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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

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Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

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Publications

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Journal Article

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

2025Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan
Details

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan

Citation

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; and Rice, Brendan. 2025. Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790

Keywords

Shock; Fertilizers; Markets; Prices; Profitability; Global Value Chains; Supply Chain Disruptions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790 Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Journal Article

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Report

Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars

2025Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars

As President-elect Donald Trump prepares to take up residence at the White House for the second time, US farmers nervously await what is in store for the agricultural sector, particularly in trade. In 2018 and 2019, US agriculture suffered from collateral damage during the previous Trump administration as the president’s unilateral actions on trade against foreign suppliers of US imports had serious repercussions for US agricultural exports.

Year published

2025

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W. 2025. Farmers brace for a new round of trade wars. Washington, DC: American Enterprise Institute (AEI). https://www.aei.org/research-products/report/farmers-brace-for-a-new-round-of-trade-wars/

Country/Region

United States

Keywords

Americas; Northern America; Agriculture; Farmers; Tariffs; Trade

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Report

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Working Paper

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

2024Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah
Details

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

Year published

2024

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W.; and Mamun, Abdullah. 2024. Global rice market: Current Outlook and future prospects. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2310. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168523

Keywords

Climate; Rice; Risk; Trade; Vulnerability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Events

Ending Hunger and Malnutrition: Keeping Our Eyes on the Road
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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April 22, 2025, 9:30 – 11:30 am

Ending Hunger and Malnutrition: Keeping Our Eyes on the Road

Also streaming on Please type your questions into the chat box with name, affiliation, and country. The event video, presenter slides, and podcast will be available in the days following the event. While global agricultural commodity prices have come down from the high levels seen in recent years, the world remains far off track in […]

Biofuels and the Global Vegetable Oil Market
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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March 4, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Biofuels and the Global Vegetable Oil Market

Production of biodiesel fuel in Brazil, the European Union, Indonesia, and the United States has grown by nearly 40 percent over the past five years, driven largely by subsidies and government mandates. Government regulations aimed at reducing greenhouse gas emissions have also boosted demand for vegetable oils and created new markets for used cooking oils […]

Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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January 13, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead

Global agricultural markets have been in a constant state of uproar over the past 5 years. Trade wars between major trading nations such as China, US and Australia, supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East and export restrictions have diverted supplies, altered trading patterns, increased price volatility […]

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News

January 06, 2025 | In the News

Global Food Costs in 2025: Interview with Joseph Glauber (CGTN America)

In a video interview with CGTN America, Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus at IFPRI, explains the dynamics of global food prices. He emphasizes that the FAO Food Price Index measures commodity prices (e.g., grains, meat, vegetable oils) rather than retail food prices. Although commodity prices have generally decreased since their 2022 peaks, retail prices remain high […]

January 25, 2024 | In the News

The timing of the Red Sea attacks could not be worse for Democrats (Politico)

Senior research fellow Joseph Glauber is quoted in a Politico story about how the growing military conflict in a key trade corridor is threatening to unleash economic havoc on the global economy ahead of November. “If energy prices go up and remain high, you’d see food inflation persisting,” said Joe Glauber. He added that potential […]

January 18, 2024 | In the News

Red Sea attacks reverberate in food and ag trade (Successful Farming) 

Successful Farming quotes the IFPRI blog post on the Impacts of Red Sea shipping disruptions on global food security by senior research fellow Joseph Glauber and senior research analyst Abdullah Mamun.  According to the article, Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea are disrupting grain shipments from Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. “Trade disruptions are most likely to impact […]

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