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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kalyani Raghunathan

Kalyani Raghunathan is Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in New Delhi, India. Her research lies at the intersection of agriculture, gender, social protection, and public health and nutrition, with a specific focus on South Asia and Africa. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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TOPIC

Markets and Value Chains

Well-functioning markets for agricultural inputs and agrifood products are essential for economic growth and development, as well as food and nutrition security. The development, marketing, distribution, and use of agricultural inputs play an important role in determining production and yields. Agricultural growth and development require efficient and inclusive value chains for agricultural outputs, dynamic markets, efficient contract farming arrangements, horizontal coordination mechanisms, access to information and risk-coping tools for producers and traders, and opportunities for increasing gender equity. But ineffective policies, weak institutions, and inadequate infrastructure often prevent developing countries from moving toward a more market-oriented agricultural economy.

IFPRI researchers study food and agricultural value chains to better understand how to address these challenges. Using tools and experimental approaches developed by IFPRI, researchers test and validate innovative marketing arrangements and public interventions meant to help develop value chains that are efficient, inclusive, and resilient to external shocks. Our work builds understanding of the challenges and opportunities related to risk management, collective action, market failures and missing markets, and public investments to reduce gaps in physical infrastructure.

IFPRI’s research on this topic is closely aligned with the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), including SDG 1, SDG 2, SDG 9, SDG 10, and SDG 16, and the CGIAR Impact Areas on Nutrition, Health, and Food Security and Poverty Reduction, Livelihoods, and Jobs.

markets

topics

Publications

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Working Paper

How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar?

2024Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis
Details

How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar?

Fluctuations in agricultural prices pose significant challenges for fragile and conflict-affected economies due to their critical role in ensuring food security. This study examines changes in agricultural prices at the export, wholesale, and farm level in the case of Myanmar, which experienced a surge in conflicts from 2021 onward, following a military coup. The major findings are as follows: • Regarding macroeconomic impacts, the military government implemented a dual exchange rate system, maintaining a fixed exchange rate significantly below the market rate and effectively imposing an across-the-board export tax on all export commodities of approximately 24 percent between August 2022 and August 2024. This policy particularly affects rice, Myanmar’s main staple and a key export crop. • The scarcity of foreign exchange due to this dual exchange rate system increased the costs of imported inputs. It is estimated that prices of inorganic fertilizers – farmers’ most important commercial input – saw an increase of 10 percent compared to the price in Thailand since the start of the dual exchange rate system. • Regarding domestic trade effects, regions with the highest insecurity exhibited similar agricultural output prices but higher input costs, resulting in reduced farm profitability compared to more secure regions. However, the magnitude of these effects is relatively small, with estimated increases in input prices due to insecurity ranging from one to six percent. Insecure areas also show more often a lack of input availability. • Farmers who reside in insecure areas reported between one and six percentage points higher lack of access to agricultural inputs – fertilizer, agrochemicals, mechanization, and seed – in their communities. The relatively small effects of insecurity on input and output markets suggest a degree of resilience in the private sector’s ability to maintain trade under conflict conditions. • The biggest effect on input markets is seen in the case of agricultural labor. Depending on the measure used, farmers in the most insecure areas had a 7 to 15 percentage points higher likelihood of reporting lack of access to agricultural laborers compared to the most secure areas. • The exchange rate policies are found to have been much more harmful for farmers’ incentives than the domestic trade effects, even for the most conflict-affected areas, indicating the importance of considering macroeconomic effects for agricultural incentives in Myanmar. • Despite the significant disincentives brought about by conflict, the agricultural sector has shown surprising resilience over the recent conflict period, seemingly linked to advantageous international price developments for farmers: international rice prices increased by 27 percent while urea prices decreased by 52 percent between August 2022 and May 2024. • While these international evolutions have partly mitigated the impact of the conflict on farmers’ profitability, the impacts of these price developments on consumers in Myanmar have, however, been severe. An analysis of rice retail prices in Myanmar over the last two and half years show that they have more than tripled and that the overall costs of the common diet more than doubled. A failure of nominal income to keep pace with this food price inflation led to an increase in poverty by 10 percent from the end of 2022 to the end of 2023.

Year published

2024

Authors

Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis

Citation

Myanmar Agrifood Program for Strategy and Analysis (MAPSA). 2024. How have foreign exchange market distortions and conflict affected agricultural production incentives in Myanmar? Myanmar SSP Working Paper 60. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Agricultural Prices; Economic Systems; Food Security; Markets; Exports; Taxes; Imports; Farmers; Inputs

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Book Chapter

Agrifood trade

2024Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Lwin, Wuit Yi
Details

Agrifood trade

Agrifood exports make up about one-third of Myanmar’s total exports, and their share of both total exports and as a ratio of total GDP has risen in recent years. Agrifood exports have the potential to generate higher income for farmers, traders, processors, and other stakeholders within agrifood value chains. Additionally, they can contribute to the country’s foreign exchange earnings, supporting the importation of manufactured products embedded with modern technology required for the transformation of the agrifood sector. This chapter analyzes the past performance of key agrifood exports and assesses their potential role in the transformation of Myanmar’s agrifood system and the overall economy.

Year published

2024

Authors

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; Lwin, Wuit Yi

Citation

Diao, Xinshen; Masias, Ian; and Lwin, Wuit Yi. 2024. Agrifood trade. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities. Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; and Minten, Bart (Eds.). Chapter 14, Pp. 373-408. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155153

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Agrifood Sector; Exports; Value Chains; Income; Markets; Policies; Economic Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Resource thumbnail

Book Chapter

Food processing: A stalled transformation

2024Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye
Details

Food processing: A stalled transformation

Processed foods account for 80 percent of global food sales. Such foods are becoming increasingly important in low- and middle-income countries, driven by growing demand for convenient and ready-to-eat products. The aim of this chapter is to analyze the state and evolution of food processing in Myanmar and to assess the effect of the crises (COVID-19 and the military coup) on the different segments—production, trade, and consumption—of the sector. This assessment is important given the possible implications of changes in food processing for agriculture, employment opportunities in the food processing industry and food service sector, and nutritional outcomes.

Year published

2024

Authors

Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; Zone, Phoo Pye

Citation

Minten, Bart; Ecker, Olivier; Comstock, Andrew; Mahrt, Kristi; Fang, Peixun; Goeb, Joseph; and Zone, Phoo Pye. 2024. Food processing: A stalled transformation. In Myanmar’s agrifood system: Historical development, recent shocks, future opportunities. Boughton, Duncan; Belton, Ben; Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Masias, Ian; and Minten, Bart (Eds.). Chapter 13, Pp. 341-372. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155155

Country/Region

Myanmar

Keywords

South-eastern Asia; Food Processing; Shock; Agro-industrial Sector; Markets; Trade; Processed Foods

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

India lifts export restrictions on rice
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 08, 2024

India lifts export restrictions on rice

By Joseph Glauber and Abdullah Mamun

Assessing impacts on global markets and African consumers.

The likely U.S. longshoreman strike and its implications for agricultural trade
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 30, 2024

The likely U.S. longshoreman strike and its implications for agricultural trade

By Joseph Glauber

Disruptions ahead for some developing countries exporting to the U.S.

Does conflict-driven internal displacement influence demand for agricultural inputs? Evidence from Nigeria
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 26, 2024

Does conflict-driven internal displacement influence demand for agricultural inputs? Evidence from Nigeria

By Mulubrhan Amare, Kate Ambler, Temilolu Bamiwuye, Jeffrey Bloem, Rewa Misra, and Julia Wagner

Examining the effectiveness of vouchers and marketing information.

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Events

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

May 28, 2024, 9:00 – 5:00 pm

ICTforAg 2024: Localizing impact

Event: May 28, 2024 – 9:00am to 5:00pm EDT. This event explores the localization of ICT, responsible AI in agriculture, the potential for AI to increase farm profitability, empowering citizen science, and harnessing digital solutions for sustainable and regenerative farming practices.

Dairy and Nutrition in the Global South: Potential, Progress, and Obstacles Ahead
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

April 24, 2024, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Dairy and Nutrition in the Global South: Potential, Progress, and Obstacles Ahead

Virtual Event: April 24, 2024 at 9:30am-11:00am EDT. This policy seminar examines the potential of dairy development to improve nutrition outcomes, focusing on dairy’s sizable potential for reducing child stunting and other forms of malnutrition, and how dairy systems are being developed to help meet this potential. 

Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

February 28, 2024, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies

Webinar: February 28, 2024 – 09:30 AM to 11:00 AM EST. IFPRI is participating in the “Drivers of Agrifood System Transformation: Lessons from Feed-the-Future Country Studies” webinar.

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News

September 03, 2024 | Press Release

Ruth Hill joins IFPRI as the new Director of the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit

Ruth Hill joins IFPRI as the new Director of its Markets, Trade, and Institutions (MTI) Unit, starting September 3, 2024. 

September 06, 2023 | In the News

Unpacking the 2023 Africa agriculture assessment report (CNBC Africa) 

CNBC Africa interviewed John Ulimwengu, IFPRI Senior Research Fellow and the technical editor and lead researcher of the Africa Agriculture Status Report 2023, launched on September 6 at the Africa Food Systems Forum (AGRF). .  The Report titled “Empowering Africa’s Food Systems for the Future” highlights the ways in which Africa is uniquely positioned to redefine its future and […]

January 25, 2024 | In the News

The timing of the Red Sea attacks could not be worse for Democrats (Politico)

Senior research fellow Joseph Glauber is quoted in a Politico story about how the growing military conflict in a key trade corridor is threatening to unleash economic havoc on the global economy ahead of November. “If energy prices go up and remain high, you’d see food inflation persisting,” said Joe Glauber. He added that potential […]

View all News

Our experts

Shahidur Rashid

Shahidur Rashid

Director, South Asia Office, South
Asia, Development Strategies and Governance

David Spielman

David Spielman

Director, Innovation Policy and Scaling (IPS), Innovation
Policy and Scaling

Thomas Assefa

Thomas Assefa

Associate Research Fellow, Innovation
Policy and Scaling

Yanyan Liu

Yanyan Liu

Senior Research Fellow, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions

Karl Pauw

Karl Pauw

Senior Research Fellow, Foresight
and Policy Modeling

Amit Burman

Amit Burman

Project Coordinator, Development
Strategies and Governance

Razin Kabir

Razin Kabir

Senior Program Manager, Poverty,
Gender, and Inclusion

Brendan Rice

Brendan Rice

Research Specialist, Markets,
Trade, and Institutions