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High Food/Fertilizer Prices and War in Ukraine: With global prices of food and fertilizers already reaching worrying highs, the continuing impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine raise serious concerns for food security, both in the short and long term. IFPRI is following these developments closely and exploring policy responses.
We are providing timely, evidence-based analyses on the topic of high food/fertilizer prices and the war in Ukraine in a special blog series curated by IFPRI Senior Research Fellows Joseph Glauber and David Laborde. Blog posts so far have focused on global threats to food security, potential steps for mitigation, international food price volatility, country-level impacts in Egypt, Yemen, and Sudan, and regional impacts for West Africa.
IFPRI also launched a new Policy Seminar series about food and fertilizer price trends, at which experts have provided insights on global commodity price trends and country-level retail food prices. The next event on May 4th will discuss developments in the fertilizer sector.
To stay up to date with all IFPRI research, datasets, blogs, events, news mentions, tools, and more related to food and fertilizer prices, you can visit our topic page here.
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On the Pulse: A new policy brief from IFPRI and IFAD, “India’s Self-Sufficiency Policies for Pulses and their Implications for Myanmar,” highlights the linkages between pulse consumption, production, and trade policies and their implications for Myanmar’s trade with India, assesses how Myanmar could diversify its pulse exports through trade with other countries, and investigates the potential for both countries to mitigate risks through a government-to-government advance purchase agreement. (Read Policy Brief)
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Food for Thought: A three-year study in northern India finds that persistent anemia, thinness, and short stature during adolescence are associated with poor learning outcomes. This research from Phuong Nguyen and colleagues helps to fill a gap in longitudinal evidence on the topic. (Read Article)
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Fair-Weather Friend?: Carlo Azzarri and Gianluigi Nico matched panel microdata with remote sensing weather data for four countries in Africa south of the Sahara. The findings reveal how the gender of agricultural extension recipients impacts agricultural outcomes for farm households whose agricultural productivity is affected by weather variability. (Read Article)
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Watershed Moment: Research suggests that the Sustainable Land Management Project in Ethiopia, a large-scale land restoration project, had drought-buffering effects over the five-year period studied. The study by Yanyan Liu and colleagues contributes to the timely issue of restoring land productivity and resilience and demonstrates the utility of remote-sensing technologies in impact evaluation models to assess ecosystem restoration programs. (Read Article)
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Russia-Ukraine Crisis Poses Serious Food Security Threat for Egypt:
Rising global wheat prices hit a 10-year high on March 7, 2022. With its high wheat consumption and baladi bread subsidy program for the poor, Egypt faces growing problems from supply disruptions and spiking prices related to the Russia-Ukraine conflict. Egypt is the world’s largest importer of wheat, importing a total of 12-13 million tons annually—the bulk of which comes from Russia and Ukraine.
In an IFPRI blog post, as part of our special series on food and fertilizer prices, researchers discuss the impacts of the conflict on wheat markets, the food security threats for Egypt, and key policy actions that could alleviate some of the current pressures and improve resilience going forward. ( Read Blog)
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Food Price Volatility: The Russia-Ukraine war is exacerbating international food price volatility, and the food security of millions is at stake. Brendan Rice, Manuel Hernández, Joseph Glauber, and Rob Vos explain the dangers of high price volatility, compare the current situation to previous time periods, provide insights on major food staples, and emphasize the importance of monitoring this issue closely. (Read Blog)
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Damage Control: With the impacts of both the pandemic and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, 2022 is shaping up to be a very difficult year for the global food system—but a food crisis has actually been brewing for a while. Derek Headey and Kalle Hirvonen present three factors that make the current situation so serious, and three measures that could help prevent a global food supply system collapse. (Read Blog)
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War Impacts Compound in Yemen: Yemen’s poverty, civil war, and dependence on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine make it uniquely vulnerable to the market and supply disruptions from the invasion of Ukraine. The conflict overseas threatens to exacerbate Yemen’s food insecurity emergency by increasing the cost of key food and energy products, making people more reliant on external assistance, and worsening undernourishment. Sikandra Kurdi, Clemens Breisinger, Joseph Glauber, and David Laborde report. (Read Blog)
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Repurpose and Transform: The massive support provided to agriculture by governments globally— $639 billion per year between 2016 to 2018—has not incentivized sustainable patterns of food production and consumption. A recent IFPRI and World Bank report asserts that a well-designed and coordinated approach to repurposing public agricultural support could deliver multiple wins for people, economies, and the planet. Johann Swinnen and Martien Van Nieuwkoop provide highlights from the report and call for bold action. (Read Blog)
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 It isn’t as if this [food price crisis] happened overnight […] We really have seen, at different periods of time, each event adding some pressure to global commodity prices [prior to the invasion of Ukraine].” – Seth Meyer, Chief Economist, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA). (Event)
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[For MENA countries during the Russia-Ukraine conflict] it’s not just the issue of supply, it’s the issue of ability to buy, and I think under the rising food prices […] it is only natural to look for, as much as possible, local solutions to complement the needs of the people in the [MENA] region.” – Aly Abousabaa, Regional Director, Central and West Asia and North Africa, CGIAR, and Director General, International Center for Agricultural Research in the Dry Areas (ICARDA). (Event)
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You cannot manage what you cannot measure. It would be impossible to reduce food loss and waste if we do not find a way to have data with integrity […] I believe that the era has dawned on us where we need to turn our farmers organizations across the world into data harvesting machines. Data is the new gold in agriculture…” – Theo de Jager, President, World Farmer Organisation. (Event)
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We need to understand more how this international [organizations] architecture works and what changes in it are necessary over time in order to deal with the current [global food and agriculture] challenges.” – Uma Lele, International Policy Expert and Development Economist and President, International Association of Agricultural Economists. (Event)
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Middle East faces severe wheat crisis over war in Ukraine: IFPRI Senior Research Fellow David Laborde was quoted in a DW article about how Middle Eastern and North African countries rely heavily on wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine and are thus threatened by the production and trade impacts of the conflict.
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