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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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researcher spotlight

Khalid Siddig

Khalid Siddig is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit and Program Leader for the Sudan Strategy Support Program. He is an agricultural economist with a focus on examining the impacts of potential shocks and the allocation of resources on economic growth, environmental sustainability, and income distribution through the lens of economywide and micro-level tools. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

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Projects

The International Model for Policy Analysis of Agricultural Commodities and Trade (IMPACT) was developed in the early 1990s to explore the long term challenges facing policymakers in reducing hunger and poverty in a sustainable fashion. The IMPACT model has been expanded and improved repeatedly to respond to increasingly complex policy questions and the state-of-the-art of modeling. See documentation of most recent update.

Currently, IMPACT is a network of linked economic, water, and crop models. At its core is a partial equilibrium multi-market economic model, which simulates national and international agricultural markets. The links to water and crop models support the integrated analysis of changing environmental, biophysical, and socioeconomic trends, allowing for in-depth analysis on a variety of critical issues of interest to policymakers at national, regional, and global levels.

Many publications and other resources based on IMPACT analyses are available below. Also available is an online visualization tool providing key results from recent IMPACT analysis in an easy-to-access format.

For more information contact: IFPRI IMPACT model team.

Project duration: 2009 – ongoing

Contact

Keith Wiebe

Donors and funders

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)

CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)

Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation

United States Agency for International Development (USAID)

United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)

Wellcome Trust

Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Project partners

CGIAR Centers

Oxford University

Commonwealth Scientific And Industrial Research Organisation (CSIRO)

Potsdam Institute For Climate Impact Research

Purdue University

Wageningen University

International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

European Commission’s Joint Research Center

University of Florida

Columbia University

Publications

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Working Paper

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

2024Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.
Details

Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi

This paper uses machine learning, simulation, and data mining methods to develop Systematic Risk Profiles of three developing economies: Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. We focus on three exogenous shocks with implications for economic performance: world market prices, capital flows, and climate-driven sectoral productivity. In these and other developing countries, recent decades have been characterized by increased risks associated with all these factors, and there is a demand for instruments that can help to disentangle them. For each country, we utilize historical data to develop multi-variate distributions of shocks. We then sample from these distributions to obtain a series of shock vectors, which we label economic uncertainty scenarios. These scenarios are then entered into economywide computable general equilibrium (CGE) simulation models for the three countries, which allow us to quantify the impact of increased uncertainty on major economic indicators. Finally, we utilize importance metrics from the random forest machine learning algorithm and relative importance metrics from multiple linear regression models to quantify the importance of country-specific risk factors for country performance. We find that Malawi and Rwanda are more vulnerable to sectoral productivity shocks, and Kenya is more exposed to external risks. These findings suggest that a country’s level of development and integration into the global economy are key driving forces defining their risk profiles. The methodology of Systematic Risk Profiling can be applied to many other countries, delineating country-specific risks and vulnerabilities.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; Thomas, Timothy S.

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Robinson, Sherman; Thurlow, James; Arndt, Channing; and Thomas, Timothy S. 2024. Systematic risk profiling: A novel approach with applications to Kenya, Rwanda, and Malawi. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2286. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Kenya; Rwanda; Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Climate; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Risk; Uncertainty

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Working Paper

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Book Chapter

Dietary quality and nutrition: Past progress, current and future challenges

2024Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek D.; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin
Details

Dietary quality and nutrition: Past progress, current and future challenges

Prior to the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020 and the military coup in 2021, Myanmar was experiencing a period of rapid economic growth and transformation in the wake of economic and political liberalization. Between 2005 and 2017, average annual growth in real GDP per capita was 7.8 percent, making Myanmar the fastest growing economy among the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) countries. Strong growth was accompanied by a halving of the national poverty rate between 2005 and 2017 from 48.2 to 24.8 percent (CSO, UNDP, and World Bank 2019). COVID19 and the economic and political shocks affecting the country since 2021 have led to an economic contraction: 2021 saw an 18 percent drop in real GDP per capita; in 2022, real GDP per capita was estimated to be 15 percent lower than in 2019 (World Bank 2022). The impacts on poverty were even more dire. A high-frequency panel phone survey of mothers and young children in urban Yangon and the rural Dry Zone revealed incomes collapsing during the COVID-19 lockdowns and further income losses in the wake of the February 2021 military takeover (Headey et al. 2022). Prices rose dramatically, with the consumer price index rising by 20 percent between July 2021 and July 2022 (MOPF 2022), while food prices rose by 34 percent over the same period and by about 50 percent between December 2021 and December 2022. Nationally, a variety of different poverty indicators suggest that between 40 and 50 percent of the population was living in poverty in 2022 —poverty rates similar to those found between 2005 and 2010.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek D.; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Tauseef, Salauddin

Citation

Mahrt, Kristi; Headey, Derek; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; and Tauseef, Salauddin. 2024. Dietary quality and nutrition: Past progress, current and future challenges. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities, Duncan Boughton, Ben Belton, Isabel Lambrecht, and Bart Minten, eds. Chapter 4, Pp. 79-120. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155148

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

Asia; South-eastern Asia; Agrifood Systems; Development; Diet Quality; Economic Shock; Governance; Nutrition

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

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Book Chapter

Food processing: A stalled transformation

2024Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye
Details

Food processing: A stalled transformation

Processed foods account for 80 percent of global food sales. Such foods are becoming increasingly important in low- and middle-income countries, driven by growing demand for convenient and ready-to-eat products. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the state and evolution of food processing in Myanmar and to assess the effect of the crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on the different segments—production, trade, and consumption—of the sector. This assessment is important given the possible implications of changes in food processing for agriculture, employment opportunities in the food processing industry and food service sector, and nutritional outcomes.

Year published

2024

Authors

Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye

Citation

Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; and Zone, Phoo Pye. 2024. Food processing: A stalled transformation. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities. Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; and Minten, Bart (Eds.). Chapter 13, Pp. 341-372. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155155

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Food Processing; Shock; Agro-industrial Sector; Markets; Trade; Processed Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 16, 2021

$15.2 billion in research and innovation investments can put global climate and hunger goals within reach

By Uma Lele and Mark Rosegrant

A new report shows how targeted spending can have significant global benefits.

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 15, 2020

COVID-19-related trade restrictions on rice and wheat could drive up prices and increase hunger

By Timothy Sulser and Shahnila Dunston

Modeling suggests export bans intended to buttress domestic food supplies could have wide impacts.

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 07, 2020

Knowledge for a sustainable food future: New foresight tool examines impact of agricultural investments

By Sara Gustafson

How can we feed 10 billion people by 2050? How much and in what ways will climate change impact global food production? What can be done to ensure that the world’s agriculture and food systems remain sustainable in both the short and the long term? To answer these and other critical questions, researchers and development […]

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Events

Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

December 18, 2019, 10:00 – 11:00 am

Launching the Global Foresight for Food and Agriculture Tool

Join the Food Security Portal (FSP), International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), and CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM) in the launch of the global foresight tool Impacts of Alternative Investment Scenarios. The tool was recently developed by IFPRI’s IMPACT model team and the FSP. The Global Foresight tool provides researchers and […]

2015 Global Landscapes Forum
IFPRI at External Event

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December 5 to 7, 2015

2015 Global Landscapes Forum

The 2015 GLF brings together individuals and organizations that have an impact on land use.

Climate Change & Food Security
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

November 10, 2015, 5:15 – 6:45 pm

Climate Change & Food Security

Challenges and options at global and national scales. Video now available from the Nov 10 Policy Seminar.

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Donors

CGIAR Research Program on Policies, Institutions, and Markets (PIM)
CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS)
Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation
United States Agency for International Development (USAID)
United States Department of Agriculture (USDA)
Wellcome Trust
Food and Agricultural Organization of the United Nations (FAO)

Team members

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Keith Wiebe

Keith Wiebe

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Timothy Thomas

Timothy Thomas

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling, Latin America and the Caribbean

Other

Related Projects

Topics/Countries

Related links