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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

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Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Foresight and Policy Modeling

Emerta Aragie

Research Fellow

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Bio

Emerta A. Aragie is a Research Fellow in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. He is an economist whose research focuses on computable general equilibrium based ex ante analyses of the impacts of investment and agricultural policies in developing countries on income distribution, poverty, and food security. His past research focused on evaluating the consequences of climate change on internal migration, prioritizing public investment policies, and analyzing agricultural trade. His current research focuses on Africa south of the Sahara and has involved studies on Ethiopia, Ghana, Kenya, Malawi, Rwanda, and Uganda.

Before joining IFPRI in 2018, Emerta worked as an economic modeler at the Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO). He holds a PhD in economics from Oxford Brookes University, UK.

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Publications

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Brief

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James
Details

Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding-oriented, and health oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The model estimates the economic and livestock systems over a period of five years (t1-t5) from a base year at t0, which corresponds to the Fifth Structural Transformation in Agriculture (PSTA5) period.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Bahta, Sirak; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo; Karugia, Joseph; Thurlow, James; and Warner, James. 2025. Synopsis: The dynamic impact of alternative livestock sector interventions and spending options in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 20. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Livestock; Budgets; Economic Aspects; Agriculture; Agricultural Productivity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief

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Working Paper

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James
Details

The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda

This study evaluates the cost-effectiveness of various livestock interventions—feed, breeding, and health—and budget allocation strategies (balanced, feed-oriented, breeding oriented, and health-oriented) in the context of Rwanda’s economic and livestock systems. Using an economic and livestock systems integrated framework, the research highlights moderate yet sustained impacts on agricultural Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and significant improvements in the livestock sector. Overall, breeding interventions have the largest cumulative effect on agricultural GDP, while health measures, particularly dewormers, yield long-term gains in livestock productivity. Under the balanced scenario, breeding contributes significantly to both meat and milk sector GDP, while feed interventions show a smaller impact overall. The study also finds that biased spending scenarios lead to differing outcomes across livestock sub-sectors. Breeding-oriented spending boosts milk GDP initially, whereas health-oriented spending excels in meat production through reduced deaths and increased liveweight. By the end of the simulation period, a balanced investment strategy results in a 12.5 percent increase in meat yield and a 27 percent rise in milk yield, largely driven by breeding. Health interventions, particularly deworming, are crucial for sustained meat production, while improved feed mitigates mortality and supports stock growth. These results can support policy dialogue, such as the recently introduced Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5), as policy makers seek to revitalize the livestock sector and enhance its resilience to future challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Bahta, Sirak T.; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo K.; Karugia, Joseph T.; Thurlow, James; Warner, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Bahta, Sirak; Baltenweck, Isabelle; Enahoro, Dolapo; Karugia, Joseph; Thurlow, James; and Warner, James. 2025. The dynamic impacts of alternative livestock sector intervention and spending options in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Working Paper 15. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173465

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Livestock; Agriculture; Agricultural Policies; Gross National Product

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

2025Aragie, Emerta A.; Ingabire, Chantal; Thurlow, James; Warner, James
Details

Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy

Data-driven and evidence-based approaches are critical for shaping public policy, investment, and expenditure decisions, ensuring that development plans are effective and well-informed. The RIAPA model, utilized in this study, has played a key role in informing policy discussions, including the identification of national priorities and strategies, the mid-term assessment of the Rwanda’s fourth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 4), and the post-COVID-19 recovery and relief efforts. This policy note employs a Rwanda-specific RIAPA model integrated with an investment module to analyze the expected benefits from agricultural investments outlined in the Fifth Strategic Plan for Agriculture Transformation (PSTA 5) for 2025-2029. Results show that, compared to PSTA 4 spending trends, a moderate spending scenario under PSTA 5 could accelerate agricultural transformation and inclusive growth by 2.8 percentage points. A higher budget scenario, re quiring an average annual expenditure of $610 million, is projected to reach an ambitious eight percent agricultural growth target. Faster agricultural growth would further stimulate the off-farm components of the agri-food system, reinforcing agriculture’s role as an economic growth engine. By 2029, PSTA 5 could reduce poverty and undernourishment by 1.6 million people, contingent on managing potentially significant climatic and external economic risks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Aragie, Emerta A.; Ingabire, Chantal; Thurlow, James; Warner, James

Citation

Aragie, Emerta; Ingabire, Chantal; Knudsen, Mads; Thurlow, James; and Warner, James. 2025. Assessing the projected impacts of alternative PSTA5 spending trajectories on the Rwandan economy. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Modelling; Policies; Agriculture; Agrifood Systems; Public Expenditure

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief

Events

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia's livestock sector
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 24, 2020, 3:00 – 5:30 pm

Improving evidence for better policy making in Ethiopia’s livestock sector

In collaboration with the Livestock Systems Innovation Lab (LSIL), the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) has been doing collaborative work over the last 3 years with the Ethiopian Institute of Agricultural Research (EIAR) and Policy Studies Institute (PSI) to study the livestock sector in Ethiopia. Analysis has been done on the consumption and markets […]

6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

September 23 to 26, 2019

6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists

IFPRI is participating in the the 6th African Conference of Agricultural Economists 2019 hosted by the African Association of Agricultural Economists​. The conference will explore the recent developments in agricultural systems across Africa. Key drivers of change include population growth, rapid urbanization, productivity enhancing innovation, climate change, the rise of agri-preneurship, land reform, as well as […]

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