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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Khalid Siddig

Khalid Siddig is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit and Program Leader for the Sudan Strategy Support Program. He is an agricultural economist with a focus on examining the impacts of potential shocks and the allocation of resources on economic growth, environmental sustainability, and income distribution through the lens of economywide and micro-level tools. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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TOPIC

Climate Change

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s agrifood systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production, as well as the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Climate change also affects all aspects of food value chains, including food processing, storage, transport, and retailing. At the same time, food systems generate one-third of the world’s greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, primarily in developing countries.

These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as livelihoods. Because these impacts are not evenly distributed, climate change also contributes to growing inequalities by gender, socioeconomic status, and other characteristics. For farmers, climate change makes agriculture a riskier source of income, disrupts livelihoods, and contributes to hunger and malnutrition.

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Current research

To help farmers adapt to climate change, increase or stabilize crop yields, increase carbon sinks and lower GHG emissions, IFPRI develops and uses research tools to support our partners in developing adaptation and mitigation strategies. Our global and country-level general and partial equilibrium models provide economywide outlooks or agrifood sector analysis on climate change scenarios and reveal how alternative policies, institutions, and investments to address climate change can benefit agriculture, food and nutrition security, and poor people. Our integrated land use and ecosystem services modeling analysis can explore ways to balance the economic and environmental performance of production across seasons and space, including crop area reallocation, increased fertilizer use efficiency, and others.

IFPRI researchers test a range of innovations for adaptation and mitigation, including through agricultural extension, social protection, clean energy use in irrigation and food value chains, and new tools for farmers to manage risk. This work is complemented by the Living Labs for People approach to low-emission food system development, building on the principles of co-production of knowledge, gender equality and social inclusion, and governance and institutional sustainability to advance existing and novel innovation processes.

IFPRI also works at the local, national, and global levels to help create an enabling environment for public and private investments in adaptation, resilience-building, and equitable low-emissions development. This includes work with communities on locally appropriate adaptations, with governments on strategic planning and investment, and with international organizations setting goals for climate change responses.

Crisis response will become even more important as climate change intensifies. Our work in this area addresses the need for better early warning systems and long-term responses that improve resilience. IFPRI’s work considers the importance of gender in responses to climate change and the need for women’s voices to be included in developing solutions. IFPRI also participates in the CGIAR Research Initiatives on Low-Emission Food Systems (Mitigate+), Gender Equality (HER+), and NEXUS Gains, which examine the linkages between water, energy, food, and ecosystems.

IFPRI’s climate change research is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 1, SDG 2, and SDG 13, and with the CGIAR Impact Areas on Climate Adaptation and Mitigation; Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods, and Jobs; and Gender Equality, Youth, and Social Inclusion.

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topics

Report

IFPRI research and engagement: Climate change and agrifood systems

2023International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)
Details

IFPRI research and engagement: Climate change and agrifood systems

Climate change poses unprecedented challenges to the world’s food systems. Rising temperatures, changing rainfall patterns, and more frequent extreme weather events threaten agricultural production and the biodiversity and ecosystem services that underpin agriculture. Within food systems, climate change affects processing, storage, transport, and retailing of food and affects our food environments. These growing climate risks impact food security, nutrition, and human health, as well as equity and livelihoods, with poor food producers and consumers hit hardest. They make food systems a riskier source of income and reduce the availability of food — worsening poverty and inequity, disrupting livelihoods, and contributing to hunger and malnutrition. At the same time, food systems are failing to provide healthy diets for all, and are generating one-third of human-caused greenhouse gases. Solutions must address this complex nexus of problems. Climate change adaptation and resilience-building efforts for food systems must be accelerated to reverse growing malnutrition, ensure that all people can access healthy diets, and provide sustainable livelihoods. At the same time, efforts to transform food systems work to reduce their environmental footprint. Farmers and small businesses along food value chains in low- and middle-income countries will have to adapt their practices to a climate marked by extreme weather events and changing seasonal patterns in order to meet growing and changing food demand, while also contributing to mitigation. Support for this critical transformation requires not only the development, dissemination, and adoption of appropriate low-emissions, climate-smart technologies and practices, but also a focus on the policies, institutions, governance, and behavior change that can promote sustainable, inclusive food systems.

Year published

2023

Authors

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI)

Citation

International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). 2023. IFPRI research and engagement: Climate change and agrifood systems. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136977

Country/Region

World

Keywords

Agrifood Systems; Climate Change Adaptation; Gender; Healthy Diets; Hunger; Livelihoods; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Peer review status

Non-PR

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136977 Source record

Project

Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR); Transformation Strategies

Record type

Report

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Book

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

2024Tadesse, Getaw; Glatzel, Katrin; Savadogo, Moumini
Details

2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems

The 2024 edition of the Annual Trends and Outlook Report (ATOR) explores the challenges posed by the climate crisis to agrifood systems and the opportunities offered by a transition to a bioeconomy to mitigate and adapt to the adverse impacts of climate change. This ATOR seeks to support the ongoing development and the subsequent implementation of a new 10-year Comprehensive Africa Agriculture Development Programme (CAADP) strategy by the African Union through the renewed and updated post-Malabo CAADP agenda.

Year published

2024

Authors

Tadesse, Getaw; Glatzel, Katrin; Savadogo, Moumini

Citation

Tadesse, Getaw; Glatzel, Katrin; and Savadogo, Moumini, eds. 2024. 2024 annual trends and outlook report: Advancing the climate and bioeconomy agenda in Africa for resilient and sustainable agrifood systems. Kigali, Rwanda; and Washington, DC: AKADEMIYA2063; and International Food Policy Research Institute. https://doi.org/10.54067/9798991636902

Keywords

Africa; Agrifood Systems; Bioeconomics; Climate Change; Resilience; Sustainability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.54067/9798991636902 Source record

Record type

Book

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

2024Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata
Details

Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries

Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) is pivotal in combating the impacts of climate change on global agriculture and food security. It has increasingly gained prominence as an adaptation strategy against the adverse impacts of climate change on agriculture, particularly in South Asia. However, scaling up the adoption of CSA interventions becomes critical, due to predominantly small and marginal nature of landholdings in the region, various institutional and policy constraints, and trade regulations and barriers. Another significant challenge lies in categorizing and prioritizing the multitude of technologies considered to be climate smart. Therefore, this study attempts to explore the different CSA technologies within the socio-economic context of six South Asian countries: Bangladesh, Bhutan, India, Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka, with the main objective of proioritization and scaling-up of these methods. The study begins by compiling an inventory of existing technologies and subsequently prioritizing them by using the World Bank (WB) CSA Technology Index. Secondly, the study tries to address the key challenges and propose policy measures to upscale the adoption of CSA technologies in these countries using participatory research conducted with the key stakeholders in these countries. The participatory research provided valuable insights, revealing critical policy and institutional barriers, and providing a basis for framing strategies and policy solutions to facilitate wider adoption of CSA technologies in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; Pradhan, Mamata

Citation

Kapoor, Shreya; Sma, Abdelkarim; Pathak, Himanshu; and Pradhan, Mamata. 2024. Farming for the future: Prioritization of climate-smart agriculture technologies in SAARC countries. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2285. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute

Country/Region

Bangladesh; Bhutan; India; Nepal; Pakistan; Sri Lanka

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Climate Change; Climate-smart Agriculture; Prioritization; Scaling Up

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

From risk to resilience: How strategic government partnerships can enhance access to insurance-linked credit for smallholders in Zambia
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 07, 2024

From risk to resilience: How strategic government partnerships can enhance access to insurance-linked credit for smallholders in Zambia

By Martina Mascarenhas, Anne G. Timu, and Liangzhi You

The power of bundled solutions

Global Food Policy Report 2024: Leveraging plant-source foods for sustainable healthy diets
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 04, 2024

Global Food Policy Report 2024: Leveraging plant-source foods for sustainable healthy diets

By Erick Boy, Inge Brouwer, Jen Foley, Natalia Palacios, Samuel Scott, and Victor Taleon

Integrating more fruits, vegetables, and other high-quality crops into food systems.

World Cities Day 2024: Building more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient urban food systems
IFPRI Blog
 | 
October 31, 2024

World Cities Day 2024: Building more inclusive, sustainable, and resilient urban food systems

IFPRI researchers on urbanization.

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Events

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

November 21, 2024, 11:00 – 12:00 pm

How can we improve global crop mapping? IFPRI’s Spatial Production Allocation Model (SPAM)

Accessibility to consistent, subnational, spatial information on crops globally will be hugely beneficial to  researchers and policy makers. Researchers need this data to evaluate the benefits and costs of adopting new crop and livestock technologies, estimate the impact of climate change on agriculture calculate yield gaps, and analyze the historical evolution of farming systems. Policymakers, […]

Advancing Sustainable Agri-food Systems for Climate Resilience, Food Security, and Global Collaboration
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

November 12, 2024, 5:00 – 6:30 pm

Advancing Sustainable Agri-food Systems for Climate Resilience, Food Security, and Global Collaboration

The livestream will be available on Tuesday November 12, 2024 at 5:00 – 6:30 pm (America/Sao_Paulo) / 3:00 – 4:30 pm (US/Eastern). Join us for an in-depth discussion on Avanzar2030, an evidence-based initiative that identifies promising innovations in agri-food systems and estimates the costs of implementing them. Launched in response to the 2021 UN Food […]

IFPRI @ 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29)
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

November 11 to 22, 2024

IFPRI @ 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29)

IFPRI is pleased to participate in the 29th UN Climate Change Conference of the Parties (COP29) being held in Baku, Azerbaijan from November 11 to November 22, 2024. COP29 is a pivotal opportunity to accelerate action to tackle the climate crisis. With global temperatures hitting record highs, and extreme weather events affecting people around the globe. […]

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News

September 12, 2024 | In the News

Tale of two villages: In Malawi, farmers point the way as drought drives hunger (WFP/AllAfrica/Relief Web)

The WFP story shared by All Africa and Relief Web quotes Jan Duchoslav and Joachim De Weerdt (IFPRI Malawi) on the food security crisis in the country.

August 29, 2024 | Press Release

Trade can support climate change mitigation and adaptation in Africa’s agricultural sector, new data shows

New report analyzes trade performance amid pressure points from climate change, water use, and carbon emissions, with recommendations for sustainable practices.

December 03, 2023 | Press Release

CGIAR and partners launch Innovation Sprint on Gender and Climate Action

December 3, 2023, Dubai, United Arab Emirates (UAE). CGIAR and partners have committed US$31 million over four years (2023-2027) to ensure that climate innovations in agrifood systems are designed to work for women and rolled out in ways that address underlying gender inequalities. Together with 20 partners, CGIAR launched the AIM for Climate Innovation Sprint on […]

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Our experts

Channing Arndt

Channing Arndt

Senior Director, Transformation Strategies, CGIAR and IFPRI, Development
Strategies and Governance, Foresight and Policy Modeling, Natural Resources and Resilience, Innovation Policy and Scaling

Claudia Ringler

Claudia Ringler

Director, Natural Resources and Resilience (NRR), Natural
Resources and Resilience

James Thurlow

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Francisco Ceballos

Francisco Ceballos

Research Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions, Latin America and the Caribbean

Luis Escalante

Luis Escalante

Associate Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling, Latin America and the Caribbean

Mariam Dawoud

Mariam Dawoud

Program Manager, Development
Strategies and Governance

Patrick Ward

Patrick Ward

Nonresident Fellow, Development
Strategies and Governance

Hagar ElDidi

Hagar ElDidi

Senior Research Analyst, Natural
Resources and Resilience

Mike Murphy

Mike Murphy

Senior Research Analyst, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions