Clarin published an op-ed by Eugenio Diaz Bonilla. The op-ed discusses the argument that to avoid devaluation, recession, and increased poverty one must step on the nominal exchange rate. Since we never control inflation with all the measures that would be necessary, invariably it would lead to an even larger devaluation, with much deeper recessions and huge jumps in inflation and poverty, which was what we wanted to avoid. Possible solutions: a) Never again use the exchange rate to curb inflation, but rather coordinate the rest of the fiscal, monetary and social coordination variables for the inflationary issue; b) Establish a rule to maintain the multilateral real exchange rate calculated by the BCRA, around values similar to those of 2002-2007, which was when the economy grew seriously. Currently, exporters should be offered a mix of the official exchange rate and some of the parallels. Obviously, all of this requires a technical explanation, for which there is no place here.
Repeated failures to use the cheap dollar as a tool against inflation (Clarin)
November 16, 2020