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Conference Paper
Supply and Demand of Agricultural Products and Inflation
How to Address the Acute and Long-Run Problem
Joachim von Braun
March 22-24, 2008
Paper prepared for China Development Forum, Beijing, March 22-24, 2008
Summary

The surge in food prices has become a major political concern because of its role for inflation, its impacts on the whole economy, and because of adverse effects on the wage earning poor and middle class. The price developments can help reduce urban-rural income gaps in the aggregate, but some groups in rural areas lose and others gain. The issue is not only one of too fast increases in prices, but one of risky volatility and of inappropriate policy responses around the world posing threats for free trade and possibly for political stability in some countries. A dual strategy is needed: (1) a science and technology initiative at a national and global scale to address the long-run problem, and (2) a comprehensive social protection and food and nutrition initiative to address the short and medium-run problems. China, which has expanded its investment in agriculture by 23 percent in 2007 , can play an important role in this needed strategy, both domestically, and at a global scale.

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