggest that there are biological nutritional vulnerabilities stemming from high micronutrient needs per calorie in certain phases of the life cycle, particularly for infants and young children, women of reproductive age, pregnant and lactating women, and older adults, particularly older women. The paper demonstrates the role of micronutrient-dense animal-source foods and plant-source foods important in meeting essential nutrient needs to support healthy growth, development, and aging across vulnerable stages of the life cycle.

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Would you rather: Voluntary take-up of a poverty graduation program among cash transfer recipients

THIS IS AN INITIAL PUBLICATION. THE FINAL VERSION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN DECEMBER 2024. We study how households in Egypt’s national cash transfer program decide to voluntarily join a new government-run poverty graduation program. Using a randomized experiment, we test official video messages providing respondents with new information on: T1) the duration of the cash transfers after joining the graduation program and T2) expected monthly income from the asset provided by the graduation program. Both video messages increase respondents’ beliefs on their respective topics and interest in recommending the graduation program to others. The evidence is consistent with a theoretical model where new information increasing the expected returns for the graduation program consequently increases preferences for the new program, though estimating the model reveals other factors also likely affect household decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of designing poverty graduation programs that provide compelling economic incentives relative to existing social protection programs.

Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan

By applying Resilience Index Measurement Analysis to data from Tajikistan, this paper measures food insecurity resilience capacity. Another objective of this paper is to construct and integrate coping strategies into resilience discussions. The final objective is to analyze the role of resilience capacity and coping strategy in food security with an Instrumental Variable approach. Our results generally confirm that resilience and coping strategies increase food security, determined by food expenditure, household adequacy of fruit and vegetable consumption, and household food expenditure share. Moreover, resilience capacity has a moderating role in mitigating negative impacts of shocks on food security.

Leveraging unsupervised machine learning to examine women’s vulnerability to climate change

We provide an application of machine learning to identify the distributional consequences of climate change in Malawi. We compare climate impact estimates based on drought indicators established objectively from the k-means algorithm to more traditional measures. Young women affected by drought were 5 percentage points more likely to be married by 18 than those living in nondrought areas. Our approach generates robust results when varying the number of clusters and definition of treatment status. In some cases, we find the design using k-means to define treatment is more likely to satisfy the assumptions underlying the difference-in-differences strategy than when using arbitrary thresholds. Projections from the estimates indicate future drought risk may lead to larger declines in labor productivity due to women’s engagement in early age marriage than other factors affecting their participation rates. Under the extreme representative concentration pathway scenario, drought exposure encourages the exit of 3.3 million women workers by 2100.

Impact of adoption of climate smart agriculture practices on farmer’s income in semi-arid regions of Karnataka

Context Semi-arid regions are one of the most vulnerable regions of climate change to agriculture. Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India has warmed by 0.4 °C with declining trends in average annual rainfall by 10 % over the last century, is highly vulnerable to climate change. To adapt with this climate change impact, Government of Karnataka along with CGIAR institutes and agriculture universities had initiated the Bhoo-Samrudhi program in 2013 to promote climate smart agriculture practices in the state. The primary aim of this program was to enhance crop productivity by 25 % and farmers income by 20 %. Objective Firstly, this study aims to identify who adopts CSA practices and at what scale? Secondly, how much additional income farmers earn by adopting CSA practices as compared the non-CSA but improved agricultural practices, and the traditional practices. Thirdly, this study estimates marginal increase in farmers income at difference scale of adoption of CSA practices. Finally, this study identifies possible challenges and opportunities in upscaling the adoption of CSA practices in the state. Methods A primary survey using a semi-structured questionnaire was conducted among the selected 1466 farmer households in four districts of Karnataka (Bidar, Chikballapur, Dharwad, and Udupi). The sample consisted of 833 adopter farmers and 633 non-adopter farmers. Non-adopter farmers were those who were following traditional practice of crop cultivation and rest of the farmers are treated as adopters. The study used multinomial logistic regression to explore what made adopter farmers different from non-adopter farmers. Further, we had applied propensity score matching and inverse probability weighted regression adjustment methods to estimate the impact of scale of adoption of CSA practices on farmers income. Results and conclusions The results highlighted that landholding size, education levels, and asset ownership likely affect the adoption of various levels of CSA practice intensification. Moreover, the impact of adoption on farmers’ income is estimated to be Rs. 4845 for low intensified, Rs. 6801 for medium intensified, and Rs. 7858 for highly intensified farmers, in comparison to the improved technology adopters. Therefore, we can conclude that adoption of single technology may not be able to solve the problem, instead technology intensification can be a more effective mechanism to deal with the vulnerabilities and create resilience against climate change. Significance Technology adoption has been a proven method to improve agricultural productivity as well as income of the farmers in semi-arid regions across the globe. However, an upcoming method to improve food and livelihood security is through sustainable technological intensification. Thus, this study contributes to providing empirical and evidence-based policy suggestions to promote technology intensification instead of just promoting one single technology. Therefore, technology intensification can be considered as a package of multiple technologies for the farmers to improve their crop and land productivity, and to gain higher economic return.

Indicators for monitoring and evaluating research-for-development: A critical review of a system in use

Research-for-development (R4D) refers to research activities specifically designed to address critical social, environmental, and economic challenges and improve human well-being. It is essential to have well-designed indicators to monitor and evaluate progress, guide decision-making, and support learning and improvement. This paper reviews and compares two sets of indicators in use by a large international research consortium: i) ad hoc indicators developed by and for individual (non-pooled) projects, and ii) a standard set of indicators designed as part of a common results framework for a new portfolio of research initiatives. We assess both sets of indicators against the SMART (specific, measurable, achievable, relevant and time-bound) criteria, identify common errors in indicator formulation, compare the thematic coverage of the two sets of indicators, and derive lessons for improved indicator formulation. A large proportion of the non-pooled indicators fail to meet the SMART criteria. The indicators in the standard set are stronger, but with scope for improvement, especially in terms of relationship to the result of interest, specification of the indicator, measurability, standardization of outcome indicators, and impact indicators. We recommend having a balanced set of indicators of key outputs, outcomes, and impacts, based on clear and well-defined result statements.

The technopolitics of agronomic knowledge and tropical(izing) vegetables in Brazil

This article critically analyzes the social and political factors behind the advancement of technoscientific development in modern Brazilian agriculture. In the second half of the 20th century, Brazil underwent a rapid industrialization in the agricultural sector by more than doubling productivity in key global commodities and a widespread migration of people from rural to urban areas. Most observers point to the Brazilian Agricultural Research Corporation (Embrapa) as the technological engine that drove the industrialization of Brazilian agriculture. Existing approaches to analyze technoscientific development tend to overlook the role of the environment and individual scientists in enacting change. I argue that, especially in the case of agriculture, technoscientific development hinges on the extent to which the environment is disregarded or embraced by those who have the institutional support and capacity to innovate. To support my argument, I draw on two contrasting cases of crop development spearheaded by Embrapa scientists: the tropicalization of the carrot and participatory research on non-conventional vegetables. Through those two cases, the article demonstrates how the general and specific, the transnational and local, and the industrial and agroecological are all key contrasting factors for understanding technoscientific development in agriculture. This research is based on extensive interviews and participant observation at Embrapa’s vegetable research center near Brasilia, Brazil.

Compliance with food safety measures and their economic impact on smallholder dairy farmers: Evidence from the Indo-Gangetic plains of India

This study examines the adoption and economic impact of compliance with food safety measures (FSM) using cross-sectional farm-level data from three key states in the Indo-Gangetic Plains, Bihar, Punjab, and Uttar Pradesh, in 2023. The majority of the farmers were operating on marginal and small plots. A Food Safety Index (FSI) derived from 71 distinct practices was used as a quantitative measure of adoption of compliance with FSM. The study assigns 0.60, 0.23, and 0.17 wt to microbiological, physical, and chemical safety measures, respectively, to derive FSI. Determinants of compliance with FSM were analysed using multiple linear regression and ordered logistic model, while Generalized propensity score (GPS) was used to assess the economic impact of compliance with FSM on farm-level performance indicators. The findings indicate that farmers are adopting a moderate level (0.48–0.58) of the FSI. Various socio-economic and demographic factors, such as education, income, marketing channel, training exposure, awareness level, and infrastructure, significantly influence the adoption of FSM. The impact assessment reveals that compliance with FSM correlates with milk prices, productivity, and profitability. However, a lower level of compliance may not yield significant improvements in milk productivity. The study suggests incentivization through pricing reforms, improving infrastructure, strengthening formal marketing channels, and raising awareness through training.

Suboptimal nutritional status of school-age children in Addis Ababa: evidence from the analysis of socioeconomic, environmental, and behavioral factors

Background: School-aged children (6–14 years old) are susceptible to malnutrition and micronutrient deficiencies. Environmental and behavioral factors greatly influence their nutritional status. This study aimed to examine the association between dietary factors and the nutritional status of school-aged children attending public and private schools in Addis Ababa. Methods: A community-based cross-sectional study design was employed from March to August 2023. A total of 309 study participants were randomly selected from 10 schools. Data were entered into Epidata version 3.1 and exported to SPSS version 23.0 for analysis. WHO Anthro Plus 1.0.4 was used to assess the measurements of weight-for-age (WAZ), height-for-age (HAZ), and BMI-for-age (BAZ) for overweight, stunting, and underweight, while wasting was assessed using MUAC. A Poisson regression model was used to determine the association between predictor variables and stunting, wasting, underweight, and overweight, with adjusted prevalence ratios (APR). APR and 95% CI were used to identify statistically significant variables. Results: Findings revealed the prevalence of wasting (15%), stunting (24%), underweight (36%), and overweight (19%) among school-aged children. Factors influencing stunting include marital status, house ownership, education level of parents/caregivers, child sex, and meal skipping. Wasting was linked to wealth index, child age, dietary diversity, dietary habits, water access, and toilet facilities. Underweight predictors include parent/caregiver age, marital status, and meal frequency. Moreover, school type appeared as a significant factor for overweight. Conclusions: The overall nutritional status of school-aged children is suboptimal, influenced by sociodemographic, environmental, and behavioral factors. Addressing these factors through targeted interventions is crucial, particularly for the most vulnerable groups.

Sustainable poverty reduction through social assistance: Modality, context, and complementary programming in Bangladesh

Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end, or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns, to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts.

Can social assistance reduce violent conflict and civil unrest? Evidence from a large-scale public works programme in Ethiopia

We assess how one of the largest public works programmes in the world—Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP)—affected violent conflict and civil unrest. Using difference-in-differences methods and linking administrative and geocoded conflict event data, we find that the PSNP did not change the risk of violent events, but reduced the likelihood of civil unrest by almost half when compared to non-PSNP districts. These effects are most pronounced during the period 2014–18, coinciding with widespread protests in Amhara and Oromia, the two most populous regions of Ethiopia. Examining mechanisms, we find evidence that the PSNP fostered greater sympathy and satisfaction with the ruling party, making PSNP households less likely to engage in demonstrations. JEL classification: D74, I38, H53, Q34

Securing food, building livelihoods? A 15-year appraisal of Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme

-We assess the impact of a large-scale social protection intervention, Ethiopia’s Productive Safety Net Programme (PSNP), over a 15-year period. -We find that the PSNP had a positive impact on food security but inconsistent impacts on assets. There were positive impacts on fertilizer use, investments in terracing, and cereal yields but only when the program was twinned with complementary programming. -The PSNP enabled households to be more resilient to covariate shocks. There were no adverse incentive effects on labour supply or fertility. There is some evidence that it improved schooling outcomes and reduced child labour but not child nutrition outcomes. -Payment levels, uncertainty about when payments would take place, and processes associated with making payments all played a role in generating these mixed impacts. -These also illustrate that while complementary programming can enhance the impact of transfers, adding complementary programming at scale is challenging when resources are limited.

The role of social assistance in African crises: A systematic literature review

This systematic review examines the effectiveness of social assistance programmes in protecting households in Africa—a region highly vulnerable to climate change, conflict, and other shocks—during periods of crisis. Despite the significant increase in the number of these programmes over the past two decades, the need for emergency aid remains. Our review focuses on quantitative studies using microdata to assess the impact of these programmes on household income, poverty, assets, and food security outcomes during crises. We find that large, predictable, and consistent transfers are effective in protecting households and building resilience, as they enable households to accumulate buffer stocks and better plan for future shocks. However, challenges with timely implementation often hinder their effectiveness. Cash-plus programmes, which integrate consumption support with livelihood interventions, show particular promise in fostering long-term resilience, though the evidence base remains too limited to draw broader conclusions. JEL classification: O15, H53

Overlapping school and farming calendars in Madagascar: Simulating gains of alternative school calendars

This report summarizes ongoing analysis of overlap between school and farming calendars in Madagascar in collaboration with the World Bank office in Madagascar. Following IFPRI Discussion Paper 2235 (Allen 2024), I develop a community-based measure of overlap as the number of days that the school calendar overlaps with crop calendars that weights the relevance of each crop by the community crop share and then aggregates across crops. A policy simulation of alternative school calendars identifies early January as the best time to start Madagascar’s national school calendar (assuming the same structure as the actual school calendar) to avoid overlap with peak farming periods. Further, it finds additional gains can be made to reducing overlap by decentralizing school calendars to the local level and adopting each community’s overlap-minimizing calendar. Next steps in 2025 include an empirical analysis that estimates the correlation between overlap and key education outcomes that simulates the potential gains of a locally decentralized overlap-minimizing school calendar.

Sustainability considerations are not influencing meat consumption in the US

The consumption of animal-source foods, and particularly red meat from ruminants, is a major contributor to greenhouse gas emissions, freshwater use, and loss of biodiversity. Reducing red meat consumption has been identified as a key strategy to mitigate climate change; however, little is known about how to effectively intervene to promote its reduction in the United States (US). This study aimed to examine meat (red, unprocessed, and poultry) and seafood consumption patterns, the factors influencing their consumption (including a reduction in their consumption over time), and how these differed based on socioeconomic variables. The study was conducted through an online survey with a representative sample of the US population (n = 1224) in 2021 using KnowledgePanel®. Overall, we found that most participants reported consuming red meat (78%), processed meat (74%), or poultry (79%) 1–4 times per week, with several differences in consumption patterns based on socio-demographic characteristics. A substantial proportion of the population reported reducing their red (70%) and processed meat (64%) consumption over the previous year, which was much higher than those that reported reducing poultry (34%) or seafood (26%). Key factors influencing red meat reduction were health and price, while environmental sustainability and animal welfare were less important, particularly among certain socio-demographic groups. These findings can help provide insight into how best to frame messaging campaigns aimed at shifting red meat consumption in the US to support climate change mitigation. Focusing on the factors that resonate more with consumers is more likely to lead to shifts in consumption patterns.

Analyzing hypertension and diabetes mellitus status among Bangladeshi adults: Evidence from Bangladesh Demographic Health Survey (BDHS) 2017–18 data

Self-selection versus population-based sampling for evaluation of an agronomy training program in Uganda

One of the challenges in evaluating the impact of agronomy training programs, particularly on downstream impacts such as yield, is identifying a sample of farmers who are likely to participate in the training. We assess farmers’ participation in a farm business training activity before the agronomy training intervention as a sample identification mechanism. The screening activity was designed to appeal to the same group of farmers targeted by a coffee agronomy training program, while having minimal impact on the program’s goal of increasing coffee yields. A three-session training on farm business management was conducted in 22 study villages in central Uganda. Coffee agronomy training was then offered in half of these villages, based on random assignment. The results show that 52% of coffee farmers who attended the first business training session subsequently attended agronomy training, compared to 22% of those identified through a census. Applying these results to the design of a large ongoing randomised controlled trial, we find that using a self-selected sample reduces the minimum detectable effect of agronomy training on coffee yield to 15.83%, compared to 38% if population-based sampling were used.

Monitoring biofortification program performance and potential for impact: Indicators, methods, and learnings from the commercialization of biofortified crops program in six countries across Africa and Asia

Background Biofortification of staple crops is a food-based strategy to reduce the high global burden of micronutrient deficiencies. Monitoring program performance is essential to ensure biofortification programs have high potential for impact; however, few indicators and methods for doing so are publicly available. Objective We documented the set of standardized indicators and methods used to monitor the Commercialization of Biofortified Crops (CBC) program and reviewed their strengths and limitations. Methods Following the CBC program impact pathway, we identified and defined a set of indicators and corresponding methods. Country-level implementation teams contextualized and operationalized them to monitor 9 country-crop programs (i.e., high iron beans in Kenya and Tanzania, iron pearl millet in India, vitamin A maize in Nigeria and Tanzania, vitamin A cassava in Nigeria, zinc wheat in Pakistan and India, and zinc rice in Bangladesh) from 2020 to 2022. Results Twenty indicators were defined across domains of seed supply, production, availability, awareness, capacity development, advocacy, and consumption of biofortified foods. Data collection methods included external and internal document review, farmer household surveys, rapid market assessments, and modeling. The strengths of these methods were that they were rapid to conduct, low cost, and simple to use. For some methods, the limitations were the potentially reduced accuracy of some results due to the use of external data sources or secondary data inputs and unavailability of data. Conclusions The indicators and methods used in the CBC program are practical and cost effective for monitoring the implementation of biofortification programs because they generate the range of information necessary to understand how effectively a program is delivered and bolster plausibility arguments for attributing observed impacts to program activities. Further testing is needed to confirm their generalizability when applied to different contexts and paired with impact evaluations with the aim of producing publicly available global guidance documents.

Building resilience through integrated assistance: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of the Congo

Despite growing investment in resilience-building programs in conflict zones, limited empirical evidence exists on the effectiveness of integrated interventions in such contexts. This study examines the impact of a comprehensive resilience-building program in North Kivu, Democratic Republic of the Congo (2017-2019), focusing on community infrastructure, farmer associations, and land access. Using propensity score matching and difference-in-differences analysis of primary panel data from 1,643 households, our research reveals that integrated interventions significantly improved households’ resilience capacity, primarily through enhanced market access and strengthened collective marketing systems. The program yielded a statistically significant positive impact on beneficiaries’ access to land and participation in community associations, though impacts on agricultural production and food security were limited. These findings highlight the importance of context-specific, multifaceted approaches in enhancing resilience in areas facing protracted crises, particularly emphasizing market access and social cohesion. Our results provide valuable empirical evidence for policymakers and development practitioners, suggesting that resilience-building in conflict zones requires sustained, locally-adapted interventions that prioritize market linkages and community networks alongside traditional agricultural support. JEL Classification Codes: C01, C23, D04

Harness agrifood value chains to help farmers be climate smart: Incentives and structures exist to improve farming practices

Supply- and demand-side factors affecting maize and cowpea varietal turnover and quality seed use: Mixed-method evidence from northern Nigeria

This study provides an integrated assessment of the seed system for maize and cowpea, two of the most important crops in Nigeria. We analyze the various factors influencing seed supply and demand and present different measures of capacity and incentive of multiple actors along the seed value chain. We also present metrics on adoption of improved varieties and quality seed use, given the complexity of these concepts and persistent challenges in measuring them in a survey context. At the national level, the 2015 to 2018 Living Standards Measurement Survey data show that the adoption rate of improved varieties was 16 percent of maize area and 6 percent of cowpea area, with 9 percent of maize farmers and 3 percent of cowpea farmers reporting certified seed use of improved varieties. Data from household surveys conducted in 2022 show that in Bauchi and Kaduna—states with relatively high maize and cowpea production levels—the adoption rate of quality seeds of improved varieties was 10 percent of cowpea land area and 25 percent of maize land area. In addition, the improved varieties in the cowpea and maize plots were old; the area-weighted varietal age in cowpea farms was 12 years and in maize farms, 13 years. The most popular cowpea variety was Kananado (likely matching released variety SAMPEA 9 or SAMPEA 11, released in 2005 and 2009, respectively), and the most popular maize variety was SAMMAZ 15, released in 2008. Newer varieties have not caught up in popularity. Different stages of the seed value chain face major bottlenecks. Two major themes emerged as barriers and drivers of adoption of newer improved varieties and quality seed: (1) Seed supplies were limited, especially breeder and foundation seeds, implying that Nigeria’s seed system needs to increase coordination, funding, and capacity for early-generation seed production and management; and (2) new varieties were not promoted to farmers, who therefore lacked exposure to the seeds, implying that both public and private sectors need to invest more in the promotion of these varieties and increase exposure and testing among farmers. There is also a need to look at the breeding and offerings of newer improved varieties. Some newer varieties do not consistently and comprehensively outperform older bred varieties in field trials and farm demonstrations; some older bred varieties remain attractive and popular to farmers. Beyond seeds, several contextual factors disabled farmers’ and seed actors’ capacity and incentive to expand production and adopt improved varieties. Security issues; poor soil conditions; and high fertilizer, transportation, irrigation, and diesel costs were some of the major disablers in the seed system that must be addressed.

A mixed-method study on gender and intrahousehold differences in food consumption from Khatlon Province, Tajikistan

Tajikistan faces food insecurity and multiple forms of malnutrition in its population, with women particularly at risk. Social norms related to gender and intrahousehold hierarchy are pervasive and are commonly upheld in household roles. Yet, how gender may impact dietary intake in Tajikistan remains to be studied. Understanding this mechanism is critical to develop adequate strategies for effective, equitable progress in mitigating malnutrition and food insecurity. mixed-methods study was conducted to assess the extent and identify the drivers of gender-based and intrahousehold differences in dietary intake in Khatlon Province, Tajikistan. Predictors of food intake and dietary diversity were statistically assessed using quantitative survey data from 1,704 individuals collected in winter- and springtime 2023. Qualitative data from 12 focus group discussions, 20 individual interviews, and 22 Photovoice interviews collected in winter- and springtime 2024 was analyzed using reflexive thematic analysis to further ascertain and understand these drivers. We find gender differences in dietary diversity, with women reporting lower dietary diversity than men, even when comparing men and women living in the same household. Among women, there are significant differences in dietary diversity based on their role in the household. Gendered social norms and intrahousehold power relations influence food acquisition, preparation, distribution, and consumption. Men, particularly household heads, and children tend to be prioritized over women in consuming food products that are deemed more nutritious (e.g., meat). Women adapt their food intake to meet the expectations and needs of other household members. This study highlights the importance of considering household dynamics and gender roles when creating programs and policies aiming to equitably address food and nutrition insecurity and malnutrition. The findings suggest that mitigating malnutrition in Tajikistan will necessitate gender equity-focused social behavior change interventions targeting women and men across different generations.

Managing agricultural enterprises and developing agricultural value chains: Cases on agribusinesses

This book of cases, mostly of small to medium organizations, from west Africa, Thailand and India offers cases suitable for training of practicing managers of small and medium agricultural enterprises and public sector professionals engaged in agricultural development. The book comprises an introductory essay, 22 cases, two industry notes, and a chapter guiding how the cases may be used to develop a one- or two-week training program. The cases are situations in enterprises or sectors that require a decision to be made, written from the perspective of a protagonist, usually a high-level decision maker. The cases included in the book are predominantly from West Africa—Ghana, Cote d’Ivoire, and Nigeria—and the rest are from India. In addition, two industry notes, one on tomato processing in Turkey and the other on the maize seed industry in Thailand are included. They offer contrasting situations to those addressed in some of the west African cases. Case-based teaching is particularly suitable for training of practicing managers with limited formal training. The cases in the book are adequate to comprehensively address key issues in agricultural enterprise management and value chain development. Part of the book series: Management for Professionals (MANAGPROF)

Catalyzing financial inclusion: Using incentives to promote mobile money use in Ethiopia

Mobile money can be a vehicle for improving financial access, particularly among disadvantaged populations. For mobile money systems to play this role, though, members of disadvantaged groups must both enroll in and begin to use mobile money systems. In this paper, we describe a randomized trial conducted in collaboration with a bank in Somali region, Ethiopia, that attempted to stimulate use among recent mobile money enrollees in areas near refugee camps. We provide one group with a small transfer to their mobile money account and another group is told they will receive a small transfer if they first make three transactions of any type within a promotional period. The unconditional transfer induces a 9.3 percentage point increase in customers making at least one transaction, while the conditional transfer has no significant effect. The effect is larger among men, but there is evidence that it also induces use among women.

Enhancing experiential learning through community debriefs: A reflection from facilitators of experiential games

Community debriefing is a structured process that facilitates the sharing of experience and insights about implemented interventions among community members. It enables participants to connect lessons learned in an activity, experience, or program to the outside world and to discuss the relevance of an activity to the challenges faced by the community. Thus, social learning is reinforced when debriefing sessions are conducted at the community level. Here, we are interested in debriefings conducted after playing experiential learning games as a learning space beyond the game itself.

Between tradition and modernity: Exploring the differences in factors driving happiness in indigenous and the general population in Bangladesh

The changing demographics in food systems and implications for future youth engagement in Rwanda

Food systems are critically important for food security and employment in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Moreover, expansion of nonfarm components of food systems (FS) reinforces efforts to transition out of agriculture. FS, particularly off-farm segments of food value chains, must grow rapidly to guarantee food and nutrition security for growing populations and to provide the quantity and variety of food demanded as a result of increases in urbanization and income, as well as to accommodate accompanying technological and other changes. The impact, inevitability, and amenability to policy interventions of these factors and the extent of FS transformation needed differs across countries. Future FS also face several emerging challenges. Employment and job creation are among the areas that are significantly affected by FS transformation. Demographic changes that accompany expanding FS employment are also critical for gender equity and youth inclusion. The extent, speed, and complementarity of the FS transformation and increased employment varies across countries. However, there is currently no system in place to monitor the extent of FS transformation or its interactions with other aspects of the economy, such as employment. This study of Rwanda uses secondary data from the International Labour Organization (ILO) (2023), World Bank (2023), and Integrated Household Living Conditions Survey (EICV) (2023) to investigate demographic trends in overall FS employment and who is and is not engaging in FS; and to document sectoral and overall economic growth, population and demographic changes, and urbanization trends—all which influence and are influenced by FS growth. The study contributes to the literature by testing the predicted patterns of employment growth and inclusiveness in agrifood systems, and by pointing to the nodes of employment in FS where gender- and age-based inequities exist, thereby facilitating policymaking and interventions to ameliorate the problems. In addition, tracking performance in employment-related Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) in Rwanda contributes to our understanding of the progress made in SSA toward inclusiveness, efficiency, and poverty reduction, particularly progress that benefits women and the youth. Rwanda’s economy grew remarkably during the two decades covered in the study (2001–2022). Agriculture contributed significantly to gross domestic product (GDP) as well as to overall and FS employment. Per capita income more than doubled, although it still is about half the average GDP per capita of SSA. The population, threequarters of whom are under 35 years of age, increased by 70% during the period. There have been great strides in education, particularly for girls and women. However, urbanization has been slow, and half of the country’s urban residents live in the capital city. The unemployment rate in Rwanda has been twice the SSA average and has generally been increasing. More than half of the workers are employed in agriculture, although this share declined considerably during the period. Farming contributes significantly to FS employment. However, the share of overall FS employment declined during the period, due to a decline in farming employment accompanied by stagnant employment in non-farm FS. Relative to men, women’s overall labor force participation rate is considerably lower and their unemployment rate higher. A larger share of women work in low-skill jobs and this gap increased during the period; a relatively larger share of women are employed in FS, but a smaller share work in the nonfarm component of FS and this gender gap widened. Similarly, relative to mature adults, youth are less advantaged. The labor force participation rate of youth is considerably lower, and the rate of unemployment is higher and increasing relatively faster among youth. However, differences in FS employment among youth and mature adults were considerably lower and shown no clear trend. Findings of this study point to several short- and long-run policy implications.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural input retailers – August 2024 survey round

Agricultural input retailers are crucial to Myanmar’s agri-food system, providing farmers with essential fertilizers, seeds, pesticides, and other inputs needed for production. Since input use at the farm level significantly impacts yields across major food crops, economic disruptions to the input retail sector can have profound effects on rural household welfare and food security. Given this importance, regular monitoring surveys of input retailers are essential to track sector health, anticipate potential disruptions, and ensure timely support for sustaining agricultural productivity.

Soft-skills training, locus of control, and labor market outcomes of youth: Evidence from a randomized intervention in Kenya

Africa has the youngest population in the world, but African economies are not creating enough high-productivity jobs, and rates of youth unemployment thus remain a major challenge in the region. Several supply- and demand-side factors may explain these trends, including skill gaps. While traditional technical and vocational education and training (TVET) centers address important gaps in hard (technical) skills, soft-skills trainings have not yet received sufficient attention in the African context. We evaluate the overall and heterogenous impact of a gender-sensitive soft-skills training that aimed to address youths’ unique interests, preferences, and labor market constraints in Kenya. We also examine whether the presence (or absence) of complementary noncognitive skills, such as locus-of-control skills, moderates the impact of the soft-skills training. We use a randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a soft-skills training to support young men and women in making the transition from school to work in Kenya. Our evaluation combines baseline, midline, and endline data to understand the dynamics of labor market transitions for youth. We find that although the soft-skills training prepared youth for the labor market by improving their willingness, expectations, and preparedness for jobs, the impact of the soft-skills training on ultimate labor market outcomes varies across individuals with varying psychological traits. The training improved labor market outcomes for those with internal locus of control but not for individuals who lack these attributes. One standard deviation increase in (internal) locus of control is associated with a 5 percentage-point increase in the impact of the soft-skills training on probability of participation in income-earning activities. We also find that returns to locus of control and the soft-skills training are higher for females than males.

The state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar 2021-24: Findings from seven rounds of the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey

This working paper explores the state of food security and nutrition in Myanmar using seven rounds of nationally representative household panel data collected from December 2021 to July 2024. Overall, the state of food security and nutrition has deteriorated in Myanmar in 2021-24. More than three percent of households were in moderate to severe hunger in April-July 2024. Hunger was highest in Chin (14.4 percent), as well as Rakhine (8.0 percent) and Kayah (5.2 percent) in the latest survey round. Households with a low food consumption score increased from 9.4 percent in December 2021-February 2022 to 17.7 percent in April-June 2023 and remains high at 13.5 percent in April-July 2024. The shares in April-July 2024 were highest in Kayah (52.3 percent), Chin (33.9 percent), and Shan (21.1 percent). Inadequate diet diversity among adults rose from 20.6 percent to 25 percent over December 2021-February 2022 to April-July 2024. Women saw a faster decline in diet quality from December-February 2022 to April-July 2024 (6.3 percentage points increase in poor diet quality vs 2.4 percentage points for men). Decreases in diet quality among adults are driven by lower consumption of nuts and seeds and milk/dairy products. 29.5 percent of all children aged 6-23 months and 20.9 percent of all children aged 6-59 months had inadequate diet quality in the latest round of survey. Regression analysis reveals low income and limited assets to be important risk factors for food security and adequate diet quality. Wage workers and low wage communities are found to be particularly vulnerable. Rising food prices, conflict and physical insecurity increase the likelihood of poor diet quality. Receiving remittances is a source of resilience; remittance-receiving households are less likely to experience hunger or poor dietary diversity at the household, adult, and child level. To avert a full-blown nutrition crisis in Myanmar, effective multisectoral steps are required to protect nutritionally vulnerable populations. Expanded implementation of nutrition- and gender-sensitive social protection programs, including maternal and child cash transfers, particularly to vulnerable groups is called for. Further, given the importance of remittances as an effective coping mechanism, supporting migration and the flow of remittances would help to improve the welfare of the Myanmar population.

Financial inclusion, agricultural inputs use, and household food security evidence from Nigeria

This paper examines the effects of financial inclusion on adoption and intensity of use of agricultural inputs and household welfare indicators using data from the nationally representative Nigerian LSMS wave-3 (2015/2016) survey. For this, we constructed a financial inclusion index from four formal financial services access indicators (bank account, access to credit, insurance coverage, and digital transaction) using multiple correspondence analysis (MCA). We used Cragg’s two-step hurdle, instrumental variables for binary response variables, and a Generalized Method of Moments (GMM) models in the econometric analysis. Results show that households with access to formal financial services are more likely to adopt agricultural inputs and to apply these more intensively. These same households are less likely to experience severe food insecurity and are more likely to consume diverse food items. We also find that these effects are less for female farmers regardless of formal financial inclusion, suggesting that they may bear more non-financial constraints than their male counterparts. The results suggest a need for targeted interventions to increase access to formal financial services of farm households and gender-responsive interventions to address the differential constraints women farmers face.

Groundwater games in Barahathawa: Lessons and implications

Groundwater is a crucial source of water for domestic use and increasingly used for irrigation in the southern Terai region of Nepal. However, increasing groundwater extraction and other changes are depleting groundwater levels. Well drillers interviewed in Barahathawa said that water used to be available at 35 feet below the surface but now in some places they have to go to 60 feet or more for reliable water. This is an example of problems and the need for better institutions to govern a shared, invisible, and often poorly understood resource. Groundwater crop-choice games are part of a toolbox of activities that can help people learn and work together to improve groundwater governance. This brief presents lessons and implications from an initial exercise with groundwater games in Barahathawa Municipality in Madhesh Province in Nepal.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: The rising costs of diets – September 2024 survey round

We assess changes in food prices and diet costs based on large-scale surveys of food vendors (fielded from June 2020 until September 2024) and households (fielded in six periods between 2022 to 2024) across rural and urban areas and in all states/regions of Myanmar. Key Findings  Between July 2023 and September 2024, the cost of a healthy and commonly consumed diet increased by 34 and 35 percent, respectively.  The price of rice – the major staple – was more than twice as high in September 2024 compared to two years prior. Prices rose by 29 percent between July 2023 and September 2024, and by only 7 percent between March and September 2024.  In September 2024, cooking oil prices were 88 percent higher than the previous year, but 15 percent lower than two years prior.  In September 2024, the median prices of most protein-rich foods, except for fish, were at least 50 percent higher compared to two years prior. Over the same two-year period, banana prices doubled.  The highest costs for both common and healthy diets are seen in the conflict-affected states of Rakhine and Kachin, where in September 2024, the costs of the healthy diet was about 65 percent higher than the national average and the costs of the common diet costs was about 40 percent higher.  Compared to average casual wages, the healthy and common diets are least affordable in Kachin, Rakhine and Magway and most affordable in Kayin and Mon.  Between the fourth quarter of 2023 and September 2024, the prices of petrol rose by 90 percent, bar soap and paracetamol by nearly 50 percent, and toothpaste by 160 percent. Recommended Actions  Ensuring food is available at affordable prices is crucial to prevent food security and nutrition issues in the country. Therefore, prioritizing a well-functioning agri-food system should be a key focus for all stakeholders.  The food price situation in Rakhine State is most concerning among all states and regions, and the state should be prioritized – to the extent that this possible – for assistance.

Rice productivity in Myanmar: Assessment of the 2024 dry season

Key Findings We analyze paddy rice productivity and profitability data for the dry seasons of 2023 and 2024, based on the Myanmar Agriculture Performance Survey (MAPS) fielded in the period of July 29th to September 16th, 2024. The survey covered plots of 825 rice paddy producers. It is found that: • Prices of inputs used in paddy production – labor and mechanization – increased significantly between these two growing seasons by between 36-38 and 59 percent respectively, on average. On the other hand, urea prices declined by 1 percent. Paddy prices at the farm increased by 14 percent. • Nominal profits for paddy rice farmers increased over the last two seasons. At the same time, price inflation has been high in the country. Therefore, real profits from paddy rice farming, which are nominal prices corrected by the change in the cost of an average food basket, decreased by 15 percent during the dry season of 2024 compared to the dry season of 2023. However, real profits were still higher than two and three years ago. • Rice productivity at the national level during the dry season of 2024 on farmers’ largest rice plot was slightly higher (+6.9 percent) than in the previous dry season. • Six percent of the rice farmers reported to have been affected by flooding during the dry season, even before cyclone Yagi affected many farmers in the beginning of September 2024. Recommended Actions • As paddy prices have gone up compared to last year, rice prices have gone up substantially as well, making the costs of Myanmar’s staple food unaffordable for some consumers, especially for the most vulnerable ones. Expansion of safety nets, targeted or self-targeted to the poorest, would therefore be beneficial. • The cyclone Yagi has affected a significant share of monsoon producers. Assistance for farmers in these areas to recover from floods in time for the post-/pre-monsoon is called for.

Use of digital tools in Kenya’s potato value chains: Qualitative perspectives from a field visit in Nakuru County

Potato farmers in Kenya face a multitude of challenges throughout the value chain, including limited access to quality seeds and fertilizers, inadequate storage and postharvest handling facilities, and fluctuating market prices. These issues are particularly acute for women and youth, who face additional barriers due to persistent social inequalities in the agricultural sector. Digital tools—such as smartphones, smart sensors, or tools involving remote sensing and GIS mobile mapping, as well as applications for agricultural information, e-marketplaces, e-learning platforms, and digital financing platforms—hold significant potential to address these challenges. For instance, these tools can provide access to valuable agricultural information, weather forecasts, and best management practices, helping farmers make in formed decisions and improve crop management. Mobile apps and platforms can facilitate market access by connecting farmers directly with buyers, which can reduce price fluctuations and ensure fair returns on their produce through price information. Digital tools can also play a crucial role in addressing post harvest losses by providing real-time monitoring and management of storage conditions, helping farmers optimize storage to reduce spoilage and wastage. Additionally, digital platforms can provide farmers with information on proper postharvest handling techniques, including sorting, grading, and packaging, to ensure that potatoes are well processed, prepared, packaged, and marketed with minimal losses. However, the adoption of these tools has been slow in Africa south of the Sahara, hindered by infrastructural gaps, high costs, and low digital literacy, thereby limiting their scalability and impact (Aker et al. 2016, Aker and Cariolle 2022, Abate et al. 2023).

Healthy Diets: Practices, misconceptions, and expert recommendations

Program Description: This live radio interview, broadcast on Radio Fana (a leading government media outlet in Ethiopia), focused on the crucial role of healthy diets in overall well-being. The program, conducted in collaboration with the Mathewois Woldu Cancer Society – an organization dedicated to cancer awareness and prevention – explored the significance of nutrition in cancer prevention and overall health. As a leading nutrition expert, I was invited to share my insights on balanced eating habits, the impact of diet on preventing chronic diseases like cancer, and practical advice for maintaining a healthy lifestyle. The discussion also addressed common misconceptions surrounding food choices, clarified nutritional myths, and provided listeners with evidence-based guidance for making informed dietary decisions. The objective of the session was to equip the public with reliable information and to promote healthier eating habits across Ethiopia, ultimately contributing to better health outcomes and cancer prevention. The collaboration with the Mathewois Woldu Cancer Society underscored the importance of nutrition in the fight against cancer and the empowerment of the community through knowledge.

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline farmers’ survey instrument

Nigeria school feeding program: Train the trainers training manual

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline cooks’ survey instrument

Nigeria school feeding program: Pre- and post-test training quiz questions for cooks

Nigeria school feeding program: Baseline school administrators’ survey instrument

Understanding the diffusion pattern of potato varieties in India

Myanmar Monthly Food Price Report – October 2024

The rapidly evolving food security situation in Myanmar requires a high frequency, systematic and comprehensive approach to monitoring. The Myanmar monthly food price report synthesizes food price trends using publicly available datasets, focusing on key agricultural crops and highlighting regional differences in rice prices. By analyzing these trends, the report aims to provide insights into the broader agricultural market and the factors driving food price fluctuations in Myanmar.

Climate change and food security in Africa’s drylands

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Philippines

Child stunting is a persistent problem in the Philippines. While stunting prevalence is higher in rural than in urban areas, it still affects one in four children under the age of five in urban areas and coexists with rising overweight in school-age children, adolescents, and adults. Some urban nutrition interventions have focused on reducing diet-related noncommunicable disease (NCD) risks, but they have not addressed the challenges of the double burden of malnutrition (DBM) (e.g., the coexistence of problems of undernutrition and overnutrition) in school-age children and adolescents. Likewise, the lack of evidence on interventions in the urban food environment (FE) signals a need for studies to better understand the role of FEs in driving unhealthy dietary changes and the DBM and to test approaches to shift consumption patterns toward healthier diets and lifestyles. NCDs are the leading cause of mortality in the Philippines, and NCD risks are higher in urban areas than rural ones. National policies support nutrition with multisectoral approaches, particularly through urban farming and gardening to promote healthy and affordable urban diets. Yet the urban-specific programs must be evaluated. Evaluations of urban agricultural initiatives are needed to document any impact on diets and nutrition and to assess the potential for scale up, especially given land scarcity in dense urban areas. Additionally, multisectoral double-duty actions must be developed to address all forms of malnutrition.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Sri Lanka

Key Messages Child stunting has declined in both rural and urban areas since 2016, but still affects a third of children on estates. Wasting prevalence has increased dramatically since 2016, reaching an alarming prevalence of 20 percent in urban areas. There is insufficient intake of nutritious foods, particularly in rural areas, and diet quality is negatively influenced by obesogenic food environments as the urbanization process continues. The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.58 to $4.77 per person per day from 2017 to 2022, and 41 percent of the population is unable to afford a healthy diet. The prevalence of overweight, obesity and noncommunicable diseases is increasing nationally with higher burdens of overweight and obesity in urban populations and among women. National nutrition policies reference urban areas but do not adequately address the dual challenges of undernutrition (such as wasting) and overnutrition (such as overweight, obesity, and NCDs) common to urban contexts. Evidence is lacking on how to effectively address the double burden of malnutrition, yet clearly double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition will be essential.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Bangladesh

Urban-rural disparities in undernutrition in children under five have dissipated. Stunting declined from 2014 to 2022 in both urban and rural areas, but more so in rural areas, leading to comparable rates of stunting in urban and rural areas (22 percent, 24 percent). Wasting remains “high” (according to the World Health Organization) in both urban and rural areas (11 percent). The prevalence of child overweight is low but increasing, especially in Dhaka. Vitamin A deficiency affects half of children under five. Vitamin D and iron deficiencies are higher in urban areas, with zinc and iodine deficiencies more prevalent in rural areas. Urban and rural diets lack fruits and vegetables. A third of urban households have inadequate caloric intake. The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.03 to $3.64 per person per day from 2017– 2022 and the percentage of the population unable to afford a healthy diet fell from 65 to 48 percent. Currently, 82 million people are unable to afford a healthy diet in the country. The diet diversity of young children has improved since 2011, but gains were seen mostly in rural areas. The percentage of all children fed the minimum meal frequency dropped by 20 percentage points from 2017 to 2022. Urban informal settlements are a concern – children have higher rates of stunting, lower dietary diversity, and higher prevalence of micronutrient deficiencies compared to other urban children. Overweight and obesity in urban adults is a critical problem. More urban women (48 percent) are overweight compared to rural women (35 percent); the same is true for urban men (29 percent) compared to 17 percent for rural men. Some urban nutrition interventions to tackle child undernutrition are being implemented, but few have been rigorously evaluated. Data on urban food environments (FEs) is becoming more available, but there are gaps in knowledge, particularly on the design and evaluation of interventions to counter the influence of the country’s increasingly obesogenic urban FE. National policies include targeted actions to improve urban diets and nutrition. More could be done, however, to improve the healthiness and safety of FEs, leverage social protection programs for the urban poor to make healthy diets more affordable, and to implement double-duty actions to address all forms of malnutrition.

Resilient cities urban nutrition profile: Peru

Key Messages -Peru has made significant strides in reducing the burden of stunting, but progress has stalled: 8 percent of urban children and 20 percent of rural children are stunted. -Overweight and obesity in women have been highly prevalent for more than a decade, with no signs of improvement; they affected 66 percent of urban and 61 percent of rural women in 2023). The problem also affects school-age children, adolescents, and adult men. -Peru has the third highest urban sugar intake among eight countries in the region, but saturated fat intake is comparatively lower than the regional average (6.5% of total energy compared to 9.7%). Among all adults, consumption of fruits and vegetables is low. -The cost of a healthy diet increased from $3.28 to $4.00 per person per day from 2017 to 2022, and 34% of the total population is unable to afford a healthy diet. -Urban food environment (FE) studies, which mostly focus on Lima, Peru’s capital, should be expanded to other urban areas (e.g., smaller urban areas and Amazonia) and to rural areas where FEs have also started to undergo rapid changes. -Research is needed to better understand how level of urbanicity, region (Amazon/Andean), ethnicity, or settlement type intersect to affect nutrition and diets. -Evidence regarding the success of urban nutrition interventions is inconsistent and there is limited guidance on how nutrition programs can be adapted to urban contexts. -Double-duty actions to address poor diets and the multiple forms of malnutrition that are affecting both urban and rural areas are urgently needed. These should include a redesign of social protection programs to ensure that they focus on healthy foods and meals and address all forms of malnutrition, especially among school-age children and women. -While Peru has nutrition policies that both cover urban dwellers and encourage consumer demand for healthier diets and improved access to food, these programs should be adapted to effectively do double duty in preventing all forms of malnutrition, particularly overweight. -Policy implementation and enforcement must be strengthened to address obesogenic FEs. In addition, accompanying interventions that target children and adolescents and innovations that stimulate consumer demand for healthier and more sustainable diets are needed.

Resilient Cities urban nutrition profile: Ethiopia

Key Messages -Undernutrition has declined over time, but stunting still affects 40 percent of rural children and 25 percent of urban children. -Micronutrient deficiencies—especially deficiencies in folate, zinc and Vitamin D—are a critical concern, particularly for urban women and girls. -Dietary quality is low in both rural and urban areas: while urban diets are moderately more diverse than rural ones, rising consumption of unhealthy foods is more of a concern than in rural areas at this time. -The cost of consuming a healthy diet in Ethiopia increased from US $2.83 to $3.72 from 2017—2022, and over half of the population is currently unable to afford a healthy diet. -Concurrent conflict and climate shocks are causing acute nutritional needs in some regions. Humanitarian food aid is key to reducing food insecurity and should be provided to households without access to land who rely on income for food purchases, such as those in urban areas. -Overweight and obesity are still uncommon among young children but are increasing rapidly among urban women. In urban areas, 20 percent of women are overweight, compared to 4 percent in rural areas. The rise in urban overweight is driven by lifestyle changes associated with urbanization and unhealthy food environments, which are associated with poor quality diets and reduced physical activity. -Overnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases are especially prevalent in Addis Ababa. -Food safety is a challenge, and evidence is lacking on how to improve vendor safety knowledge and practices to protect consumer health. -National social protection programs often fail to reach the urban poor and lack explicit nutrition interventions in urban areas. -There is a need to design and test urban nutrition interventions that address both over and undernutrition (such as double-duty actions) in urban populations.

The socioeconomic impact of armed conflict on Sudanese urban households: Evidence from a National Urban Household Survey

Eighteen months of war have deeply affected urban households in Sudan: 31 percent have been displaced, full-time employment has plummeted by half, over 70 percent of the urban households in Sudan had all or some of school-aged kids stop attending school, and only one out of seven urban households can access full health services—concluded a new joint study from the United Nations Development Programme (UNDP) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), launched today. “The Socioeconomic Impact of Armed Conflict on Sudanese Urban Households” study provides a comprehensive assessment of how the ongoing conflict affects urban households in Sudan. With two-thirds of the fighting concentrated in cities of over 100,000 people, understanding impacts of the war on urban livelihoods is crucial for addressing both immediate economic challenges and long-term development obstacles. The study is based on analyses of a comprehensive survey of urban households across the country that both organizations conducted between May 2024 and July 2024, including 3,000 households.

Nutrition and diet profile: Benin

Key Findings: -In Benin, undernutrition and micronutrient deficiencies are prevalent, and the prevalence of overweight and obesity is increasing. -Diets in Benin have declined in quality over time, particularly among children. For example, low dietary diversity and inadequate fruit and vegetable consumption are prevalent. -Food-based dietary guidelines exist; however, awareness of the guidelines is unknown. -Most nutrition policies in Benin lack guidance on promoting fruit and vegetable intake. -Stronger evidence related to how to improve diet quality and combat malnutrition in Benin is needed to develop relevant interventions and policies.

Monitoring the agri-food system in Myanmar: Agricultural crop traders – June 2024 survey

To document changes in the mid-stream of Myanmar’s food value chains, a phone survey of commodity traders was conducted in June 2024 with a sample of 187 active traders in 12 states and regions. Key Findings: -Cellphone network challenges rival transportation challenges in both their prevalence and impact, affecting more than half the traders and doubling since 2023. -More than 30 percent of traders reported being affected by exchange rate volatility and inflation, export/import challenges, and local and regional conflict. Notably, most encountered these shocks in April, May, and June 2024. -Reported credit challenges are at their highest points in the past three years. The proportion of traders offering credit to farmers has decreased, and for some, the credit terms have shifted to higher interest rates and extended loan durations. -Prices for the six most common commodities in our data have increased markedly in the past two years. Trader sales prices of rice were three times higher in June 2024 than in April 2022. -Margins in June 2024 were 0.8 points higher than in April 2023. Rising trading margins could reflect increasing transport or transactions costs in trading, and are generally a negative sign for agrifood system efficiency. Looking Ahead: -Communication challenges in cellphone networks together with widespread transport disruptions could lead to inefficiencies in spatial arbitrage and widening gaps between consumer and producer prices. -Credit challenges are increasing and rising prices will place greater financial stress on the farmers and traders alike. -More than 40 percent of traders consider the general inflation and exchange rate volatility as a negative shock that reduces their business revenues. This survey was conducted before a large currency devaluation in informal markets and widespread flooding in Myanmar impacting agricultural production and livelihoods. These shocks add additional stress to the food system.