Publications and Datasets

Agrifood value chains in India: A state-level analysis using a social accounting matrix

This study describes disparities in per capita income, in the structure of the economy, and in agrifood systems (AFS) across states in India. We use the gross value added (GVA) obtained from state-specific agrifood value chains (AVCs) to describe the size and structure of the AFS in each state of India. This study also presents the size of employment and variability in labor productivity within the AFS across states. A special focus is given to female and youth employment in the state specific AVCs. The 2017/18 state-level social accounting matrix (SAM) for India is the primary data source for estimating statewise GVA from the AFS. Periodic Labor Force Survey data are used to estimate the size of AFS employment. Our results reveal that the bottom half of the Indian population has an average per capita income of US$1,019, 2.5 times lower than that of the top half. India’s AFS is valued at $756 billion, or 31 percent of its GVA. Primary agriculture comprises 59 percent of the AFS, and off-farm activities the rest. The share of off-farm activities in the AFS rises moving from lower-income states to higher-income states, corroborating the theory of structural transformation. The national average share of female workers in total employment is 23 percent and the majority of women who do work are engaged in primary agriculture. The share of women employed in the primary agriculture sector does not change between low- and high-income states in India. In contrast, the share of youth in primary agriculture declines between lower- and higher-income states. Since state governments in India are empowered to design their own policy and development strategies, this study provides an important policy insight to both the federal (central) and state governments.

Child growth and development in rural Papua New Guinea

Stakeholder disconnect: Differences between farmers, extension workers, and researchers on preferred strategies for timely wheat sowing in Bihar, India

Late sowing of wheat is a persistent problem in South Asia despite widespread awareness that it lowers crop yields. We asked 2034 farmers, 33 researchers, and 114 frontline extension workers (EW) in Bihar, India to rank 6 commonly recommended solutions for their effectiveness. Respondents faced repeated rounds of best-worst choices to obtain a full ranking of the options. Responses were analyzed using random utility models. Farmers ranked timely and affordable irrigation as the most effective solution and zero-tillage (ZT) the least effective one; researchers ranked ZT the highest. The EW were somewhere in the middle. A better understanding of the reasons behind the differences in the assessments of researchers, extension personnel, and farmers about what will work the best will generate better solutions.

How helpful are the “hidden costs of food systems” numbers?

Comprehensive mapping of food systems is necessary to guide transformation efforts: The case of Rwanda

Rwanda has made significant strides in improving its food systems, with notable progress in reducing malnutrition and stunting, especially among children. Stunting rates declined from over 50% in the early 2000s to 33% by 2020, reflecting the government’s commitment to addressing food insecurity and enhancing nutrition through a range of agricultural and public health initiatives. The country’s Crop Intensification Program (CIP) has played a pivotal role in increasing agricultural productivity, especially for staple crops like maize, beans, and Irish potatoes, which has contributed to better food availability across the country. Despite these achievements, substantial challenges persist. Almost 19% of households still face food insecurity, with the highest prevalence in rural areas. Additionally, malnutrition continues to affect vulnerable populations, with anemia rates among women of reproductive age at 37%, signaling gaps in nutrition security. Environmental concerns, including soil degradation, water scarcity, and climate change, further complicate efforts to sustain agricultural productivity. Approximately 40% of Rwanda’s land is affected by soil erosion, and shifting climate patterns pose increasing risks to agricultural yields. These challenges indicate the need for a more strategic, research-based approach to understanding and transforming Rwanda’s food system.

The case for post Malabo Agenda implementation guidelines

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP), developed by the African Union (AU) in 2003, marked a significant turning point for Africa’s agricultural development. CAADP’s objective was to transform agriculture into a key driver of economic growth, poverty reduction, and food security across the continent. Through a focus on increasing agricultural productivity and ensuring that agricultural development was aligned with national and regional priorities, CAADP sought to tackle Africa’s persistent challenges of hunger, malnutrition, and economic stagnation. In 2014, the Malabo Declaration was introduced as the second phase of CAADP implementation, with a new set of ambitious targets aimed at ending hunger and halving poverty by 2025. The declaration reinforced the importance of agricultural-led growth and committed African governments to specific goals, including increasing agricultural productivity by at least 6% annually and allocating at least 10% of national budgets to agriculture. It also emphasized sustainable agriculture, resilience to climate change, and equitable access to resources, particularly for women and smallholder farmers.

The case for food system knowledge support system (FS-KSS)

The Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) Strategy and Action Plan (2026-2035) is a key framework aimed at transforming Africa’s agrifood systems to achieve sustainable agricultural growth, food security, and economic development across the continent. Building on the lessons from the Malabo Declaration, the Plan emphasizes the need for sustainable food production, inclusivity, and resilience in the face of climate change and other challenges. However, achieving these ambitious goals requires a robust and integrated support system that can provide accurate, real time data, facilitate evidence-based decision-making, and promote accountability among stakeholders. Without a well-functioning knowledge system, the efforts to transform agrifood systems may be hindered by data gaps, limited analytical capacity, and a lack of coordination among various actors. The effectiveness of food systems in Africa is often hindered by data gaps, inconsistencies, and limited capacity for data analysis. These issues compromise the ability of governments and other stakeholders to make informed decisions, implement sound policies, and monitor progress toward national and continental goals such as food security and climate resilience. This is where the Food System Knowledge Support System (FS-KSS) becomes crucial, as it provides the necessary tools to ensure effective implementation of the CAADP Strategy and Action Plan.

Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take up residence at the White House for the second time, US farmers nervously await what is in store for the agricultural sector, particularly in trade. In 2018 and 2019, US agriculture suffered from collateral damage during the previous Trump administration as the president’s unilateral actions on trade against foreign suppliers of US imports had serious repercussions for US agricultural exports.

IFPRI’s approach to research

The International Food Policy Research Institute provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end malnutrition in low-and middle-income countries and has played a vital role in informing policies, programs, and investments since its founding in 1975. This document provides a brief introduction to IFPRI and sets out how we approach our research, along with the scope of our current work.

Intrahousehold dynamics in South Asia: Understanding the relationships between women’s empowerment, task sharing, decision making, and diets among women

Despite the growing evidence on the role of women in agriculture and nutrition, interlinkages between empowerment among women, gendered task allocation, and nutrition are rarely studied together. Using data from the Transforming Agrifood Systems in South Asia (TAFSSA), a household survey that used a plate-to-farm assessment approach in three countries (Bangladesh, India and Nepal), the paper investigates the associations between empowerment of women, gendered task allocation, decision-making among women, and diets among women. Our findings reveal complex and context-specific differences in associations between task allocation, decision-making and empowerment among. While agency in decision-making among women is positively associated with empowerment in all three country contexts, associations between gendered task allocation and empowerment vary. The share of tasks performed by females, particularly in agriculture and food preparation) is positively associated with empowerment among women, but the proportion of tasks shared equally between males and females does not necessarily empower women. Gendered task allocation and empowerment among women are not significantly associated with diets of women in the three countries, owing to the greater importance of broader socio-economic and context-specific factors such as wealth, education, and regional factors in explaining the variance in dietary outcomes. These findings highlight the need to take a holistic approach that addresses gender norms and household resource constraints to improving empowerment of women, while also addressing local accessibility/availability of nutritious foods to enhance the quality of diets of women.

Perceived constraints to healthy diets: Evidence from agrifood system assessments in rural South Asia

The healthfulness of diets in South Asia is limited by socio-economic and public infrastructure challenges. Perceptions about food such as availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience can impact food choice and ultimately diets. However, there are limited tools to understand consumers’ perceptions of these factors and if perceptions relate to actual food intake. Using a novel tool administered across five rural districts in Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, we quantify the association between food perceptions and food intake. A Likert scale (agree, neutral, disagree) was used to capture respondents’ perceptions about seven food choice drivers (affordability, accessibility, desirability, convenience, food quality, food safety, availability) for a list of six common foods. For each food, principal Component Analysis (PCA) was used to identify latent “drivers”. The association between these and diets (using 24-hour dietary recall data) was estimated using multivariable regression analysis. There was considerable heterogeneity across countries with respect to the relative importance of food choice drivers and diet quality. There is a need to measure and understand individual food perceptions that drive food choice to help develop policies that promote healthier food choices.

IFPRI Malawi monthly maize market report, December 2024

Highlights Retail prices of maize increased by 15 percent in December. Maize prices were lowest in the Northern region, where informal imports from Tanzania enter the country, and increased southward. At the market exchange rate, retail prices of maize in Malawi were similar to those in Zambia and lower than in Mozambique and Zimbabwe.

Use of fertilizers in agriculture sector of Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s heavily relies on imported mineral fertilizers. Fertilizers, particularly nitrogen and phosphorus, are crucial for enhancing crop yields, increasing income and supporting farmers’ livelihoods. However, limited access to this input, along with rising global fertilizer prices, has restricted farmers’ ability to fully benefit from them. Particularly due to the result of this, agricultural productivity has been constrained, affecting food security and farmer incomes. Key challenges • Fertilizer application rates, particularly for both mineral and organic types, remain below the recommended norms set by the Ministry of Agriculture (MoA). Farmers across the country, especially smallholders, struggle to apply adequate amounts of fertilizers due to high costs and limited access. • Access to high-quality mineral fertilizers is further hindered by the country’s dependency on imports, which can exacerbate local price volatility. • Fertilizer use varies across different regions of Tajikistan. In Khatlon and Sughd regions fertilizer use is higher, particularly for cotton and vegetable farming. However, in other regions fertilizer use remains comparatively low, limiting agricultural productivity. • While fertilizers are essential for improving crop yields, excessive or inefficient use can lead to environmental risks, including soil salinity and degradation. Careful management of fertilizer use is needed to prevent harm to biodiversity and soil ecosystems, particularly in regions with intensive farming, such as those producing cotton. Recommended actions • Promote training on organic fertilizer benefits and sustainable practices like composting. Support better manure management to increase organic fertilizer application. • Abolishing or reducing value added tax and import tariffs for fertilizers could make them more cost-effective and attainable for farmers. • Introduce targeted subsidies for mineral fertilizers to make fertilizers more affordable and accessible. • Promote efficient fertilizer use and broader sustainable practices like soil conservation and integrated pest management to ensure long-term productivity.

Agrifood trade in Tajikistan

Despite being an agrarian economy, Tajikistan heavily relies on agrifood imports. Agrifood imports have increased sharply in recent years, while export growth has been modest. This brief outline the key trends in Tajikistan’s agrifood trade and provides policy recommendations to reduce import dependence and boost domestic agricultural production. Key trends in agrifood trade • Between 2000 and 2023, Tajikistan’s agrifood imports grew 16 times, with vegetable products (primarily cereals) and prepared foodstuffs (sugar, animal fodder, flour, oil) accounting for 83 percent of total imports. • While imports have surged, agrifood exports have grown by only 2.2 times during the same period. Exports remain concentrated in a few products, with dry fruits and nuts making up 75 percent of total agrifood exports in 2023. • Processed food imports have significantly increased, reflecting both changing consumer preferences and domestic production gaps. This shift, particularly in urban areas, underscores the growing role of imports in meeting demand for food products beyond basic staples. • Tajikistan’s agrifood imports and exports are dominated by trade with Commonwealth of Independent States (CIS) countries. These long-standing trade ties reflect logistical advantages and shared histories. However, this reliance on a narrow set of trading partners limits the potential to access new, more lucrative markets. Recommended actions • Tajikistan needs to focus on modernizing its agricultural sector to raise productivity and lessening the country’s reliance on imports. • Strengthening Tajikistan’s agrifood processing sector will help reduce the growing dependency on processed food imports. Investments in food processing infrastructure and the promotion of local agribusinesses could meet the rising demand for processed products. • Diversifying the range of exported agrifood products is crucial. Developing processing industries and value added products can help reduce dependency on a few commodities and open doors to new export markets. • While CIS countries are important trading partners, Tajikistan should explore opportunities to expand market access outside the region. Improving the quality of agrifood exports and meeting international standards will enable the country to participate in more global value chains and trade agreements.

Agricultural advisory services in Tajikistan: Private sector role

Agricultural advisory services (AAS) may play a crucial role in supporting Tajikistan’s food security and rural development by helping farmers to increase productivity, adopt new technologies, and access to the markets. Despite their significance, AAS remain underdeveloped with limited coverage and accessibility. Strengthening AAS through government support, private sector engagement, and in partnership with NGOs can address the challenges and contribute to sustainable growth of the sector. Key challenges and developments • Limited coverage and accessibility: In 2021, around 5 percent of Tajikistan’s farms and 14 percent of arable land benefited from professional AAS, while over 90 percent of farmers need these services. • Resource constraints: Financial needs and limited number of AAS providers are the main constraints to scaling-up the services to meet nationwide farmers’ needs. • Positive impacts of current initiatives: Despite limited resources, Sarob and Neksigol Mushovir private and non-profit cooperatives through providing AAS to the farmers contributes on yield increases across the country, at the same time reduce an irrigation water use. • Digital innovation: Neksigol Mushovir’s AgroSpace platform, with mobile applications, e-library resources, and online consultations, has significantly improved access to agricultural knowledge. • Climate-smart agriculture: Sarob’s initiatives in climate-smart practices, such as zero tillage and water-saving technologies, have reduced inputs use and an increased crops yield. Recommended actions • Expand institutional support: Public support to scaling up of the AAS is crucial. • Enhance public-private partnerships: Encourage collaboration between public institutions, private sector, and NGOs to pool resources and knowledge is vital to expanding AAS to the farmers. • Enhance digital solutions for AAS: Invest in digital platforms to provide accessible, low-cost advisory services, real-time market information, and climate adaptation tools to the farmers. • Focus on climate resilience: Scale up climate-smart agricultural practices and provide training in water management, pest control, and sustainable farming techniques to enhance productivity under changing climate conditions.

Rural diets under pressure: Food environments and their influence on food choice in South Asia

The rapid South Asia rural transformation, driven by globalization and industrialization, has introduced a complex interaction between traditional and modern food systems. This study characterizes rural food environments in five districts across Bangladesh, India, and Nepal, focusing on how affordability, availability, accessibility, desirability, and convenience shape dietary choices and quality. Through extensive household and market surveys, we find rural diets characterized by low intake of healthy foods and moderate to high consumption of unhealthy options, influenced by a lack of affordability and the desirability and widespread availability of cheap ultra-processed products in rural markets. Snacking plays a significant role in shaping dietary patterns, promoting both dietary diversity and unhealthy food consumption. These findings provide essential insights for designing interventions tailored to rural food systems, supporting efforts to improve nutrition and health outcomes in rapidly changing markets.

The political economy of food self sufficiency policies and food security in African countries

Food security deteriorated in Africa during the past decade, and the number of undernourished people has been increasing since 2010. The prevalence of undernourishment is now above pre-pandemic levelsat 9.7% compared with 7.2% in 2019, and Africa reports the highest level in the world. External factors, such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict, have contributed to this increase Projections show that almost 600 million people in Africa will be chronically undernourished in 2030. Moreover, Africa is not on track for SDG2, eradicate hunger by 2030. To achieve food security and reduce the number of undernourished people, many policymakers are advocating for food self-sufficiency. Relying on local production and promoting it through various policy measures, including restrictive trade policies, appears to many to be a natural solution. Yet, there has been a long-standing debate among analysts as to whether trade restrictions are a good strategy, especially in Africa, to achieve food security. The proponents of food self-sufficiency argue that trade liberalization increases food dependency (and import bills) and makes consumers vulnerable to external shocks in food availability, as well as exposing them to unhealthy foods. They advocate for stimulating local production with subsidies and trade restrictions. For the opponents, opening borders to international trade is a guarantee of cheap and easy access to diversified food products. Furthermore, by partially decoupling local markets from domestic shocks, trade can also help stabilize domestic food markets. This report contributes to that debate. Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, we reach the conclusion that food self-sufficiency is neither a necessary nor a sufficient condition for food security. Food security is a multidimensional concept, and only two dimensions– availability and utilization—seem to be affected by food self-sufficiency in Africa. Also, while public support to agriculture can help achieve food self-sufficiency, its impact is not linear, and beyond a certain threshold, diminishing returns are observed. Overall, different approaches can achieve food security, and there is no “one-size-fits-all strategy.” International or regional trade can contribute to food security and stabilize domestic food markets, as regional production is usually less volatile than domestic supply.

Agriculture sector reform and sectoral programs in Tajikistan

Tajikistan’s agricultural sector, despite its challenging environment and limited natural resources, remains a vital component of the national economy, providing employment and income for a significant portion of the rural population. However, the sector faces critical challenges including inefficient land use, outdated farming practices, inadequate infrastructure, and the lingering influence of Soviet-era agricultural systems. Since the early 1990s, Tajikistan has embarked on a series of agricultural reforms aimed at improving productivity and sustainability. Key reforms include land redistribution, water sector restructuring, and the adoption of policies to modernize the agricultural sector. The “Agriculture Reform Program” (ARP) for 2012-2020 was a major initiative targeting structural changes in land and water management, as well as the reorientation of the Ministry of Agriculture from a central planning body to a facilitator and regulator.

What adults in rural South Asia eat and when they eat it: Evidence from Bangladesh, India, and Nepal

Background Poor diets pose a threat to all forms of malnutrition and diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs). Data on dietary patterns are scarce in South Asia. Objectives We sought to describe overall diet quality, intake of foods and food groups, and eating occasions among adults in rural South Asia. Methods Data were from five districts across Bangladesh (n=2,802 individuals), India (n=1,672), and Nepal (n=1,451). The Global Diet Quality Score (GDQS) application was used to measure intake of foods on the previous day, with each food tagged to an eating occasion. Diet quality and the risk of diet-related noncommunicable diseases (NCDs) were described using GDQS total (0–49), GDQS positive (0–32) and GDQS negative (0–17) metrics for overall, healthy, and unhealthy food intake respectively. Results Diet quality was low, with similar scores across countries for GDQS total (17-19 depending on country), GDQS positive (7–8) and GDQS negative (10–12), indicating low intake of healthy foods as the main contributor to poor diets. Over 90% of adults had levels of GQDS scores associated with moderate/high risk for diet-related NCDs, with the proportion at high risk in Bangladesh being 2-3x higher than other countries. Across sites, intake of refined grains (white rice), sweets (sugar, biscuits), and white tubers (potatoes) was common. One-third of adults did not eat breakfast in Nepal, and snacking was twice as common in males (63%) versus females (33%) in Bangladesh. Conclusions These findings highlight the need to improve diets in rural South Asia and may help inform interventions targeting food intake patterns.

Assessing food acquisition, preparation, and consumption practices in South Asia: A systematic review of assessment tools

Assessing behaviors related to food choice at individual- and household-levels is essential for improving household diets, but assessment tools are limited. We conducted a systematic review to identify gaps in existing assessment tools for food acquisition, preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, wherein diets are rapidly changing, and triple burden of malnutrition is emerging. Systematic search of three academic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science Core Collection) using pre-defined keywords were undertaken to identify studies assessing food acquisition, food preparation, and household consumption practices in South Asia, published in English between 2000 and December 2023. Following PRISMA guidelines, two reviewers independently screened titles, abstracts, and full texts based on the inclusion criteria, and extracted data on study characteristics and the assessment tools used to examine the food choice behaviors. Of 11,288 unique articles identified, 46 were included for synthesis. Food acquisition behaviors were assessed by 25 studies, food preparation by eight studies and household consumption practices by 26 studies. Most studies used quantitative methods (n=30), some used qualitative (n=13), and few used mixed methods (n=3), and varied by type of behavior assessed. Likert scales were the most widely used tools of quantitative assessments, while semi-structured interviews were the most common for qualitative assessments. Across the 46 studies, 59 different tools were used to assess food-related behaviors and only 14 studies claimed using validated tools and many studies did not include the full tool in the text or supplement (n=22). Our review highlights the need for expanding food choice behavior assessments to include the less-studied populations such as exploring young children and adolescents’ food choice behaviors and developing a contextually adaptable repository of validated tools to advance our understanding of food choice behaviors in various settings.

Does rural non-farm employment relieve or exacerbate the agricultural diversification-farm efficiency tradeoff: The case of aquaculture in Bangladesh

This paper studies how rural non-farm employment conditions the relationship between agricultural diversification and fish production efficiency. Competition for scarce productive resources typically implies a compromise between agricultural diversification and efficiency. Yet, the potential for non-farm income to resolve this tradeoff remains understudied. Cash from non-farm sources may support productivity-enhancing input purchase, thereby improving efficiency. On the other hand, by diversifying both on- and off-farm, household resources such as labor may be stretched too thin, lowering fish production efficiency. Using micro-level data on fish farming households in Southern Bangladesh, we show that at higher levels of the non-farm income share, diversification into crops results in significant allocative inefficiencies. Results are inconclusive for the technical efficiency measure.

The power of the anticorruption campaign: Evidence from cigarette and alcohol consumption in China

Biofortification as a food-based strategy to improve nutrition in high-income countries: A scoping review

Biofortification (increasing the micronutrient content of food before harvest) has been successfully used to nutritionally improve staple foods in low- and middle-income countries. This approach could also help address micronutrient shortfalls in at-risk populations in high-income countries (HICs), however, the potential of biofortification interventions in this context is not well understood. The aim of this scoping review is to assess the nature and extent of available research evidence on biofortified foods in relation to human consumption in HICs. Literature searches were conducted in MEDLINE, WoS, ProQuest, CINAHL, AGRIS and Epistemonikos. Forty-six peer-reviewed articles were included. Most research was conducted in the USA (n = 15) and Italy (n = 11), on cereal crops (n = 14) and vegetables (n = 11), and on selenium (n = 12) and provitamin A (n = 11). Seven research domains were identified in the literature: bioavailability (n = 17); nutrient stability (n = 11); opinions and attitudes (n = 9); functionality (n = 9); sensory properties (n = 2); safety (n = 1); and modeling (n = 1). Evidence from HICs in each domain is limited. There is a need for more research particularly in areas sensitive to the cultural and socio-economic context.

Polycentric governance of commons through multi-stakeholder platforms: Insights from two case studies in India

This paper examines the complexities of commons governance, focusing on the role of multistakeholder platforms (MSPs) in addressing tensions among diverse decision-making centers. Drawing on the experiences of the Indian NGO Foundation for Ecological Security (FES) in Gujarat and Odisha, the study analyzes two MSPs operating at the block level, engaging communities, government, and private sector actors. Through surveys, interviews, and analysis of institutional reports, the research identifies key benefits of MSPs, including enhanced multi-stakeholder engagement, scale, and enabling conditions. It argues that MSPs can effectively support polycentric governance by facilitating inter-community collaboration, strengthening local voices, and building trust over time. The study also underscores the importance of external actors like NGOs in supporting community agency and fostering collaboration across different governance levels.

Do youth work in agriculture? Short-term dynamics of on-farm rural youth employment in Tanzania and Malawi

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product among smallholder farmers in Kenya

Can survey design reduce anchoring bias in recall data? Evidence from smallholder farmers in Malawi

Recall biases in retrospective self-reported survey data have important implications for empirical research. We leverage the survey design literature and test three strategies to attenuate mental anchoring in retrospective data collection: question ordering, retrieval cues and aggregate (community) anchoring. We focus on maize production and happiness reports among smallholder farmers in Malawi. Asking for retrospective before concurrent data on average reduces recall bias (i.e. the deviation of the recalled versus the concurrent outcome reported in the previous period) by 34 per cent for maize production, a meaningful improvement with no increase in data collection costs. Retrieval cues are less successful and community anchors can exacerbate the bias. None of the strategies help to ease the recall bias for happiness reports.

In good times and in bad, in sickness and in health: The continuous rise in adoption of labour-saving agricultural technologies in Myanmar

Using best-worst scaling to inform agroecological interventions in Western Kenya

Both the demand for food and the environmental impacts of food production are estimated to significantly increase by 2050. Agroecological interventions have proven effective in facilitating the transition from current food production systems to more sustainable ones. These interventions can not only ensure more equitable food and nutritional security but also address poverty and reduce environmental impacts. As such, agroecological interventions can generate both private and public ecosystem services. Farmers play a key role in how food is produced, as the practices they use are linked with their preferences and expertise, as well as the constraints they face. Understanding farmers’ preferences for the adoption of different agroecological practices and their perceptions of the associated costs and benefits is critical to informing policies that can effectively support farmers in transitioning to more sustainable practices, including those that contribute to the generation of ecosystem services highly valued by broader society. To assess such preferences, we conducted a survey among farmers in Western Kenya which included a best-worst scaling experiment augmented by qualitative questions about the reasons for farmers’ views about the importance of the benefits arising from agroecological practices. Results show that farmers have strong preferences for adopting agroecological practices that generate private goods and are directly related to increasing productivity and food security, including improving health of household members. These may also include practices that have some public good elements as well, such as increasing agrobiodiversity. However, practices that generate broader public good benefits, including improved forest quality/coverage, reduced off-farm environmental impacts, greater community-level resilience to shocks, and improved landscape and wildlife management, were less important to farmers. Such findings can be used to inform policies that support farmer adoption of agroecological interventions best suited to different farming communities, as well as indicating the need for additional types of market-based incentives, such as through Payments for Ecosystem Service mechanisms.

Resilience in technical efficiency and enabling factors: Insights from panel farm enterprise surveys in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan

Sustainable poverty reduction through social assistance: Modality, context, and complementary programming in Bangladesh

Social assistance programs can increase consumption and reduce poverty, but less is known about whether these impacts are sustained after programs end, or how design and context influence sustainability. Using data collected in two regions of Bangladesh four years after a randomized intervention ended, we find that combining cash transfers with complementary programming led to sustained increases in consumption and reductions in poverty. Combining food transfers with complementary programming showed similar patterns, to a lesser extent. Cash alone had context-specific sustained effects; food alone had no sustained impacts. Results suggest that context, modality, and complementary programming matter for sustained impacts.

Neonatal mortality risk of vulnerable newborns by fine stratum of gestational age and birthweight for 230 679 live births in nine low- and middle-income countries, 2000-2017.

Objective We aimed to understand the mortality risks of vulnerable newborns (defined as preterm and/or born weighing smaller or larger compared to a standard population), in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Design Descriptive multi-country, secondary analysis of individual-level study data of babies born since 2000. Setting Sixteen subnational, population-based studies from nine LMICs in sub-Saharan Africa, Southern and Eastern Asia, and Latin America. Population Live birth neonates. Methods We categorically defined five vulnerable newborn types based on size (large- or appropriate- or small-for-gestational age [LGA, AGA, SGA]), and term (T) and preterm (PT): T + LGA, T + SGA, PT + LGA, PT + AGA, and PT + SGA, with T + AGA (reference). A 10-type definition included low birthweight (LBW) and non-LBW, and a four-type definition collapsed AGA/LGA into one category. We performed imputation for missing birthweights in 13 of the studies. Main Outcome Measures Median and interquartile ranges by study for the prevalence, mortality rates and relative mortality risks for the four, six and ten type classification. Results There were 238 143 live births with known neonatal status. Four of the six types had higher mortality risk: T + SGA (median relative risk [RR] 2.8, interquartile range [IQR] 2.0–3.2), PT + LGA (median RR 7.3, IQR 2.3–10.4), PT + AGA (median RR 6.0, IQR 4.4–13.2) and PT + SGA (median RR 10.4, IQR 8.6–13.9). T + SGA, PT + LGA and PT + AGA babies who were LBW, had higher risk compared with non-LBW babies. Conclusions Small and/or preterm babies in LIMCs have a considerably increased mortality risk compared with babies born at term and larger. This classification system may advance the understanding of the social determinants and biomedical risk factors along with improved treatment that is critical for newborn health.

Rural underemployment and urbanisation: Insights from a 9-year panel from Malawi

Rural labour markets in Africa are frequently characterised by underemployment, with farmers unable to fully deploy throughout the year one of their most important assets—their labour. Using a nine-year panel data set on 1,407 working-age adults from rural Malawi, we document changes in rural underemployment over this period and how they are associated with urbanisation. Nearby urban growth is linked to increased hours worked in casual labour (ganyu) and in non-agricultural sectors, at the expense of work on the household farm. Improved urban access is also associated with a small increase in wage labour and, at the intensive margin, with hours supplied in household enterprises. We draw lessons from these results for policies, investments and interventions to leverage urban growth for rural development.

Wholesalers and the transformation of Myanmar’s maize value chains

Wholesalers of agricultural crops have historically received limited attention in the literature on agricultural development, which has a strongly productivist focus. When wholesalers are considered, they are often framed as exploitative, taking advantage of information asymmetries, market failures, and unequal power relations to extract heavy surpluses from farmers. However, there is a growing appreciation that wholesalers may play important roles in facilitating agricultural development and rural transformation. This paper evaluates wholesaler conduct and performance using a survey of 218 maize wholesalers in 12 of the major maize-growing and trading townships of South Shan State, Myanmar and the cities of Lashio and Muse in North Shan. Hybrid maize emerged very rapidly in Myanmar over the past two decades to become a major cash crop, supplying domestic animal feed mills and becoming one of Myanmar’s most important exports to China and Thailand. Wholesalers have been central to the development of this supply chain and the sector. Contrary to recent literature from Myanmar that has cast maize wholesalers as exploitative, the survey finds that the rapidly growing wholesaler segment of the maize value chain is highly competitive, rapidly changing with respect to technology, and functions efficiently. Farmers obtaining maize inputs from wholesalers in the form of tied output credit sell their maize at prevailing market rates. The emergence of clusters of maize wholesalers and allied actors such as third-party logistics services occurred spontaneously and symbiotically with the expansion of hybrid maize cultivation, and with each set of actors essential to the emergence of the others.

What do urban consumers want? Findings from a discrete choice experiment on the preference for locally produced staple food in Central Africa: Evidence from the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC)

Technology intensification and farmers’ welfare: A case study from Karnataka, a semi-arid state of India

JEL Codes: Q16, Q54, Q55, C13

Information framing effects on diet choices among Chinese urban residents

Agribusiness innovation, value chain interventions, farmer input use, agricultural productivity, land access and asset ownership

JEL classification: Q12, Q13, D13

Assessing global price shocks and mitigation policies on welfare and food security in Nigeria

Variations in agricultural and energy prices have direct and cascading effects on economic and agri-food systems. In this study, we developed a dynamic general equilibrium model to simulate the impact of the global price shocks induced by the Russia-Ukraine war on welfare and food security in Nigeria. In addition, we analysed the effectiveness of different policy options, specifically a reduction in indirect taxes and an increase in cash transfers to affected households, in the short and long term. The results showed that the shocks create opportunities for Nigeria, particularly in the trade, livestock, and agricultural sectors. This leads to an increase in GDP, employment, and incomes. However, these effects fade over time due to the rise in food prices that negatively affects food consumption and some food security indicators. Moreover, the comparative analysis of mitigation scenarios revealed that targeted public cash transfers to households are more effective than reduction in consumption taxes on food in mitigating the negative effects on households.

Educational responses to local and migration destination shocks: Evidence from China

Over the last 20 years, China has experienced substantial positive shocks to export-oriented industries—especially following its accession to the World Trade Organization—and these shocks have had major implications for human capital investment. One primary channel through which export expansion can shape choices about human capital accumulation is positive labor-demand shocks, and these shocks can be observed both at potential within-country migration destinations and in the locality of birth. Exploiting cross-county variation in the reduction in export tariff uncertainty post-WTO, both locally and at plausible migration destinations, this analysis finds that youth in China reaching matriculation age post-accession in counties experiencing a larger export shock (either locally or at those destinations) show a lower probability of enrolling in high school. This pattern is observed in a sample including both youth who ultimately migrate and youth who do not migrate. For urban youth, the effects of local shocks are larger than the effects of destination shocks, but the opposite pattern is observed for rural youth. A supplementary online appendix is available with this article at The World Bank Economic Review website. JEL classification: F14, F16, J24, O15, O18, O19

Vulnerability of Nigerian maize traders to a confluence of climate, violence, disease and cost shocks

Purpose We study five exogenous shocks: climate, violence, price hikes, spoilage and the COVID-19 lockdown. We analyze the association between these shocks and trader characteristics, reflecting trader vulnerability. Design/methodology/approach Using primary survey data on 1,100 Nigerian maize traders for 2021 (controlling for shocks in 2017), we use probit models to estimate the probabilities of experiencing climate, violence, disease and cost shocks associated with trader characteristics (gender, size and region) and to estimate the probability of vulnerability (experiencing severe impacts). Findings Traders are prone to experiencing more than one shock, which increases the intensity of the shocks. Price shocks are often accompanied by violence, climate and COVID-19 shocks. The poorer northern region is disproportionately affected by shocks. Northern traders experience more price shocks while Southern traders are more affected by violence shocks given their dependence on long supply chains from the north for their maize. Female traders are more likely to experience violent events than men who tend to be more exposed to climate shocks. Research limitations/implications The data only permit analysis of the general degree of impact of a shock rather than quantifying lost income. Originality/value This paper is the first to analyze the incidence of multiple shocks on grain traders and the unequal distribution of negative impacts. It is the first such in Africa based on a large sample of grain traders from a primary survey.

Does aid induce foreign direct investment: Updated evidence from a quasi-experiment

While the catalytic effect of aid on foreign direct investment (FDI) has long been an implicit consensus among many policymakers and practitioners, assessments of this causal relationship remain limited and are not always reliable. To mitigate this evidence gap, this study applies an instrumental variable approach that leverages the graduation of the International Development Association (IDA) income threshold as a quasi-experiment to identify the causal linkage between foreign aid and FDI. The analysis reveals that a 1 percent drop in the ratio of aid to gross national income leads to a decline in FDI relative to gross domestic product by 0.9 percent in 42 developing countries from 1987 to 2019. In face of the aid shock induced by IDA graduation, governments in recipient countries restrict their financial policy openness, through which aid could significantly impact subsequent foreign private investment. Results emphasize the necessity of concerted policy interventions to mitigate this negative aid shock.

Caste, religion and the labor force participation of women: Evidence from India

Rethinking responses to the world’s water crises

Disruptions and adaptations of an urban nutrition intervention delivering essential services for women and children during a major health system crisis in Dhaka, Bangladesh

Systematic crises may disrupt well-designed nutrition interventions. Continuing services requires understanding the intervention paths that have been disrupted and adapting as crises permit. Alive & Thrive developed an intervention to integrate nutrition services into urban antenatal care services in Dhaka, which started at the onset of COVID-19 and encountered extraordinary disruption of services. We investigated the disruptions and adaptations that occurred to continue the delivery of services for women and children and elucidated how the intervention team made those adaptations. We examined the intervention components planned and those implemented annotating the disruptions and adaptations. Subsequently, we detailed the intervention paths (capacity building, supportive supervision, demand generation, counselling services, and reporting, data management and performance review). We sorted out processes at the system, organizational, service delivery and individual levels on how the intervention team made the adaptations. Disruptions included decreased client load and demand for services, attrition of providers and intervention staff, key intervention activities becoming unfeasible and clients and providers facing challenges affecting utilization and provision of services. Adaptations included incorporating new guidance for the continuity of services, managing workforce turnover and incorporating remote modalities for all intervention components. The intervention adapted to continue by incorporating hybrid modalities including both original activities that were feasible and adapted activities. Amidst health system crises, the adapted intervention was successfully delivered. This knowledge of how to identify disruptions and adapt interventions during major crises is critical as Bangladesh and other countries face new threats (conflict, climate, economic downturns, inequities and epidemics).

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Food transfers, cash transfers, behavior change communication and child nutrition: Evidence from Bangladesh

This paper reports the results of two 2-year randomized control trials in two poor rural areas of Bangladesh. Treatment arms included monthly cash transfers, monthly food rations of equivalent value to the cash transfers, and mixed monthly cash and food transfers, and treatment arms—one with food and one with cash—that combined transfers with nutrition-behavior communication change (BCC). This design enables a comparison of transfer modalities within the same experiment. Intent-to-treat estimators show that cash transfers and nutrition BCC had a large impact on nutritional status, a 0.25 standard deviation increase in height-for-age z-scores and a 7.8 percentage point decrease in stunting prevalence. No other treatment arm affected anthropometric outcomes. Mechanisms underlying these impacts are explored. Improved diets—particularly increased intake of animal source foods in the cash plus BCC arm—are consistent with the improvements observed in this paper.

Diets, fruit and vegetables consumption, and nutritional status in Benin: A scoping review

Unhealthy diets, including low fruit and vegetables (F&V) intake, contribute to morbidity and mortality related to non-communicable diseases. Designing culturally appropriate interventions to improve diets and F&V intake requires an in-depth understanding of individual-level dietary patterns, household consumption patterns, and nutritional status resulting from inadequate F&V intake. In this scoping review, we summarised the literature on diets, F&V intake, and nutritional status in Benin. We searched PubMed from 2012 to August 2024 to identify articles on diets and nutritional status, and from 2002 to August 2024 to identify articles on F&V intake. We included 36 articles on diets, 27 on F&V intake, and 16 on nutritional status. Existing literature demonstrated that Beninese diets are cereal-based and monotonous, characterised by low diversity and low F&V intake across all population groups. Available evidence indicated a high burden of undernutrition in children <5 years of age, a rising prevalence of overnutrition in women of reproductive age, and a high prevalence of overnutrition in adults. Evidence on how diets and F&V intake vary by urban/rural location, season, and socioeconomic characteristics was limited and inconsistent. Two evaluations of garden irrigation programmes assessed impacts on women's dietary diversity and F&V consumption. Additional research is needed to improve our understanding of diets, F&V intake, and diet-related nutritional challenges and how they evolve over time and across different population groups. Understanding these gaps can help identify entry points and targets for interventions to improve diet quality and F&V intake in Benin.

The role of industrial clustering: From layoff to self-employment after the Chinese state-owned enterprise reform

Using a list experiment to measure intimate partner violence: Cautionary evidence from Ethiopia

While indirect response methods are increasingly used in surveys to measure sensitive behaviours such as intimate partner violence, important questions persist around how respondents understand and react to these methods. This article presents evidence from a list experiment measuring multiple forms of intimate partner violence in rural Ethiopia. We find that the list experiment does not generate estimates of intimate partner violence that are higher than direct response questions; rather, prevalence estimates using the list experiment are lower vis-à-vis prevalence estimates using the direct reports, and are sometimes even negative. We provide suggestive evidence that this pattern may reflect ‘fleeing’ behaviour by respondents who do not wish to be associated with statements indicating their exposure to intimate partner violence.

Prospects of crop insurance for sustenance of farmers’ livelihood during GM cotton crop failure in Indian Punjab

Despite the susceptibility of cotton crops to pest attacks in the Malwa Region of Indian Punjab, no crop insurance policy has been implemented there– not even the Pradhan Mantri Fasal Bima Yojana (PMFBY), which is a central scheme. Therefore, this paper attempts to gauge the likely impact of the PMFBY on Punjab cotton farmers and assess the changes needed for greater uptake and effectiveness of PMFBY.The authors have conducted a primary survey to conduct this study. Initially, the authors compared the costs of cotton production with the returns in two scenarios (with and without insurance). Additionally, the authors have applied a logistic regression framework to examine the determinants of the willingness of farmers to participate in the crop insurance market.The study finds that net returns of cotton crops are conventionally small and insufficient to cope with damages from crop failure. Yet, PMFBY will require some modifications in the premium rate and the level of indemnity for its greater uptake among Punjab cotton farmers. Additionally, using the logistic regression framework, the authors find that an increase in awareness about crop insurance and farmers’ perceptions about their crop failure in the near future reduces the willingness of the farmers to participate in the crop insurance markets.The present study looks for the viability of PMFBY in Indian Punjab for the cotton crop, which can also be extended to other crops.Punjab could also use crop insurance to encourage diversification in agriculture. There is a need for special packages for diversified crops under any crop insurance policy. Crops susceptible to volatility due to climate-related factors should be identified and provided with a special insurance package.There exist very scant studies that have discussed the viability of a central crop insurance scheme in the agricultural-rich state of India, i.e. Punjab. Moreover, they do not also focus on crop losses accruing due to pest and insect attacks.

Relapse after recovery from acute malnutrition

Globally, severe acute malnutrition affects 13·6 million children.1 The WHO-endorsed community-based management of acute malnutrition (CMAM) model is effective in achieving high recovery. However, there is increasing recognition that relapse after recovery is a problem, with a growing number of studies aiming to understand and quantify relapse burden and risk factors.2,3 Knowledge gaps remain in our understanding of the problem and its drivers due to methodological issues, lack of control groups, and inconsistent reporting.

Impacts of city life on nutrition: Evidence From resettlement lotteries in China

Urban environments are thought to improve food security, by offering enhanced access to markets and income opportunities. Yet this idea is hard to test empirically due to an abundance of confounding factors and selection issues. This study leverages a resettlement program in China to provide the first quasi-experimental estimate of city life on food consumption and nutrition among low-income households. Lottery-determined timing of resettlement enables causal inference. We base our empirics on a 3-year panel and a range of difference-in-differences and matching methodologies. We find that those who were resettled to towns significantly increased both food consumption and diet variety, with increased intake of several macro- and micro-nutrients. Diet quality mostly improved, but we also found signs of over-consumption, notably of carbohydrates. Our evidence further suggests that our impacts are primarily due to improved market access. This stands in contrast to recent literature that finds little or no effect of living environments on food consumption. Instead, we reveal a significant impact of urban environments in shaping diets, bolstering the notion that supply-side channels do matter in some contexts. JEL Classification: I15, O18, R23

Diet quality and micronutrient intakes in nutritional value chains: A synthesis and suggestions for further research

This paper provides an overview of a virtual collection of papers analyzing drivers of diet quality and micronutrient intakes, and what has been learnt from various interventions to address micronutrient malnutrition, the contexts in which they succeed, and factors that affect their impact. We frame this using a micronutrient value chain, to highlight the important linkages from farm to plate. Our focus is on representative studies along this value chain in low and middle income countries where micronutrient malnutrition is most prevalent. The papers reviewed suggest that (a) both production diversity and market access work hand-in-hand to improve dietary quality. (b) However, the evidence on whether commercialization improves or reduces diet quality is context-specific and depends on whether markets exist for goods to be sold and micronutrient-rich foods purchased. (c) Not surprisingly, incomes and prices emerge as key factors affecting consumption decisions, with the cost of a healthy diet remaining unaffordable for many. Furthermore, the poor are most sensitive to changes in the relative prices of micronutrient-rich foods. (d) Also important is how food is consumed within the household: the review suggests that social context matters greatly in assessing relationships between women’s empowerment and diet quality. We then review several supply and demand side interventions, and note that while many are successful, not all are easily transferable, and thus may need adaptation to local contexts. We conclude with a set of ten areas that remain open for further research.

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Men can cook: Effectiveness of a men’s engagement intervention to change attitudes and behaviors in rural Ethiopia

Graduation model interventions seek to address multiple barriers constraining households’ exit from poverty, however, few explicitly target restrictive gender norms. Using a randomized controlled trial design, combined with three rounds of data, we investigate the impacts on gender equitable attitudes and behaviors of a graduation program that seeks to address multiple constraints for those in poverty and improve restrictive gender norms in Ethiopia. We find that at 1-year follow-up all treatment arms lead to improvements in men’s gender equitable attitudes and their engagement in household domestic tasks as reported by both men and women; but at 3-year follow-up, impacts are only sustained in the treatment arms that introduced men’s engagement groups after the 1-year follow-up survey to further promote improvements in equitable gender norms.

Methods for estimating beneficiary populations targeted by health and nutrition interventions for women, pregnant women, infants, and young children

Utilization of maternal and child interventions is typically tracked in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs) using coverage estimates from population representative surveys. These estimates cannot be directly applied to assess resource gaps in intervention delivery for which data on the population eligible is required. Moreover, coverage improvements may not necessarily reflect an expansion in utilization because of a decline in the population eligible. We develop a method to estimate the populations eligible for interventions across the continuum of care. The method uses data from the World Population Prospects and the Demographic Health Survey, data sources which are available for most LMICs. Additionally, we develop a method to estimate the eligible population covered by each intervention. Using the illustration of India, we estimate populations eligible for, and covered by interventions during preconception, pregnancy, delivery, lactation, and childhood. We find that between 2015 and 2020, the eligible population declined for all beneficiary groups. Additionally, coverage expansion was not entirely driven by an increase in the population accessing an intervention, but rather also by a decline in the eligible population. Our illustration highlights the importance of including population estimates alongside coverage for interventions, particularly in LMIC contexts due to changing fertility dynamics.

Designing and implementing experiments within local bureaucratic systems: A cautionary tale from an educator incentive program

Collaborating with governments to co-develop pilot programs and integrate them into local administrative systems is increasingly regarded as a key strategy for achieving scalability and sustainability. This study examines a pilot initiative designed in partnership with the Elementary and Secondary Education (E&SE) Department in Pakistan’s Khyber Pakhtunkhwa province, offering important lessons for such collaborations. While the intent to operate within existing bureaucratic frameworks was commendable, it also limited the design and execution of a randomized controlled trial (RCT). This paper explores institutional factors that hindered the RCT’s implementation, resulting in missed opportunities to evaluate critical design elements. The pilot centered on promotion-based incentives for educators and had null effects on a variety of educator and student outcomes. However, using unique video-based evidence, it objectively identifies the implementation challenges and describes the insights gained for more effective co-design and integration of future pilot programs within governmental systems.

Trends and inequities in adequacy of micronutrient intakes in rural Bangladesh

Background Micronutrient deficiencies pose a significant public health challenge, yet limited evidence exists on micronutrient intakes over time in Bangladesh. Objective We assessed trends and adequacies in micronutrient intakes and examined the changes in inequities by age group, sex, and expenditure quintile. Methods We used panel data from the 2011 and 2018 Bangladesh Integrated Household Survey (n =21,475 and 21,589 household members aged ≥2y, respectively). Food consumption data were collected using a household dietary recall. Changes in micronutrient intakes were assessed using non-parametric Mann-Whitney-Wilcoxon rank sum test. Inequities in outcomes were examined using the Slope Index of Inequality and Concentration Index. Results Micronutrient intakes remained suboptimal across 2011 and 2018, with low adequacy (<0.50) for all nutrients except niacin. While vitamin A intake increased across various demographics, trends for other micronutrient intakes differed by age. Intakes improved for 10 micronutrients among children aged 2-<5y, but increased for only half of examined micronutrients among children aged 5-9y. For adolescents and adults, most micronutrient intakes slightly declined, with greater inadequacies observed among females versus males. Pregnant women experienced sharper declines in adequacy of micronutrient intakes than lactating women. The mean probability of adequacy (MPA) was low (around one-third) for all age groups with lower MPA among poorer compared to richer households across age, sex and survey years. Inequity gaps in MPA mostly declined, except for females ≥50y and pregnant women. Conclusions Micronutrient intakes and adequacies remain suboptimal and have decreased marginally over time for many nutrients and MPA across most age groups. Inequities in micronutrient intakes persist by age, sex, and income levels, disproportionately affecting the poor, adults, and women. Our study calls for evidence-based policies and programs that incorporate a range of proven approaches and tailored solutions to effectively tackle persisting inequities and ensure access to healthy diets for all.

Perspective: Can growth monitoring and promotion accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth of individual children? A critical review of the epidemiological foundations

Growth monitoring and promotion (GMP), the process of periodic anthropometric measurements to assess the adequacy of individual child growth, is implemented across low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). The epidemiological foundations of GMP (i.e., that GMP can accurately diagnose or screen for inadequate growth) have never been critically reviewed. We first assessed growth patterns of individual healthy children. Using longitudinal data from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, we evaluated whether commonly used GMP criteria can be used for diagnosis and screening; i.e., if they accurately identify current, or predict subsequent, inadequate growth in individual children. The growth of individual healthy children does not track along a specific growth curve which challenges the notion that growth measurements alone can be used to distinguish between healthy and inadequate growth. We demonstrate that GMP criteria do not provide meaningful diagnostic information and that GMP is not a meaningful screening activity: commonly used GMP criteria are inaccurate predictors of (inadequate) growth later in childhood; and collecting individual children’s weight and height does not help to identify who needs support or who will benefit. Our results do not undermine the importance of dedicated programs to diagnose wasting in individual children nor do they challenge the need for well-child care to support parents and to ensure children’s optimal nutrition, health, and development. Our findings, however, highlight the need to carefully reconsider the current design of GMP in LMICs.

The minimum dietary diversity for women indicator can be extended to children and adolescents aged 4-15 years as a proxy population indicator for good micronutrient adequacy of diets in low- and middle-income countries

Background The response to the global call for more data on children’s and adolescents’ diets and nutrition is limited by the lack of straightforward practical indicators to track their diet quality. On the basis of a food group score compiled from 10 food groups (FGS-10), the minimum dietary diversity for women, calculated as FGS-10 ≥ 5, is a validated proxy population indicator for better micronutrient intake adequacy for adult women in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs). Objectives This study aims to validate FGS-10 and its related cutoffs against micronutrient intake adequacy in 4–15-y-old children/adolescents in LMICs. Methods We conducted a secondary data analysis of 9 datasets of repeated 24-h recalls or weighed records including 11,524 children/adolescents aged 4–15 y, collected in 7 countries (Burkina Faso, Ghana, Ecuador, India, Malawi, Uganda, and Zambia) between 2007 and 2022. For each dataset and the pooled sample (meta-analysis), we assessed the association between FGS-10 and the mean probability of adequacy (MPA) of intake over 8 micronutrients (MPA-8), and the performance of several FGS-10 cutoffs in predicting acceptable (≥0.60) and good (≥0.80) levels of MPA-8. Robustness analyses used the 7 datasets with data on 11 micronutrients (MPA-11). Results FGS-10 ranged from 3.0 to 4.8 across datasets, and the proportion of children/adolescents with acceptable MPA-8 ranged from 8.4% to 74%. Positive and significant associations between FGS-10 and MPA-8 were found in all datasets and the pooled sample. The optimal cutoff varied across datasets from FGS-10 ≥ 4 to FGS-10 ≥ 6. In the pooled sample, FGS-10 ≥ 5 had the highest performances in predicting acceptable and good levels of MPA-8. FGS-10 ≥ 5 was also the best proxy indicator for MPA-11 ≥ 0.80. Conclusions The continuous FGS-10 and dichotomous FGS-10 ≥ 5 may be extended to 4–15-y-old children/adolescents in LMICs. In this population, FGS-10 ≥ 5 can be used as a proxy population indicator for good micronutrient adequacy of diets.

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.