Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Vartika Singh

Vartika Singh is a Senior Research Analyst in the Natural Resources and Resilience Unit, based in New Delhi, and a Senior Research Officer at the Indian Institute of Management, Ahmedabad. She is currently a doctoral candidate at Humboldt University in Berlin and a guest researcher at the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) in Germany. Her research interest is in the nexus of food-water-energy and land. 

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Director General’s Office (DGO)

Joseph Glauber

Research Fellow Emeritus

Follow

Joseph

at:

ORCiD

Bio

Joe Glauber is a Research Fellow Emeritus in the Director General’s Office. His areas of interest are price volatility, global grain reserves, crop insurance, and trade.

Prior to joining IFPRI, Joe spent over 30 years at the U.S. Department of Agriculture, including as Chief Economist from 2008 to 2014. As Chief Economist, he was responsible for the Department’s agricultural forecasts and projections; oversaw climate, energy, and regulatory issues; and served as Chairman of the Board of Directors of the Federal Crop Insurance Corporation. From 2007 to 2009, Joe was the Special Doha Agricultural Envoy at the office of the U.S. Trade Representative where he served as Chief Agricultural Negotiator in the Doha talks. He served as economic adviser at the “Blair House agreements,” leading to the completion of the Uruguay Round negotiations.

Joe is the author of numerous studies on crop insurance, disaster policy, and US farm policy. In 2012, he was elected Fellow of the Agricultural and Applied Economics Association. He received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Wisconsin and holds an bachelor’s degree in Anthropology from the University of Chicago.

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

2025Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan
Details

Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability

During 2021–2022, spiking fertilizer prices raised fears that fertilizer application would drop around the world, leading to lower crop production, higher food prices, and greater food insecurity. Even writing mid-2024, a paucity of data impedes a full assessment of how the underlying global market shocks may have affected farmers and food production around the world. Using proxy indicators for fertilizer demand and farm profitability, we find that despite the steep increase in input costs, global demand for fertilizer fell only modestly during the 2022–2023 crop cycle, suggesting many (commercial) farmers were able and willing to absorb increased input costs in the context of generally good harvest prospects and, at the time, high crop prices. However, we also find the fertilizer price spikes have not been felt equally, with many farmers in Africa estimated to have been affected more adversely, even though with varied impacts also amongst those farmers.

Year published

2025

Authors

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; Rice, Brendan

Citation

Vos, Rob; Glauber, Joseph W.; Hebebrand, Charlotte; and Rice, Brendan. 2025. Global shocks to fertilizer markets: Impacts on prices, demand and farm profitability. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102790. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790

Keywords

Shock; Fertilizers; Markets; Prices; Profitability; Global Value Chains; Supply Chain Disruptions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-ND-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102790 Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

2024Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah
Details

Global rice market: Current outlook and future prospects

Rice is a major food crop supplying, on average, 516 kcal per capita per day or roughly 17.3% of total calories consumed globally in 2022. Rice production and consumption is concentrated in Asia though rice has grown as an important staple crop outside of Asia. Sub-Saharan Africa currently accounts for 7 percent of global rice consumption but account for over 28 percent of total rice imports. Rice is a thinly traded crop compared to other staples like wheat and maize. Rice imports account for about 10 percent of total consumption today but import penetration is expected to grow to about 11 percent by 2033. India is the world’s largest exporter accounting for about 40 percent of total exports in recent years. Pakistan, Thailand, Vietnam and the United States account for an additional 40 percent of world exports. Mid-range projections for the next 10 years suggest that trends in place will likely continue. Yields are assumed to keep pace with global consumption trends. Sub-Saharan Africa will account for a significant share of the overall growth in consumption. The US Department of Agriculture (USDA) forecasts that Sub-Saharan Africa will account for 27 percent of the growth in global rice consumption and 47 percent of the growth in global imports over the next 10 years. Climate and government distortions remain the single largest vulnerabilities to the rice market. Because of the large concentration of rice production in South and Southeast Asia, crop production is vulnerable to El Niño and other climatic events like the Indian Ocean Dipole which can bring hot and dry weather and disrupt the monsoon season. Since rice is so thinly traded, market restrictions imposed by one of more of the major exporting countries can cause large price impacts. In 2007/08, export bans affected as much as 80 percent of rice trade which caused global prices to almost triple. In July 2023, India imposed export restrictions fearing that domestic production would be harmed by a developing El Nino event. Global rice prices rose by 30 percent as a result. Importing countries bore much of the brunt of those increases, particularly poorer countries in the rice-importing areas of Sub-Saharan Africa. Other potential vulnerabilities include logistical issues, particularly bottlenecks in the major shipping lanes of Asia.

Year published

2024

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.; Mamun, Abdullah

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W.; and Mamun, Abdullah. 2024. Global rice market: Current Outlook and future prospects. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2310. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168523

Keywords

Climate; Rice; Risk; Trade; Vulnerability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Resource thumbnail

Book Chapter

Public stockholding programs and the WTO

2024Glauber, Joseph W.
Details

Public stockholding programs and the WTO

The issue of how support for public stockholding (PSH) programs is calculated and disciplined within the WTO Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) has been a point of contention since 2012. PSH was largely uncontroversial during the Doha negotiations, where issues like the Special Safeguard Mechanism, domestic support, and cotton contributed to the collapse of negotiations in 2008 (Blustein 2009; Jones 2010; Margulis 2023). However, members who raised administered prices to keep up with surging market prices in the late 2000s found themselves facing potential challenges, as support levels for PSH programs threatened to exceed domestic support commitments under the AoA. At the Ministerial Conference in Bali in 2013 (MC 9), members agreed to an interim mechanism, which granted a “peace clause” to countries with existing PSH programs, effectively shielding them from challenges regarding compliance with domestic support obligations under the WTO Dispute Settlement Mechanism. Under the Bali Decision, members agreed to provide data on how the program operated and to ensure that such programs were not trade distorting or would not affect the food security of other WTO members. PSH remains controversial and members failed to reach agreement on a permanent solution at subsequent Ministerials in Nairobi, Buenos Aires and Geneva. More than 10 years later, failure to reach an agreement on PSH continues to block significant progress in overall negotiations.

Year published

2024

Authors

Glauber, Joseph W.

Citation

Glauber, Joseph W. 2024. Public stockholding programs and the WTO. In Navigating the trade landscape: A Latin American perspective building on the WTO 13th ministerial conference, eds. Valeria Piñeiro, Adriana Campos, and Martin Piñeiro. Chapter 5, Pp. 42-59. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/151907

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Agriculture; Market Prices; Stocks; Wto

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-SA-3.0-IGO

Source

Source record

Record type

Book Chapter

Blogs

How Trump tariffs might impact countries of Latin America and the Caribbean
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 17, 2025

How Trump tariffs might impact countries of Latin America and the Caribbean

By Joseph Glauber and Juan Pablo Gianatiempo

The possible return of trade wars.

India lifts export restrictions on rice
IFPRI Blog
 | 
November 08, 2024

India lifts export restrictions on rice

By Joseph Glauber and Abdullah Mamun

Assessing impacts on global markets and African consumers.

The likely U.S. longshoreman strike and its implications for agricultural trade
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 30, 2024

The likely U.S. longshoreman strike and its implications for agricultural trade

By Joseph Glauber

Disruptions ahead for some developing countries exporting to the U.S.

View all Blogs

Events

Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

January 13, 2025, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Trade disruptions and their impacts on agricultural markets: Looking back and ahead

Global agricultural markets have been in a constant state of uproar over the past 5 years. Trade wars between major trading nations such as China, US and Australia, supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic, Russia’s war in Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East and export restrictions have diverted supplies, altered trading patterns, increased price volatility […]

Understanding the New Dynamics of Agrifood Trade, Perspectives by Pascal Lamy
Series/Special Event

 | 

May 30, 2024, 2:30 – 4:00 pm

Understanding the New Dynamics of Agrifood Trade, Perspectives by Pascal Lamy

Hybrid Event: May 30, 2024 at 2:30pm-4:00pm EDT. Please join us for a lecture by IFPRI Board Chair Pascal Lamy, a foremost expert in international trade matters, who served as the European Union’s Trade Commissioner and as the World Trade Organization’s Director General. The lecture will be followed by comments from a panel of international trade experts and a Q&A session.

Emerging Trends in the Global Soybean Complex
IFPRI Policy Seminar

 | 

December 14, 2023, 9:30 – 11:00 am

Emerging Trends in the Global Soybean Complex

Virtual IFPRI-AMIS Seminar Series: December 14, 2023 at 9:30am-11:00am EST. This seminar will explore the market outlook for soybeans and vegetable oils, and examine the implications of the US biodiesel industry and recent developments in South American soybean production.

View all Events

News

January 06, 2025 | In the News

Global Food Costs in 2025: Interview with Joseph Glauber (CGTN America)

In a video interview with CGTN America, Joseph Glauber, Research Fellow Emeritus at IFPRI, explains the dynamics of global food prices. He emphasizes that the FAO Food Price Index measures commodity prices (e.g., grains, meat, vegetable oils) rather than retail food prices. Although commodity prices have generally decreased since their 2022 peaks, retail prices remain high […]

January 25, 2024 | In the News

The timing of the Red Sea attacks could not be worse for Democrats (Politico)

Senior research fellow Joseph Glauber is quoted in a Politico story about how the growing military conflict in a key trade corridor is threatening to unleash economic havoc on the global economy ahead of November. “If energy prices go up and remain high, you’d see food inflation persisting,” said Joe Glauber. He added that potential […]

January 18, 2024 | In the News

Red Sea attacks reverberate in food and ag trade (Successful Farming) 

Successful Farming quotes the IFPRI blog post on the Impacts of Red Sea shipping disruptions on global food security by senior research fellow Joseph Glauber and senior research analyst Abdullah Mamun.  According to the article, Houthi attacks on cargo ships in the Red Sea are disrupting grain shipments from Europe, Ukraine, and Russia. “Trade disruptions are most likely to impact […]

View all News