Daily Update, March 23, 2022 (S&P Global) 

S&P Global published an interview on trade restrictions, and panic buying as key concerns for agriculture markets with senior research fellow Joseph Glauber. Glauber said that the biggest risk that he sees emerging from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is that countries will try to regulate exports to keep prices low internally. “On the other side, you will also be concerned about panic buying–countries that want to buy a lot of months in advance and make sure they lock up supplies. You understand why they would do that, but what it does is it drives up prices, creating panic in the markets.” He added, “As Argentina is one of the leading wheat and corn exporters globally, any possible restriction on exports is worrisome. Argentina has put export bans on wheat many times in the past, and if that happens that would be very, very detrimental,” particularly this time that they have a very large crop. So, the fact that some of that comes to the market would be very important. “Prior to the invasion, I would have said prices are really high and they will likely ease by the time harvest comes in the fall and then in 2023, we should see further weakening in prices. Now, I think that they will come down next year but depending on how this year goes, prices still may remain very high this year and then start to come down, but at a higher level than they’ve been prior to the crisis.” he said. “I keep telling people, we’re not going to run out of wheat. I think there’s plenty of wheat to be consumed around the world, but it’s going to be consumed at a very high price.”