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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Askar Mukashov

Research Fellow

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Bio

Askar Mukashov is a Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is a development economist, and his research focuses on economic uncertainty and development strategies, employing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and various statistical methods, including machine learning. His past work includes evaluating the economywide impacts of diverse policies and economic shocks in several developing countries, as well as making methodological contributions to modeling of uncertainty. Before joining IFPRI, Askar worked at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy, Germany. and the Central Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic. He received his doctoral degree in Quantitative Economics from the University of Kiel, Germany.

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Publications

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Brief

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Uganda’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Uganda economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Uganda. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that domestic production volatility is the primary risk factor affecting GDP and poverty in Uganda, whereas world markets and domestic risks are equally important for household consumption and undernourishment. Individually, the most critical risk factors identified include production volatility in root crops, volatility in foreign capital flows, and volatility in fishery production, with the latter being particularly significant for rural low-income households. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Uganda: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Brief 11. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174150

Country/Region

Uganda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Markets; Domestic Production; Shock; Risk Analysis

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

Achieving development goals is subject to economic uncertainties, yet policymaking rarely accounts for these risks. This Country Brief quantifies the risks facing Ghana’s economy and population, focusing on two primary sources: 1) External risks stemming from shocks in international commodity prices and foreign capital flows and 2) Domestic risks associated with production shocks in volatile sectors of the Ghanaian economy, such as primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation, are often caused by extreme weather. The significance of these risks is assessed based on the range of the shocks’ impacts on four main economic and development indicators: total GDP, private consumption, poverty rate, and prevalence of undernourishment. The analysis uses data mining methods to simultaneously sample many shocks from historical data, con structing a comprehensive set of realistic shock scenarios for Ghana. A country-specific, economywide Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model then simulates the impacts of these shocks on both total and sector-specific economic outcomes, deriving changes in poverty and undernourishment for each shock scenario. Finally, machine learning techniques are applied to obtain metrics for the relative im portance of different risk factors. The results suggest that Ghana’s trade-oriented economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with fluctuations in world prices of key exports—particularly energy and metals—significantly influencing eco nomic activity and the country’s ability to finance imports. Poverty and undernourishment risks present a more complex picture, with a significant difference between urban and rural risk factors. Rural households, which are generally poorer than urban households and constitute the majority of the poor and undernourished population, are more exposed to domestic production volatility factors. Understanding these economic risks is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on potential risk management strategies, such as promoting domestic productivity growth and diversifying economic activity away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Pauw, Karl; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Ghana: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 9. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174149

Country/Region

Ghana

Keywords

Africa; Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Markets; Domestic Production; Shock; Risk Analysis

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks

This study is part of a series of country briefs by IFPRI that leverages economywide models to deliver detailed risk assessments of key economic indicators. This initial analysis evaluates vulnerabilities across economic sectors and key population groups to answer two questions: (1) How vulnerable are Ethiopia’s national economy and population to world market and domestic production shocks? (2) What are the largest risks to Ethiopia’s overall economic performance, private consumption, and reductions in poverty and undernourishment?

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Ethiopia: Systematic analysis of world market and domestic production shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Brief 8. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174156

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Eastern Africa; Domestic Production; Shock; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 19, 2024

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi

By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor Jones

Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

Events

How vulnerable are economies to systemic risks? New approaches to assessing economic and climate-related shocks
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

May 14, 2025, 9:30 – 10:30 am

How vulnerable are economies to systemic risks? New approaches to assessing economic and climate-related shocks

This webinar showcases two innovative approaches to understanding how economic and climate-related risks affect national economies and vulnerable populations across developing regions. The first presentation introduces an economywide modeling approach to assess economic vulnerabilities. It examines how national economies and key population groups are exposed to shocks—such as global market fluctuations or disruptions in domestic […]

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]