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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM)

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Bio

James Thurlow is Director of the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, where he oversees the institute’s research program on the major drivers of inclusive agricultural transformation and sustainable development. James’ own research uses economywide models to study the interactions between policies and agrifood systems; structural, climate, and demographic change; and livelihoods, poverty, and food security. He has worked with researchers and governments across Africa and Asia to strengthen foresight capabilities and enhance the coherence of development strategies.

Publications

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Publications

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Brief

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Poverty; Nutrition; Crop Yield; Machine Learning; Climate

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Rwanda: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Rwanda: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Rwanda’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Rwandan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic root and cereal yield volatility risks are the most important for GDP, poverty, and undernourishment outcomes, while external factors like world energy prices pose the most significant risks to high-income households’ consumption. Understanding how possible shocks would im pact various segments of the Rwandan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Warner, James; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Rwanda: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 1. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Risk Assessment; Climate; Shock; Economic Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Agriculture; Crop Yield

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Crop Yield; Poverty; Nutrition; Machine Learning; Risk Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Events

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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August 13, 2024, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How should governments respond to crises? Rapid response using RIAPA modeling system

IFPRI’s foresight modeling systems cover food, land, and water systems across the world’s poorest and most food insecure geographies. Thanks to longstanding investments in these systems, IFPRI is uniquely positioned to provide rapid analysis of the impacts of global or domestic crises on agrifood systems, poverty, and food security at global, regional, national, or subnational […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]

Tracking Global and National Agricultural Transformation
IFPRI Program/Country Event

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July 25, 2024, 9:30 – 10:30 am

Tracking Global and National Agricultural Transformation

Agricultural transformation involves the shift in production and workers from traditional agriculture to more productive activities, both within primary agriculture and across sectors within the broader agrifood system. This evolution enhances productivity and typically reduces poverty, raises incomes, and promotes healthier diets. However, not all countries are experiencing the same pace of agricultural transformation, and […]

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News

August 13, 2024 | In the News

Sudan’s catastrophe: farmers could offer quick post-war recovery, if peace is found

Despite the stark reality, there is a potential path forward for Sudan, believe IFPRI experts.

February 03, 2021 | In the News

Integrated customer experience strategies essential to enterprise growth (Nigeria Communications Week)

Nigeria Communications Week published an article stating that a report from Nigeria’s Statistics Bureau showed that the economy contracted by 6.1% year on year by Quarter 2 of 2020 alone. This decline is Nigeria’s steepest recorded in the past decade. In addition, a report from IFPRI, Coronavirus: Lockdowns across Africa creating major economic loss showed that during the lockdown […]

June 18, 2020 | In the News

COVID-19: For pregnant women, it’s a tougher battle (Daily Trust) 

Daily Trust (Nigeria) reported on COVID-19, nutrition, and pregnancy. Poor diet is a common experience of low-income households during the lockdown. IFPRI said poor households in low and middle-Income Countries, like Nigeria, would have dramatic income effects due to “widespread unemployment resulting from COVID-19 mitigation measures” (see blogpost, COVID-19 lockdowns are imposing substantial economic costs on countries in Africa by James Thurlow).  Also reflecting both […]

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