Migration and employment in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015 – 2023
Tajikistan’s economy is highly dependent on personal remittances (World Bank, 2023). Lack of formal well-paid jobs and of private business opportunities locally to earn sufficient household income has motivated people to migrate abroad since the beginning of the 2000s (Shimizutani and Yamada, 2023; World Bank, 2023). Since 2006, the value of personal remittances was more than 25 percent of the country’s GDP, and by 2022, remittances were an estimated 51 percent of Tajikistan’s GDP (World Bank, 2022; Figure 1). Remittances are thus key to poverty reduction in Tajikistan (World Bank, 2023), yet such large reliance on remittances, while providing major opportunities for households to exit poverty, also poses significant vulnerability to reenter poverty and food insecurity in case of any negative shocks affecting employment at the migration location.
This study looks at changes in migration characteristics in twelve districts in Khatlon Province in the past 8 years, using data collected in 2015 and 2023; and at employment patterns in this area in 2023. The 2015 survey was administered during a time when many Tajik migrants were returning to the country as a result of worsening economic conditions in Russia. Indeed, as shown also in Figure 1, personal remittances dropped sharply between 2013 and 2015. In 2015 they were 27 percent of GDP, the lowest level in a decade (World Bank 2023). In contrast, personal remittances were at their highest relative to the country’s GDP in 2022.1 The 2023 survey, therefore, was administered during a time of relatively better conditions for migrants. Migrants were modestly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as after a sharp decline in employment and remittances in April and May 2020, they quickly returned to their former levels (Shimizutani and Yamada, 2021). Strong labor demand in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and an appreciation of the Russian ruble (before it depreciated again towards end of 2022) benefited labor migrants and the remittances they were able to send home (World Bank, 2023).
Authors
Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon; Mardonova, Mohru
Citation
Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon; and Mardonova, Mohru. 2024. Migration and employment in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015 – 2023. Central Asia Working Paper 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152496
Country/Region
Tajikistan
Keywords
Asia; Central Asia; Migration; Employment; Households; Income; Household Surveys; Socioeconomic Environment; Remittances
Access/Licence
Open Access
Project
Fragility, Conflict, and Migration
