NEW BOOK: Africa’s “youth bulge” presents opportunity to advance rural development

Washington, D.C. – The share of Africa’s young population is growing rapidly, presenting an opportunity to generate inclusive development that will benefit African countries and their populations more broadly, particularly in rural areas. These are some of the key findings of a new book co-authored by Valerie Mueller and James Thurlow, senior researchers at the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

The book, Youth and Jobs in Rural Africa: Beyond Stylized Facts, challenges some of the myths that underpin the prevailing narratives and policy debates about youth employment in rural Africa. The continent’s “youth bulge” is neither the unprecedented population shift prompting concern among some policymakers, nor it’s saving grace some others hope it might be. The book presents case studies examining migration, political participation, and other themes, as well as specific experiences in five countries (Ethiopia, Ghana, Malawi, Senegal, and Tanzania), allowing it to reflect the wide variations observed across and within African countries. The book’s focus on rural Africa—where most of the world’s poor population lives—and the participation of youth in agricultural transformation also helps fill an important gap in current literature.

“Africa’s fast-growing youth population has prompted worries about high unemployment and unrest among some, while others expect young people to provide the digital know-how and entrepreneurial spirit needed to transform Africa,” said James Thurlow. “Our book finds fault in both these narratives, and suggests that rather than focusing on the youth, the best course for African countries is to promote inclusive growth that benefits young and old alike.”

The rising share of working-age young people (15 to 20 years old) in Africa south of the Sahara, and the looming prospect of widespread youth unemployment, social instability and political unrest have created a sense of urgency among some African national governments and the international development community. However, using surveys, population censuses, and other historical data, the book finds that Africa’s youth bulge, that peaked in 2003, is similar to those of other regions that experienced their own youth bulges between 1976 and 1985.  Africa’s early stages of development and levels of youth education also look similar to those of past youth bulges.

Africa’s delayed demographic transition means that it will soon become the main source of growth for the world’s workforce. From 2046 onwards, Africa will be the only region with a growing working age population–a trend that is expected to continue into the next century. Africa’s potential workforce will increase by 21 million people per year during the 2020s, rising to 30 million people during the 2050s, after which it will begin to decline.

The book also challenges the prevailing view that because youth in Africa today are better educated than adults and more familiar with information technology, they will be more apt to adopt advanced farm technologies and practices. In Ethiopia, for example, youth-headed households were less likely to act on advice from extension officers and less likely to use improved seeds and fertilizers. In Malawi, older farmers were found to use more modern inputs than younger ones. And in Ghana, it was level of education rather than age that determined whether farmers embraced new practices.

The book’s findings also suggest that concerns about youth protest may be overblown. “Historical data on local protests and household surveys from 16 African countries show that youth are only slightly more likely to protest than adults, but they are more likely to be driven by concerns about unemployment,” said Valerie Mueller. Being better educated and being poor are strong motivators for protest, regardless of age.

“Our careful look at the evidence reveals that Africa does not have a youth problem. Rather, it faces a broader challenge of promoting inclusive economic transformation,” said Thurlow. “The good news is that Africa’s agricultural sector is already transforming, generating faster economic growth and improved food systems, both of which are key to reducing poverty and driving development across economies.”

The book includes a chapter on policies for youth employment, which lays out a framework for determining whether policies adequately address key barriers in rural areas and applies it to 47 national, rural, and agricultural policies in 13 African countries. The study finds that policies tend to be strongest on labor supply issues, such as self-employment and skills development, but much weaker on labor demand issues, such as stimulating private sector off-farm job creation in the agri-food system—an area that the country case studies show to be particularly important for rural youth.

To harness the advantages of Africa’s youth bulge, policies need to be rooted in evidence rather than in myth, and they need to be broadly inclusive rather than just youth-focused,” said Mueller. “Policies at the national and local levels that help farmers to adopt improved techniques and technologies, establish non-farm enterprises, and connect with growing urban markets can spur inclusive development and improve livelihoods for urban and rural people of all ages.