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The Australian Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) is tasked with advancing and protecting Australian interests internationally and contributing to global stability and economic growth. DFAT provides trade and development policy advice to the Australian government. Their development policy, Australian Aid, promotes prosperity, reduces poverty, and enhances stability.

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Fresh Food Price Analysis in Papua New Guinea

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Publications

Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Details

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Papua New Guinea Project Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173653

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Domestic Production; Machine Learning; Shock; Vulnerability; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Details

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2025. Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173654

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Climate Change; Crop Yield; Rainfall; Taro

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Working Paper

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

2025Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian

Details

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian

Citation

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; and Safi, Wendy. 2025. ‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2327. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173423

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Ecosystems; Forest Governance; Households; Payment Agreements; Willingness to Pay

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper