IFPRI Insights: July 2022

*|MC_PREVIEW_TEXT|*

View this email in your browser

July 20, 2022

Forward

Country-Level Impacts of High Food, Fuel, and Fertilizer Prices: Global food, fuel, and fertilizer prices have risen rapidly in recent months, largely driven by the impacts of the Russia-Ukraine conflict. With the spike in prices, many developing countries and their development partners are concerned about the implications for economic stability, food security, and poverty.

Supported by USAID, FCDO, and BMGF, IFPRI researchers have been conducting modeling studies to better understand the country-level implications for poverty and food security. The result is a series of briefs spanning 17 countries in Africa and Asia. (Check out the briefs at the top of our Food Prices spotlight page)

Cash Transfers and IPV: Although evidence suggests that cash transfers reduce intimate partner violence (IPV) across a wide range of programs and contexts, there is less clear guidance on how to best design cash transfer programs to maximize reductions in IPV. To help fill that gap, a new IFPRI policy brief summarizes evidence from rigorous studies and existing operational guidance around common decisions made in cash transfer programs. Authors Amber Peterman and Shalini Roy hope this brief will enable implementers to act with what we know, rather than letting gaps in evidence lead to inaction. (Read Brief)

Crop Confusion: A study in Nigeria shows that farmers’ misclassification in crop variety data is mostly driven by misperception, not misreporting. The researchers, Tesfamicheal Wossen, Kibrom Abay, and Tahirou Abdoulaye, suggest that rectifying misperception by addressing agricultural input and seed market imperfections can improve farmers’ investment choices and productivity outcomes. (Read Article)

Brain Food: Changes in anemia and anthropometry during adolescence predict learning outcomes, according to evidence from a longitudinal study in India. Phuong H Nguyen and colleagues found that persistent anemia, thinness, and short stature during adolescence were associated with poor learning. (Read Article)

Measuring Up: While the concept of “building resilience” gains traction among development and humanitarian agencies, proper measurement—necessary to guide and evaluate resilience interventions—has lagged behind. Susana Constenla-Villoslada and coauthors assessed three widely-used resilience measurement methods using nationally representative panel data from Ethiopia and Niger, highlighting areas for improvement. (Read Article)

Trial and Error: Tackling global development challenges typically requires complex interventions, and randomized controlled trials (RCTs) are often employed to evaluate the effectiveness of such interventions. Jef Leroy, Lieven Huybregts, and colleagues provide guidance on how to ensure that RCTs to assess the impact of these complex interventions meet high scientific standards while maximizing the evidence that can be obtained. (Read Article)

Testing Texts: Research in urban Mozambique by Jessica Leight and colleagues shows that women who received a series of text message reminders encouraging them to visit a family planning clinic were slightly more likely to visit a clinic and receive contraception at a clinic. The evidence suggests that text nudges are a promising way to increase the probability of women receiving contraception. (Read Article)

>> Read More Research

Short-Term Actions to Address the Fertilizer Crisis: Fertilizer prices—driven upward by supply disruptions stemming from the Russia-Ukraine conflict—are nearing the peak reached in August 2008 during the last major food price crisis. This is likely to have major impacts on agriculture and food production—and thus, food security—around the world. On the IFPRI blog, Charlotte Hebebrand and David Laborde set forth considerations for policymakers and other stakeholders as they put short-term solutions into place to address the fertilizer crisis.

As of June 8, export restrictions impacted 20% of global trade and threatened more than 50% of fertilizer supply for 24 countries. One of the authors’ six recommendations is to maintain global trade to ensure continuing availability of fertilizers. They suggest governments’ priorities should include removing existing export restrictions and foregoing new ones (finding short-term alternatives if necessary), designating fertilizers as essential goods, and providing specific financial and technical solutions to mitigate potential impacts of sanctions on shippers, traders, and others along value chains. (Read Blog)

Crises and Prices: The ripple effects of the Russia-Ukraine war threaten Kenya’s economy, with the poor bearing the brunt. A recent IFPRI modeling study suggests that higher commodity prices, particularly for fertilizer, will reduce Kenya’s GDP growth and increase its poverty rates, putting an estimated 1.4 million additional people below the poverty line. In an IFPRI blog post, researchers present their findings and explore potential policy options. (Read Blog)

Opportunity Despite Adversity: Wheat supply disruptions and spiking prices related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict could exacerbate food insecurity in Nigeria. At the same time, Nigeria’s capacity to produce other key items—in particular, fertilizer and natural gas—may allow it to take advantage of global market disruptions from the crisis. Bedru Balana and colleagues outline these threats and opportunities on the IFPRI blog. (Read Blog)

Action Needed: The growing food crisis took center stage at the World Trade Organization’s long-awaited 12th Ministerial Conference (MC12) last month. In anticipation of the meeting, Joe Glauber and coauthors discussed the progress they want to see on two pressing agricultural issues: export restrictions and public stockholding programs. (Read Blog)

Harnessing Nature: A blog post from Kris A.G. Wyckhuys highlights the advantages of integrated pest management (IPM), a lower-carbon alternative to synthetic pesticides. IPM can safeguard crop yields from pests and diseases while restoring ecosystem functions and reducing energy consumption, but more funds are warranted to take it to scale. (Read Blog)

Expanding Financial Access: In the Somali region of Ethiopia, host to several refugee camps, less than 8% of residents report having access to financial systems. Expanding financial access has the potential to reduce poverty and improve food security. IFPRI and partners are working to find solutions, including a new pilot program that will test a community referral system to encourage more women and refugees to sign up for and use HelloCash, Alan De Brauw, Daniel O. Gilligan, and Shalini Roy report. (Read Blog)

>> Read More Blogs

One of the important features of what we do in CGIAR NPS is that we have experts on the ground working with the governments, partners, and local research institutes and at the same time drawing on the global experience of our worldwide network.” – Clemens Breisinger, NPS Initiative Leader, MENA Regional Program Leader, and Senior Research Fellow, IFPRI (Event)

For a planet faced with the propensity of hunger triggered by famine, one cannot in any way discontinue the strategic importance of agricultural research. The provision of research-based policy solutions that can sustainably reduce household poverty and address hunger and malnutrition frontally becomes even more important with the challenges posed by climate change.” – Senator Bima Muhammad Enagi, Chairman, Nigeria Senate Committee on Agriculture (Event)

Has the war in Ukraine sparked a global food crisis?: BBC – The Inquiry produced a podcast about how export blockages and bans sparked by the Russia-Ukraine crisis are impacting global food security. IFPRI’s David Laborde commented that “Any new export restrictions can be difficult on developing countries. Still, we are not talking about famine. On a global scale, we were talking about rising food and security and that still can be an impact on millions of people. Next year we could be talking about shortages.”

Falling grain stocks: Will India ban rice exports next?: An article in Al Jazeera discusses the potential effects of India’s export policies amid the current food price crisis. IFPRI’s Paul Dorosh weighed in: “If India imposes serious restrictions on rice exports, it would be pretty devastating, especially for some of the poorest nations that depend on those imports…I’m concerned that could set off a chain reaction with others doing something similar to protect their domestic markets.”

Scary headlines about food shortages are misleading. Here’s why: Fortune Magazine published a myth-busting article in response to news stories about alleged global food “shortages.” IFPRI’s David Laborde was quoted, offering clarity on the situation: “As of today, the world has no global shortage of food, but food is quite expensive and people’s wages have not adjusted yet…The main issue is that we have problems moving this food around, either due to the war or export restrictions. Of course, bad weather and lack of fertilizers could lead to an availability problem next year. But we are not there yet.”