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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Askar Mukashov

Associate Research Fellow

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Bio

Askar Mukashov is an Associate Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is a development economist whose research focuses on climate-related economic uncertainty and development strategies, using country-specific computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and various satellite models. His past research included evaluating public investments and policies, analyzing the economywide impact of external shocks such as climate change, and several methodologically focused contributions dedicated to modeling uncertainty. Before recently joining IFPRI, Askar worked as a postdoctoral researcher at the Kiel Institute for the World Economy. He received his doctoral degree in economics from the University of Kiel, Germany.

Publications

RePEc Author Profile

CV

Publications

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Brief

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP and urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, particularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Kenya: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Crop Yield; Poverty; Nutrition; Machine Learning; Risk Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current structure of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from copper and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia’s economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167

Country/Region

Zambia

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Exports; Climate; Machine Learning

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Poverty; Nutrition; Crop Yield; Machine Learning; Climate

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 19, 2024

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi

By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor Jones

Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]