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With research staff from more than 70 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

David Spielman

David Spielman is the director of IFPRI’s Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit and has been with the institute since 2004. His research agenda covers a range of topics including agriculture and rural development policy; agricultural science, technology, and innovation; plant genetic resources and seed systems; agricultural extension and advisory services; and community-driven rural development.

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IFPRI currently has more than 480 employees working in over 70 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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TOPIC

Trade

In today’s global economy, international agricultural trade plays an increasingly important role in ensuring food security. But domestic and international policies as well as administrative restrictions can hinder trade flows between domestic and foreign markets and producers. Policies to achieve domestic objectives in one country can affect trade flows in ways that lead to indirect effects in other countries.

IFPRI’s research informs the design of domestic and international trade policies in developing countries, as well as regional and global negotiations to promote an inclusive and efficient international trade system. This includes work on the impact of tariffs, quotas, and nontariff barriers as well as market-distorting food safety and environmental regulations, export bans aimed at food security, and agricultural support payments.

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IFPRI partners with institutions to strengthen developing countries’ capacities to do their own research and independently develop long-term, sustainable trade policies that help to eradicate poverty and support food security. To support rapid responses to market disruptions, IFPRI maintains the Food Security Portal, which provides early warning on international price changes and restrictive trade policies.

IFPRI’s research on this topic is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG1, SDG2, SDG16, and SDG17, and contributes to the CGIAR Impact Areas on Nutrition, Health, and Food Security and Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods, and Jobs.

trade

topics

Publications

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Journal Article

Implications of food trade policy for domestic and international food price volatility

2026Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas
Details

Implications of food trade policy for domestic and international food price volatility

This article investigates the impact of food trade policies on domestic and international price volatility, focusing on rice and wheat markets. It posits that policymakers aim to minimize the political costs associated with changing domestic prices and those associated with deviating from political-economy equilibria. The study uses price data, adjusted to reflect trade costs, to estimate an Error Correction Model that identifies key policy response parameters. The findings suggest that systematic, short-run protection changes designed to insulate against changes in world prices reduce shocks to domestic prices but exacerbate world price volatility. However, idiosyncratic, national shocks to protection rates—such as those due to national weather shocks—increase domestic price volatility relative to the amplified volatility of world prices. Our findings challenge the conventional view of price insulation as a zero-sum game, suggesting it is a negative-sum game that increases domestic price volatility for almost all countries, creating opportunities for policy reforms to lower costs and reduce price volatility.

Year published

2026

Authors

Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; Minot, Nicholas

Citation

Martin, Will; Mamun, Abdullah; and Minot, Nicholas. 2026. Implications of food trade policy for domestic and international food price volatility. Agricultural Economics 57(2): e70101. https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70101

Keywords

Agricultural Trade; Trade Policies; Food Prices; Price Volatility; Behavioural Sciences; Econometric Models

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1111/agec.70101 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Brief

Agricultural trade in Africa: Current trends and challenges

2026Mamboundou, Pierre; Traoré, Fousseini
Details

Agricultural trade in Africa: Current trends and challenges

Agricultural trade can play a central role in meeting people’s food needs, both by increasing available supply and by boosting stakeholders’ incomes, given that 60% of the labor force works in this sector (Bonuedi et al., 2020; Wonyra and Gnedeka 2023). However, an analysis of African agricultural trade performance over the past twenty years highlights some key issues to watch. First, African agricultural trade is the lowest in the world, not helped by high costs of trading and non-tariff measures. Second, a trade deficit that has been steadily widening since 2006 as Africa has become heavily dependent on imports of basic agricultural products such as cereals. The continent currently meets more than 40% of its cereal demand on world markets. This deficit in African agricultural trade is fueled by low productivity, linked to declining yields and a lack of sufficient investment in production, storage, processing, and marketing infrastructure, and rapid population growth and urbanization in Africa which has increased demand for imported food. Third, over the past two decades, the structure of African agricultural exports has remained largely undiversified, with unprocessed cash crops continuing to be the dominant export commodity. To better understand the dynamics of agricultural trade in Africa, this brief analyzes its performance, over the 2003-2023 period, by highlighting the most dynamic countries and regional economic communities, the most exported and imported products, and the continent’s revealed comparative advantages.

Year published

2026

Authors

Mamboundou, Pierre; Traoré, Fousseini

Citation

Mamboundou, Pierre; and Traoré, Fousseini. 2026. Agricultural trade in Africa: Current trends and challenges. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/181883

Keywords

Africa; Trade; Agricultural Trade; Markets; Exports; Imports; Trade Policies; Non-tariff Barriers to Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Brief

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Journal Article

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

2026
Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; Chen, Jing M.; You, Liangzhi; Li, Peiwu; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaoyang
…more Arvor, Damien; Kuchler, Patrick; Huang, Jianxi; Zhang, Hankui; Hao, Pengyu; Huang, Jingfeng; Shi, Zhou; Wang, Fumin; Song, Kaishan; Pei, Zhiyuan; Li, Cunjun; Xie, Yue; Zhang, Qi; Liang, Meijuan; Li, Hui; Hu, Jinkang; Lou, Zihang; Zheng, Shijun; Feng, Xuxiang; Peng, Hao; Li, Xiyu; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Bing
Details

Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability

Since the 20th century, the global soybean trade has undergone major changes, shaped by rising demand, climate-related risks, and shifting international dynamics. Despite its global importance, important gaps remain in understanding the complex drivers and sustainability challenges of this transformation. This review synthesizes both direct and indirect forces reshaping trade flows, spanning market dynamics, supply chain logistics, policy shifts, and technological innovation. We examine how soybean trade expansion has impacted deforestation, inequality, and food security, and assess the responses of governments and companies to address these challenges. Finally, we provide a forward-looking perspective on the strategic pathways needed to ensure a more resilient and sustainable global soybean system. The integrated insights offered in this review can inform sustainable trade strategies and foster cross-scale policy coordination for a more resilient global agri-food system.

Year published

2026

Authors

Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; Chen, Jing M.; You, Liangzhi; Li, Peiwu; Liu, Jianguo; Zhang, Xiaoyang; Arvor, Damien; Kuchler, Patrick; Huang, Jianxi; Zhang, Hankui; Hao, Pengyu; Huang, Jingfeng; Shi, Zhou; Wang, Fumin; Song, Kaishan; Pei, Zhiyuan; Li, Cunjun; Xie, Yue; Zhang, Qi; Liang, Meijuan; Li, Hui; Hu, Jinkang; Lou, Zihang; Zheng, Shijun; Feng, Xuxiang; Peng, Hao; Li, Xiyu; Huete, Alfredo; Zhang, Bing

Citation

Peng, Dailiang; Zhang, Hongchi; Zhang, Yizhou; Yu, Le; Chen, Minpeng; et al. 2026. Global soybean trade dynamics: Drivers, impacts, and sustainability. The Innovation 7(2): 101124. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101124

Keywords

Soybeans; Trade; Smallholders; Food Security; Sustainability; Governance; Livelihoods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.xinn.2025.101124 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts
Issue Post
 | 
March 06, 2026

The Iran war: Potential food security impacts

By Joseph Glauber

Problems in the Strait of Hormuz reverberate globally.

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?
Research Post
 | 
February 05, 2026

Balancing external shocks and domestic reforms: Do U.S. tariffs erode India’s tax reform benefits?

By Barun Deb Pal and Manmeet Ajmani

Modeling converging economic impacts.

When milk quality pays: Evidence from an incentive experiment in Uganda
Research Post
 | 
January 09, 2026

When milk quality pays: Evidence from an incentive experiment in Uganda

By Bjorn Van Campenhout, Sarah Kariuki, Richard Ariong, Jordan Chamberlin, Benon Byarugaba, and Dennis Atuha

Making milk quality visible improves standards, but real gains require price incentives and competition on quality downstream.

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Events

How does Trade Risk Influence Agricultural Policy?
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

April 28, 2026, 10:00 – 11:30 am

How does Trade Risk Influence Agricultural Policy?

The video livestream will be available on this page on April 28, 2026, from 10:00 to 11:30am (EDT). Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. International trade provides critical access to food, especially […]

Navigating Risk: Challenges in Agricultural Commodity Shipping and Insurance Markets
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

February 18, 2026, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Navigating Risk: Challenges in Agricultural Commodity Shipping and Insurance Markets

Shipping is at the heart of global agricultural trade, with more than 80 percent of staple crops and oilseeds moving by sea, yet maritime routes have become increasingly uncertain. Attacks on vessels in strategic corridors, drought‑restricted passages, and sharply rising war‑risk insurance premiums have created levels of exposure not seen in years. Bulk agricultural cargoes […]

Launch of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) 2025
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

December 16, 2025, 12:00 – 2:00 pm

Launch of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) 2025

AKADEMIYA2063 and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), in partnership with AGRA, are convening a hybrid launch event to unveil and discuss the findings of the Africa Agriculture Trade Monitor (AATM) 2025. This annual publication monitors and highlights trends in African agrifood trade, including intra-African trade, the continent’s participation in global trade, insights into […]

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News

March 24, 2026 | In the News

Middle East conflict and food security in Africa (BBC)

This issue of BBC’s “Focus on Africa” looks at how the conflict in the Middle East is affecting the supply of fertilizer on the African continent–with insights from Oliver Kirui, IFPRI Research Fellow and Acting Country Program Leader for Nigeria and Ghana.

March 23, 2026 | In the News

What’s really driving your grocery bill up? (CGTN America)

CGTN spoke with IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber about how the Strait of Hormuz crisis could drive up fertilizer and food prices worldwide.

March 23, 2026 | In the News

Could the Strait of Hormuz crisis lead to a global food emergency? (CGTN Europe)

IFPRI’s Joseph Glauber spoke to CGTN Europe in London to discuss the impact of the Strait of Hormuz crisis on food security.

View all News

Our experts

Kriti Sharma

Kriti Sharma

Research Analyst, Development
Strategies and Governance

Ian Masias

Ian Masias

Program Head, Development
Strategies and Governance

Antoine Bouet

Antoine Bouet

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Nicholas Minot

Nicholas Minot

Nonresident Senior Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Charlotte Hebebrand

Charlotte Hebebrand

Director of Communications and Public Affairs, Communications
and Public Affairs (CPA)