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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Samuel Benin

Samuel Benin is the Acting Director for Africa in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. He conducts research on national strategies and public investment for accelerating food systems transformation in Africa and provides analytical support to the African Union’s CAADP Biennial Review.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Askar Mukashov

Associate Research Fellow

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Bio

Askar Mukashov is an Associate Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is a development economist whose research focuses on climate-related economic uncertainty and development strategies, using country-specific computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and various satellite models. His past research included evaluating public investments and policies, analyzing the economywide impact of external shocks such as climate change, and several methodologically focused contributions dedicated to modeling uncertainty. Before recently joining IFPRI, Askar worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He received his doctoral degree in economics from the University of Kiel, Germany.

Publications

RePEc Author Profile

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Publications

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Journal Article

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James
Details

Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi

This paper analyzes the effectiveness of agriculture-led versus non-agriculture-led development strategies under climate-induced economic uncertainty. Utilizing Malawi as a case study, we introduce the application of Stochastic Dominance (SD) analysis, a tool from decision analysis theory, and compare the two strategies in the context of weather/climate-associated economic uncertainty. Our findings suggest that an agriculture-led development strategy consistently surpasses its non-agriculture-led antagonist in poverty and undernourishment outcomes across almost all possible weather/climate scenarios. This underscores that, despite increasing exposure of the entire economy to weather/climate uncertainty, agriculture-led development remains the optimal strategy for Malawi to reduce poverty and undernourishment. The study also endorses the broader use of SD analysis in policy planning studies, promoting its potential to integrate risk and uncertainty into policymaking.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy S.; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thomas, Timothy; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Revisiting development strategy under climate uncertainty: Case study of Malawi. Climatic Change 177: 91. https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Development; Climate Change; Stochastic Models; Poverty; Undernutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1007/s10584-024-03733-2 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Journal Article

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Report

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

2023Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar
Details

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi

Climate change is not projected to materially alter Malawi’s climate profile. Instead, it is likely to exacerbate existing climate vulnerabilities by increasing the frequency and intensity of cyclones, floods, and droughts. This is largely due to increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels. These adverse effects have already started to materialize and are expected to increase substantially over the next decades, particularly if efforts to reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by high emitting countries are insufficient. Climate change is also projected to increase average annual temperatures across the country. Climate change is expected to significantly affect Malawi’s economy, mainly because of its dependence on climate-sensitive economic sectors and its low capacity to take adaptation measures due to preexisting macroeconomic vulnerabilities. Malawi’s sensitivity to climate shocks is underpinned by significant environmental degradation, in particular deforestation, watershed degradation, and poor soil management. The two main impact channels are likely to be agriculture and road infrastructure. In agriculture, the increased uncertainty around future precipitation levels in Malawi will likely result in higher variability in crop yields. Climate change is projected to exacerbate preexisting environmental degradation challenges, including soil erosion. These effects are particularly problematic due to Malawi’s high poverty rate, lack of economic diversification (the agriculture sector represents one-third of the economy and employs over 70 percent of the workforce), and significant dependence on rainfed production (about 80 percent of the population). Climate change is likely to significantly impact Malawi’s road infrastructure, mainly due to increased risk of flooding, which would have broader economic and social knock-on impacts.

Year published

2023

Authors

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; Mukashov, Askar

Citation

Detelinova, Iva; Thomas, Timothy S.; Hammond, Wole; Arndt, Channing; and Mukashov, Askar. 2023. From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Malawi. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute; Cape Town: The African Climate Foundation.

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Southern Africa; Climate Change; Extreme Weather Events; Environmental Degradation; Agriculture; Infrastructure; Poverty; Economic Aspects

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136955 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

Regional development and internal migration aspects of structural transformation: A case study of Senegal

2023Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James
Details

Regional development and internal migration aspects of structural transformation: A case study of Senegal

This study investigates regional development and internal migration dynamics within the context of modern structural transformation in Sub-Saharan Africa. We develop a regionalized Computable General Equilibrium model that incorporates regionalized production, endogenous interregional migration, and distinct migrant households. Using this model, we simulate the structural transformation of Senegal as a case study. Our findings demonstrate that agricultural stagnation, exacerbated by global climate change, underlies the economic underperformance of rural regions and amplifies regional income disparities. Furthermore, our analysis shows that outmigration from stagnating rural provinces to a more developed capital region positively influences overall economic growth and mitigates regional income inequality. Nevertheless, these effects are limited, and a proactive approach to addressing income inequality across the nation’s regions would require supporting agriculture, as it represents a more equitable policy than promoting nonagricultural sectors in both rural and capital regions.

Year published

2023

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; and Thurlow, James. 2023. Regional development and internal migration aspects of structural transformation: A case study of Senegal. Kiel Working Paper no. 2258. Kiel, Germany: Kiel Institute for the World Economy. https://www.ifw-kiel.de/fileadmin/Dateiverwaltung/IfW-Publications/fis-import/KWP_2258.pdf

Country/Region

Senegal

Keywords

Western Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Income; Resettlement; Households; Transformation; Agriculture; Regional Development; Migration; Rural Areas; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]