Wall Street Journal published an article stating that from India to Ireland, governments are moving to fill a void from the Black Sea region that could total tens of millions of tons of grain. They are paying farmers to sow more crops and are enlisting railcars and additional containers to move wheat. In the near term, it will be hard for the rest of the world’s farmers to take up the slack, given that Russia and Ukraine combined typically account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. Since the war began, USDA has cut its outlook for the world’s wheat trade in the current season by more than 6 million tons, or 3 percent, as expectations for lower Russian and Ukrainian exports outpace anticipated increases elsewhere. In the near term, it will be hard for the rest of the world’s farmers to take up the slack, given that Russia and Ukraine combined typically account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports. Since the war began, the U.S. Department of Agriculture has cut its outlook for the world’s wheat trade in the current season by more than 6 million tons, or 3 percent, as expectations for lower Russian and Ukrainian exports outpace anticipated increases elsewhere. “It’s not a question of the world running out of grain, it’s a question of how high the price will be that people have to pay for it,” said Joseph Glauber, senior research fellow.
Facing a wheat crisis, countries race to remake an entire market on the fly (Wall Street Journal)
May 02, 2022