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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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experts

Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion

Razin Kabir

Senior Program Manager

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Bio

Razin Kabir is a Senior Program Manager in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in Dhaka, Bangladesh. His research interests include agricultural value chain performance and food and nutrition security issues. His ongoing work includes investigating the impact of cluster farming initiatives on productivity and livelihoods for shrimp farmers, as well as providing policy insights on large-scale mechanization subsidy programs in Bangladesh. At IFPRI, Razin has previously worked on studies examining the effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on value chains, estimating private sector rice stocks via a nationally representative survey of the value chain, establishing loss estimates for public food-grain storage, and assessing the impacts of public sector price stabilization policies.

Currently, Razin is the country coordinator for the CGIAR Research Initiative on Rethinking Food Markets, as well as the deputy chief of party for the USAID-funded Feed the Future Bangladesh Research Activity. He joined IFPRI in December 2016 as part of the Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Before joining IFPRI, Razin worked as a senior research associate at the BRAC James P. Grant School of Public Health. He received both his master’s degree in international public health and bachelor’s degree in medical science (Immunobiology) from the University of Sydney, Australia.

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Publications

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

2024Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; Shaima, Nabila Afrin
Details

Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover

This report has been prepared as one of the deliverables of the Bangladesh Integrated Food Policy Research Program (BIFPRP) implemented by the Ministry of Food, Government of Bangladesh under a World Investment for Modernizing Food Storages Facilities in the country. The key arguments and recommendations drawn up for the report are based on both quantitative and qualitative data. Food and agricultural policies have historically played a crucial role in triggering growth in many developing countries. While there were debates, public procurement and distribution of food are widely accepted as a “second best” solutions for countries characterized by markets and institutional failures. However, Bangladesh has done remarkably well in adjusting to changing realities and the country is now widely recognized for its agricultural policy reforms. But there is still room for further improvement and efficiency gains for which two broad sets of recommendation can be considered: 1) Pricing and procurement targets – Pricing in Bangladesh continues to be based on the average cost of production but with the application of satellite imageries, app-based small area estimation, the procurement price estimates can be improved substantially. Also, the current procurement target determination formula misses out on some key aspects of production, marketing, and macroeconomic parameters. The quota for each upazila is based on total production and milling capacities but it also needs to consider the net surplus to calculate how much could be procured in each Upazilas. 2) Alternative procurement modalities a) The report recommends changing this modality to Delivered to Destination Warehouse (DDW) through the open tendering method and undertaking pilots and learning from experiences to enhance efficiency can be important. b) Linking smallholders to markets through product aggregation has received renewed attention globally. Available data suggests that Bangladesh’s public procurement has thus far not managed to effectively integrate small farmers to its procurement system. To scale up nationally, we believe that more innovation in technology and a new institutional set up will be necessary. c) Implementing Delivered Duty Paid Modality on a pilot basis where the seller assumes all responsibilities and costs for delivering the goods to the named place of destination. d) Piloting Deficiency Payment Method as an effective method to provide both income and price to farmers of a wide range of agricultural commodities. Two key instruments of implementing this method would be Marketing Assistance Loan (MAL) and the Loan Deficiency Payment (LDP), which are tools available to the farmers. A recent report by the NITI Aayog of India also makes a strong case for this procurement modality and we also argue in favor of undertaking this pilot.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; Shaima, Nabila Afrin

Citation

Rashid, Shahidur; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; and Shaima, Nabila Afrin. 2024. Effectiveness of current and alternative procurement modalities: An evaluation of the effectiveness of current and potential alternative grain procurement modalities, and development of a framework for stock turnover. IFPRP Working Paper 16. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149087

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Southern Asia; Price Policies; Agricultural Production; Markets; Supply Balance; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

2024Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; Shaima, Nabila Afrin
Details

Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models

The “Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU” is an element of Integrated Food Policy Research Program (IFPRP). Originally signed in 2016 between the Government of Bangladesh (GoB) and the Joint Venture (JV) comprising the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), the Bangladesh Institute of the Development Studies (BIDS), and the University of Illinois, IFPRP was extended and modified in subsequent periods. The most recent updated contract between the GoB and the JV was signed in mid-2022. Deliverable 4.3, Foresight for Food Markets: Developing and Implementing Market Forecasting Methods/Models with Hands-on Training at the FPMU is one of the new deliverables included in the updated contract. Rising prices of essential commodities affect consumer welfare and pose a serious challenge to the Government of Bangladesh. Knowing prices of essentials in advance would allow the government to take necessary measures to restrain the extent of price increases or to mitigate effects of rising prices; such measures could include provisions of direct distributions of rice and wheat through social safety net programs or of subsidized open market sales on the one hand and engaging in direct imports of essentials or easing import restrictions for the private sector, on the other. Because price fluctuations are a feature of a free market, there is a persistent need for the government to be able to project consumer prices in advance. Accordingly, it is important that in addition to receiving estimates prepared by external experts, the government has the ability to obtain its own price projections; the government should have the estimates when it needs them and for commodities for which such information is needed. Against this backdrop, IFPRP is providing hands-on training on price projection techniques to officials from the Food Planning and Monitoring Unit (FPMU), the Directorate General of Food (DG Food), and the Ministry of Food (MoFood). It is envisioned that trained officials from the DG Food, the Ministry of Food, and mostly from the FPMU will produce price projection estimates on their own with IFPRP personnel helping a consultative capacity.

Year published

2024

Authors

Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; Shaima, Nabila Afrin

Citation

Dorosh, Paul A.; Mustafa, Shoumi; Kabir, Razin Iqbal; and Shaima, Nabila Afrin. 2024. Foresight for food markets: Developing and implementing market forecasting methods/models. IFPRP Working Paper 13. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/149088

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Capacity Development; Food Policies; Forecasting; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model

2024Minot, Nicholas; Hossain, Shahadat; Kabir, Razin; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur
Details

Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model

Rice plays a central role in the diet in Bangladesh and as a source of income for farmers. Although Bangladesh has largely liberalized international trade in rice, it maintains a public food distribution system to stablize prices, distributing an average of 2 million tons of rice per year at a cost of almost US$ 800 million per year. This study explores whether alternative policies could achieve similar stabilization at a lower cost. It uses a stochastic spatial-equilibrium model of rice markets to simulate monthly prices in eight regions of the country. Stochastic shocks are used to simulate fluctuations in regional production, replicating historical patterns at the region-season level, as well as inter-regional correlation in production shocks. It also simulates fluctuation in world rice prices, mimicking the mean, variance, and serial correlation of historical wholesale prices of rice in Delhi. Public procurement and distribution follow historic averages by month and region. Private storage is represented by a simplified version of rational expectations models, in which net storage is a non-linear function of availability in the previous month. One set of simulations tests alternative levels of distribution, finding that cutting distribution to 1 million tons would have minimal effects on the level of rice price stability. Another set of simulations tested different import tariff levels, including the baseline rate of 25%1. We find that lower tariffs result in both lower rice prices and less price instability, as world rice prices tend to be more stable than local prices. Simulating a buffer stock with different price bands shows that a narrow band can achieve high price stability but at a high fiscal cost. A 20 T/kg (USD 0.26/kg) price band generates similar price stabilization at a lower cost compared to current policy. However, it is difficult to set the “right” purchase and sale price, and many simulations result in exhausting reserves or reaching warehouse capacity. An adaptive buffer stock, in which the price is adjusted as the stock runs too low or too high, solves some of these problems. In general, the study finds that current procurement and distribution patterns do not match well with the regional and monthly patterns of surplus and deficit, possibly reflecting multiple and conflicting goals of the public food distribution system.

Year published

2024

Authors

Minot, Nicholas; Hossain, Shahadat; Kabir, Razin; Dorosh, Paul A.; Rashid, Shahidur

Citation

Minot, Nicholas; Hossain, Shahadat; Kabir, Razin; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Rashid, Shahidur. 2024. Assessing the impact of rice price stabilization policies in Bangladesh: Results from a stochastic spatial equilibrium model. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2252. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/141799

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Equilibrium; Price Stabilization; Stochastic Models; Rice; Tariffs

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Events

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

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August 2 to 7, 2024

32nd International Conference of Agricultural Economists

The triennial International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE-2024), centred on the theme “Transformation Towards Sustainable Agri-Food Systems” is scheduled from August 2-7, 2024, in New Delhi, India. The conference offers a distinctive platform, providing a golden opportunity for the agricultural academic institutions and researchers to convene in person, exchange knowledge, and actively contribute to the […]