Latest IFPRI publications

A conceptual framework of living labs for people for sustainable food systems

Innovation spaces are often dominated by linear, top-down approaches, with the transfer of technology being seen as the solution to many problems rather than trying to understand which innovation processes people are engaging with themselves. In other words, barriers to progress are typically viewed as issues of technology adoption, not as part of the innovation process itself. This study contributes to changing the paradigm by proposing a living lab approach, which considers innovation as an adaptive process where stakeholders co-produce knowledge and collaborate based on inclusivity and empowerment. Our specific concept for this approach is called a Living Lab for People (LL4P). This conceptual paper outlines a framework to guide the development of a LL4P that remains flexible to be adapted for specific sites. While we seek to identify common denominators, we recognize the necessity for such a framework to remain open enough to be adaptable for varied contexts. Consequently, the framework draws on the living lab literature but tailors existing approaches for sustainable food system transformation and puts people (men, women, and marginalized groups among key food system actors) at the center of innovation processes with a clear intention to address power and social inequity. We draw on specific cases in China, Colombia, Kenya and Vietnam as learning grounds for formulating LL4Ps through locally led innovation processes. Based on our learnings and consultations, we define a LL4P as an inclusive and diverse space for people to advance their socio-technical innovation processes and associated modes of governance within a facilitated organizational structure. The principles of LL4Ps include co-production, gender equality and social inclusion, governance and institutional sustainability to advance existing and novel innovation processes. The practical experiences from applying this framework in the four case studies indicate alternative pathways for transforming the food system toward a sustainable and socially equitable trajectory through the establishment of a LL4P.

Ecosystem services may provide large economic values in Kenya and Vietnam: A value transfer application based on results from a systematic literature review

This study focuses on the valuation of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam, two countries that have received much attention from the international development community for their biodiversity significance, opportunities for scaling, climate and poverty challenges, and political will. Using The Economics of Ecosystems and Biodiversity (TEEB) framework and the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (MEA), this study estimates per hectare values of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam based on a systematic literature review of studies on the values of ecosystem services in both countries. Provisioning services, such as medicines, timber, and non-timber forest products were better studied than regulating, supporting and cultural ecosystem services, underscoring the need for further research to better estimate the values of non-tangible services which would improve the estimation of total value of ecosystem services in Kenya and Vietnam. To complement the national level analysis, we selected forest biomes to conduct a value transfer analysis. Forests provide ecosystem service benefits worth $25.78 billion for Kenya and $35.6 billion in Vietnam in 2022 USD. In comparison, the agricultural sector contributed $48.50 billion to Vietnam’s GDP and $24.10 billon to Kenya’s GDP in 2021. The per hectare values for ecosystem services are used in a value transfer analysis to estimate the total value of forest ecosystem services in Vietnam and Kenya. The average per hectare value of ecosystem services provided by forests in Kenya is $5,718.50 ha−1 yr−1 estimated within a range spanning $1,609.44 to $15,606.62 ha−1 yr−1 , while Vietnam’s forests demonstrate an average value of $3,650.20 ha−1 yr−1 , with a range of $84.93 to $8,978.16 ha−1 yr−1 . We project the loss of forests into 2050 and estimate the annual economic loss of ecosystem services at $48.08 million for Kenya and $76.29 million for Vietnam, respectively, if deforestation and forest degradation continue at the current rates. Our approach presents a comprehensive overview of diverse ecosystem services, equipping policymakers with a nuanced comprehension of ecosystems’ inherent value. By consolidating values from the literature into a national-level estimate, we provide compelling evidence at a broader scale for informed decision-making. Despite the well-known limitations of value transfer method and with caveats, the values presented in our paper can provide a guiding reference for incorporating these estimations into broader policymaking endeavors.

Challenges and opportunities in implementing video-based extension approaches targeting women farmers: An implementer’s perspective

Agricultural extension services play an important role in agricultural development. Timely and reliable information services are key to improving farmers’ knowledge of strategies to increase agricultural productivity, assisting them in accessing inputs and credit, providing early warning against pests and other shocks, and offering them critical advice on climate action. However, equitable access to knowledge, information, and technology remains challeng ing in most countries. This inequity is even more pronounced among farmers from marginalized groups, including women farmers, resulting in their limited access to climate resilience-enhancing technologies and practices. This note summarizes findings from implementers of participatory video-based extension interventions in India, Kenya, and Uganda. The findings suggest that videos targeting women farmers can reach them effectively. Still, participa tory video-based extension should be accompanied by group discussions, providing complementary inputs, and dismantling other barriers that impede women’s agency and achievements in agriculture.

Aflatoxin contamination of maize flour in Kenya: Results from multi-city, multi-round surveillance

This research was undertaken to characterise the level and distribution of aflatoxin contamination of maize flour, a key food safety concern in Kenya. More than 1,200 samples of maize flour were collected and analyzed over the course of one year, allowing a robust characterization of relative risk across geography and product type. Informally milled flour was found to be significantly more contaminated than branded flour, a result attributable to the refining process applied to this flour. The results of this study can be used to inform messaging to consumers about the relative riskiness of informally versus formally milled flour, and for geographical targeting of resources for aflatoxin mitigation.

Evaluating the gendered credit constraints and uptake of an insurance-linked credit product

Smallholder farmers in low- and medium-income countries lack sufficient access to agricultural production credit that can help them adopt new technologies and improve their farm production. Compared to men, women smallholder farmers face additional social, and economic barriers that further limit their credit access. Bundling agricultural credit with insurance, or risk contingent credit (RCC), provides a mechanism for addressing some of the credit access constraints and reducing credit rationing among smallholder farmers. In this paper, we evaluate the gendered determinants of credit rationing and the gender differences of the effects of RCC innovation on credit uptake decisions. We use three-wave panel data from a randomized control trial (RCT) in Kenya. We find that female-headed households (FHH) are significantly more risk rationed (or demand-side credit constrained) compared to male-headed households (MHH), however, the gender of the household head does not significantly determine the household quantity rationing status (supply-side constrained). We also find that farmers randomly assigned to be offered the RCC are up to four percent more likely to take up credit. RCC’s impacts on credit uptake decisions do not vary with the gender of the household head, however, RCC has a differential positive and significant impact on the credit uptake decisions of farmers that were previously (at baseline) risk rationed. Based on these findings, we suggest that policies should focus on reducing gendered demand-side barriers to credit access, especially among poorer women households. Climate financing innovations such as RCC should also be designed and delivered in a gender-inclusive manner to accommodate women farmers who face time, liquidity, and financial literacy barriers.

Dairy consumption and household diet quality in East Africa: Evidence from survey-based simulation models

Dairy foods are an important source of essential macro- and micronutrients in household diets, and their consumption is associated with reduced malnutrition, especially among young children. Low dairy consumption in many developing countries is a justification for programs that promote dairy livestock ownership, help develop dairy value chains, or stimulate dairy demand. While several studies confirm the beneficial effects of such dairy-specific interventions on nutritional outcomes, the purpose in this study is to consider more broadly the contribution of dairy to overall diet quality. Our assessment of consumer preferences for dairy, coupled with simulations of consumption responses to dairy price and household income changes, provide quantitative evidence that can inform policymakers about the possible effects of public policies on dairy consumption and diet quality. While our analysis is based on data from Kenya and Uganda, both countries with established dairy sectors, our findings are relevant for other East African countries with similar dietary patterns and emergent dairy sectors.

Insights from farmers and extension agents: Perceptions of a participatory video intervention in India, Kenya, and Uganda

Basic human values drive food choice decision-making in different food environments of Kenya and Tanzania

Increased access to a variety of foods in low-and-middle-income countries (LMICs) has led to greater autonomy in food choice decision-making. Autonomy allows individuals to make decisions through negotiation of considerations in ways that are consistent with basic values. The aim of this study was to identify and describe how basic human values drive food choice in two diverse populations with transitioning food environments living in the neighboring East African countries of Kenya and Tanzania. Secondary data analysis was carried out on focus group discussions conducted with men and women in Kenya (n = 28) and Tanzania (n = 28) as part of prior studies on food choice. A priori coding based on Schwartz’s theory of basic human values was conducted, followed by a narrative comparative analysis, which included review by original principal investigators. Values of conservation (security, conformity, tradition), openness to change (self-directed thought and action, stimulation, indulgence), self-enhancement (achievement, power, face), and self-transcendence (benevolence-dependability and -caring) were prominent drivers of food choice in both settings. Participants described how values were negotiated and highlighted existing tensions. For example, the value of tradition was cited as important in both settings but changing food contexts (e.g., new foods, diverse neighborhoods) increased prioritization of values like stimulation, indulgence, and self-directed thought and action. The application of a basic values framework was useful for understanding food choice in both settings. A focused understanding of how values drive food choice decision-making in the context of changing food availability in LMICs is essential for the promotion of sustainable healthy diets.

Potential effectiveness of integrating human milk banking and lactation support on neonatal outcomes at Pumwani Maternity Hospital, Kenya

We assessed the potential effectiveness of human milk banking and lactation support on provision of human milk to neonates admitted in the newborn unit (NBU) at Pumwani Maternity Hospital, Kenya. This pre–post intervention study collected data from mothers/caregivers and their vulnerable neonates or term babies who lacked sufficient mother’s milk for several reasons admitted in the NBU. The intervention included establishing a human milk bank and strengthening lactation support. Preintervention data were collected between 5 October 2018 and 11 November 2018, whereas postintervention data were collected between 4 September 2019 and 6 October 2019. Propensity score-matched analysis was performed to assess the effect of the intervention on exclusive use of human milk, use of human milk as the first feed, feeding intolerance and duration of NBU stay. The surveys included 123 and 116 newborns at preintervention and postintervention, respectively, with 160 newborns (80 in each group) being included in propensity score matched analysis. The proportion of neonates who exclusively used human milk during NBU stay increased from 41.3% preintervention to 63.8% postintervention (adjusted odds ratio [OR]: 2.68; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.31, 5.53) and those whose first feed was human milk increased from 55.0% preintervention to 83.3% postintervention (adjusted OR: 5.09; 95% CI: 2.18, 11.88). The mean duration of NBU stay was 27% (95% CI: 5.8%, 44.0%) lower in the postintervention group than in the preintervention group. The intervention did not affect feeding intolerance. Integrating human milk banking and lactation support may improve exclusive use of human milk among vulnerable neonates in a resource limited setting.

Adaptation finance

Key messages ▶ For the five years following the Paris Agreement’s entry into force (2017–2021), finance for adaptation from international public sources to developing countries remained at or below US$25 billion per year, or approximately US$3 per person per year. In 2021, there was a 15 per cent decrease from 2020 levels, down to US$21 billion. ▶ In the same five-year period, the disbursement ratio for adaptation finance (at 66 per cent) was lower than for development finance overall (at 98 per cent): this indicates specific barriers to adaptation that hinder the implementation of projects in developing countries. ● These barriers include low grant-to-loan ratios, failure to consider local issues when planning and designing projects, limited technical capacity among decision makers, and misalignment between the duration of the approval and disbursement process and the shorter-term mandates of national and local governments. ▶ In the 2017–2021 period, less than 17 per cent of commitments were dedicated to projects with a specific focus on local communities. While this is an increase from previous levels, these low levels exist despite increasing understanding of the importance of local communities’ agency and involvement in adaptation projects. ▶ In the same period, the share of grants as a proportion of the total finance for adaptation for least developed countries (LDCs) (at 52 per cent) was substantially higher than that of non-LDCs (26 per cent). Small island developing States (SIDS) have an even higher share of grants in their total commitments (67 per cent). ● This demonstrates that financial institutions are placing a higher emphasis on providing grant-based funding to LDCs and SIDS. This reflects concerns that traditional debt instruments (loans) are a less equitable option for adaptation finance in the most vulnerable countries, due to current debt vulnerabilities and limited fiscal capacity. ▶ Approximately a quarter of the finance simultaneously addressing both adaptation and mitigation (cross-cutting finance) was committed for general environment protection, indicating the potentially synergetic role of nature-based solutions for both adaptation and mitigation. ▶ Domestic expenditure and private finance are identified as vitally important sources of adaptation finance, but quantitative estimates continue to be unavailable. However, neither domestic expenditures nor private finance flows are likely to bridge the adaptation finance gap alone, especially in low-income countries (including the LDCs and SIDS), and there are important equity issues in using domestic budgets to address the finance gap in these countries.

The modelled costs of adaptation

Key messages ▶ The Adaptation Finance Gap (AFG) Update 2023 has undertaken an updated modelling assessment of the cost of adaptation for developing countries. This analysis has used a suite of global sector assessment models, complemented by new analysis in additional sectors. ▶ The update analysis estimates the plausible central costs of adaptation at approximately US$240 billion per year this decade (up to 2030), with a range of US$130–415 billion per year. The central estimate is equivalent to 0.56 per cent of the gross domestic product (GDP) (2021) for all developing countries (or approximately US$33 per capita/per year). ▶ The highest adaptation costs are for river flood protection, infrastructure and coastal protection, and for the regions of East Asia and the Pacific and Latin America and the Caribbean. ▶ The highest absolute costs are for the upper- and lower-middle-income countries. However, when expressed as a percentage of GDP, adaptation costs are much higher for low-income countries (3.5 per cent) than for lower-middle-income (0.7 per cent) and upper-middle-income (0.5 per cent) countries. ▶ The costs for lower-income and lower-middle-income countries are estimated at US$76 billion per year this decade: the costs for small island developing States (SIDS) alone are estimated at US$4.7 billion per year (0.7 per cent of their GDP) and for least developed countries (LDCs) at US$25 billion per year (2 per cent of their GDP). ▶ The modelled costs of adaptation are estimated to increase significantly by 2050, especially for high-warming scenarios. ▶ These updated costs show a significant increase compared to previous similar studies. This not only reflects the more negative impacts of climate change reported in the literature (for the sectors previously modelled), but also a wider range of risks and sectors.

Examining the gender digital divide: A case study from rural Kenya

Worldwide, cell phones are used by 5.4 billion people. They are becoming increasingly prevalent in the rural areas of low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), providing smallholder farmers with access to agricultural markets. If they reduce information asymmetries between women and men farmers, they can also contribute to closing the gender gap in agricultural productivity. So far, however, digital innovations have had limited success in transforming agricultural systems. This may be due, in part, to the gender gap in cell-phone use. Rural women in LMICs—particularly those with low incomes, low literacy levels, or disabilities—are less likely than rural men to have access to cell phones, the Internet, digital currency, or other digital services. This policy note summarizes research intended to shed light on the impact of cell-phone ownership and use on the gender gap in agricultural productivity in LMICs.

Gendered information channels for climate-smart agriculture practices: Evidence from India, Kenya, and Uganda

Lack of access to information is an important barrier affecting women farmers’ adoption of climate-smart agri culture (CSA) practices and technologies. To overcome this barrier, the use of information and communication technologies is increasingly being promoted. However, digital tools might widen, rather than reduce, gendered information gaps given women’s lower use of mobile phones and mobile Internet as compared to men in sub Saharan African and South Asia. This policy note summarizes data on information channels that women and men farmers use for CSA practices in Gujarat, India, parts of Kenya, and central Uganda. The results can be used by governments, nongovernmental organizations, and other actor groups interested in ensuring equity in access to information on CSA practices in low- and middle-income countries.

Do climate-smart agricultural practices support adaptation, mitigation and productivity? A review of CSA practices used in participatory video interventions in India, Kenya, and Uganda

Climate change poses a threat to smallholder farmers worldwide, impacting livelihoods and agricultural pro duction. At the same time, agrifood systems account for about one-third of all greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Climate-smart agriculture (CSA) offers synergistic practices that boost productivity, aid farmers in adapting to cli mate change, and have the potential to mitigate GHG emissions. This note reviews the extent to which a set of practices identified by smallholder farmers in India, Kenya, and Uganda for inclusion in a participatory video-based extension intervention meet the CSA criteria. The findings suggest that the practices hold triple-win potential but often several need to be applied as a package; they also need to be adapted to local conditions.

Qualitative fieldwork to identify CSA practices preferred by women farmers in India, Kenya, and Uganda

Promoting the adoption of climate-smart agricultural (CSA) practices is an important step toward enhancing farmer resilience to climate change. Given the differences in the resilience capacities, operating space, and response options of men and women farmers, it is imperative to understand the gendered preferences for and constraints to their adoption of CSA practices. This policy brief summarizes qualitative research conducted in rural India, Kenya, and Uganda to identify CSA practices preferred by women and men farmers. The findings highlight the need for gender-responsive finance models and information channels to ensure that support to climate change adaptation does not further widen the gender gap in agricultural resources, agency, and achievement.

From climate risk to resilience: Unpacking the economic impacts of climate change in Kenya

Substantial model variability exists regarding the likely meteorological impact of climate change on Kenya, particularly with respect to future precipitation levels. Significant regional differences are expected, largely due to Kenya’s diverse climate profile. Overall, temperatures are projected to increase while future precipitation levels are highly uncertain. Climate change is expected to significantly affect coastal areas, including because of sea level rise risks, stronger winds, and an overall warmer and drier climate. This will likely harm important ecosystems, including wetlands, mangroves, and coral reefs. Some models project that arid and semi-arid areas may become drier and hotter, which would exacerbate preexisting water scarcity and agricultural challenges for the already vulnerable communities living there. That said, these projections are not corroborated by all models. The climate change impact on other areas, particularly south and west of Mount Kenya, could generally be positive, as it would provide even better conditions for agriculture. The key climate change risk for Kenya is from extreme events, in particular droughts and floods. The frequency and intensity of such events is likely to increase because of climate change. They also often lead to adverse knock-on effects, such as soil erosion, land degradation, and pest breakouts. Overall, Kenya’s updated Nationally Determined Contribution (NDC) (2020) estimates that between 2010 and 2020, adverse climate change-related events led to annual socioeconomic losses of 3–5 percent of total gross domestic product (GDP).