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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Samuel Benin

Samuel Benin is the Acting Director for Africa in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. He conducts research on national strategies and public investment for accelerating food systems transformation in Africa and provides analytical support to the African Union’s CAADP Biennial Review.

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

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Projects

Agrifood system (AFS) measurement

Agrifood systems (AFS) play a potentially central role in driving economic growth and transformation in low- and middle-income countries.

AFS can encompass the value added in not just primary agriculture but all agrifood-related processing, trade, and transport sectors up and downstream. Expansion of the AFS’s off-farm components is seen as central to the process of agricultural transformation and is strongly associated with economic development.

This page serves as a repository and information hub for materials related to agrifood system measurement, including agrifood system GDP and employment.

Project duration: 2017-Ongoing

Contact

James Thurlow

Donors and funders

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Nepal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

2023Xinshen Diao; Ellis, Mia; Fang, Peixun; Pauw, Karl; Pradesha, Angga; Thurlow, James
Details

Nepal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Nepal experienced annual economic growth of 5.0 percent between 2009 and 2019 (World Bank 2023b). Thanks to a relatively slow population growth rate of 1.4 percent, the living standards of most Nepalis improved during this period; this allowed Nepal to graduate in 2019 from a low-income country to a lower-middle-income country. Nepal’s economy, however, was severely affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, with GDP declining by 2.4 percent in 2020 and growing only modestly in 2021. Fortunately, the country was largely spared the adverse effects of global commodity market disruptions arising from the Russia-Ukraine war that started in 2022 and from the 2023 global recession (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Nepal’s GDP growth is now projected to reach 5.1 percent in 2023 and 4.9 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023a); this suggests that the economy is resuming its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. Agriculture remains an important sector, accounting for 25 percent of Nepal’s GDP and 30 percent of its jobs. In this brief, we further unpack Nepal’s historical and projected economic growth trajectory in order to better understand the role of agriculture, and of the broader agrifood system (AFS), in the performance and transformation of its economy.

Year published

2023

Authors

Xinshen Diao; Ellis, Mia; Fang, Peixun; Pauw, Karl; Pradesha, Angga; Thurlow, James

Citation

Xinshen Diao; Ellis, Mia; Fang, Peixun; Pauw, Karl; Pradesha, Angga; and Thurlow, James. 2023. Nepal’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation. Agrifood System Diagnostics Country Series 12. https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136799

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Southern Asia; Asia; Agrifood Systems; Value Chains; Markets; Agriculture; Labour Productivity; Off-farm Employment; Poverty; Diet Quality; Jobs; Development; Gross National Product

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136799 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Tanzania’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

2023Benfica, Rui; Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James; Ellis, Mia
Details

Tanzania’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Tanzania experienced strong annual economic growth of 6.2 percent between 2009 and 2019 (NBS 2020). Despite the country’s relatively less restrictive domestic COVID-19 measures, the adverse effects of the global commodity market disruptions during the pandemic led to a slowdown in GDP growth to 4.8 percent in 2020 and 4.9 percent in 2021 (NBS 2021). Growth is expected to reach 5.3 percent in 2023 and 6.1 percent in 2024 (World Bank 2023), suggesting that Tanzania is returning to its pre-pandemic growth trajectory. While the economy has been going through a process of structural transformation with rapid growth, agriculture continues to play an important role in both output and employment, accounting for about 30 percent of total GDP and 70 percent of employment in 2019. The agriculture sector performed well over the pre-pandemic decade, with agricultural growth accelerating from 3.8 percent per year in the 2009–2014 period to 5 percent in the 2014–2019 period (NBS 2020). The agriculture sector has also been playing an important role in weathering the global commodity market shocks in 2022 and 2023, thanks to some export crops that benefit from the negative terms of trade shock (Diao and Thurlow 2023). In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Tanzania.

Year published

2023

Authors

Benfica, Rui; Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James; Ellis, Mia

Citation

Benfica, Rui; Diao, Xinshen; Pauw, Karl; Randriamamonjy, Josee; Thurlow, James; and Ellis, Mia. 2023. Tanzania’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation. Agrifood System Diagnostics Country Series 19. https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136787

Keywords

Tanzania; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Agrifood Systems; Value Chains; Markets; Agriculture; Labour Productivity; Off-farm Employment; Poverty; Diet Quality; Jobs; Development; Gross National Product; Maize; Rice; Oilseeds; Livestock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136787 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Zambia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

2023Diao, Xinshen; Ellis, Mia; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James
Details

Zambia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation

Zambia experienced modest economic growth of 4.8 percent per year between 2010 and 2019 (ZamStats 2020). Most growth occurred in the earlier part of the decade. After world commodity prices fell in 2014, the GDP growth rate slowed to an annual rate of 3.1 percent (for 2014–2019), which is below the country’s population growth rate. The global COVID-19 pandemic further damaged the economy and GDP declined by 2.8 percent in 2020. The global commodity market disruptions related to the Russia Ukraine war that started in 2022 and the global recession in 2023 are expected to further harm Zambia’s economy (Arndt et al. 2023; Diao and Thurlow 2023). Zambia’s projected GDP growth rate is 3.9 percent for 2023 and 4.1 percent for 2024 (World Bank 2023). Its economy relies heavily on exports of copper and other minerals. While mining is a large sector in total GDP, it creates few jobs in the country. Agriculture remains important in employment, accounting for near 40 percent of jobs. In this brief, we unpack the historical and projected economic growth trajectory further to better understand the role of agriculture as well as the broader agrifood system (AFS) in the performance and transformation of the economy of Zambia.

Year published

2023

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Ellis, Mia; Pauw, Karl; Thurlow, James

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Ellis, Mia; Pauw, Karl; and Thurlow, James. 2023. Zambia’s agrifood system structure and drivers of transformation. Agrifood System Diagnostics Country Series 21. https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136797

Country/Region

Zambia

Keywords

Southern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Africa; Eastern Africa; Agrifood Systems; Value Chains; Markets; Agriculture; Labour Productivity; Off-farm Employment; Poverty; Diet Quality; Jobs; Development; Gross National Product; Maize; Cattle; Sugarcane; Cereals

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.136797 Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Donors

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

Team members

James Thurlow

James Thurlow

Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling (FPM), Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Xinshen Diao

Xinshen Diao

Deputy Division Director, Foresight and Policy Modeling, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Karl Pauw

Karl Pauw

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Other

Related Projects

Topics/Countries

Related links

External Resources

External events

Beyond Agriculture: Measuring Agri-Food System GDP and Employment

Transformation of the agri-food system is a cornerstone of many governments’ national development plans and is key to the One GGIAR goals of contributing to more inclusive agricultural growth, healthier diets, and more sustainable production systems. Agri-food systems remain crucial for the livelihoods and wellbeing of most of the world’s poor, and successful agricultural transformation is still strongly associated with long-term economic development. But adopting an agri-food system perspective is not trivial – it requires us to also look beyond agriculture when prioritizing innovations and policies and tracking outcomes. The agri-food system encompasses not only the primary agricultural sector, but also all upstream and downstream agriculture-related activities. Measuring transformation of the agri-food system therefore requires economywide data and innovative metrics.