International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie)

International Initiative for Impact Evaluation (3ie) promotes evidence-informed equitable, inclusive and sustainable development. 3ie supports the generation and effective use of high-quality evidence to inform decision-making and improve the lives of people living in poverty in low- and middle-income countries. 3ie provides guidance and support to produce, synthesize and quality assure evidence of what works, for whom, how, why, and at what cost.

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Projects

Picture-Based Crop Insurance (PBI)

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Publications

Brief

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Details

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2025. Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173654

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Climate Change; Crop Yield; Rainfall; Taro

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Working Paper

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

2025Mukangabo, Emerence; Warner, James

Details

Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households

Using a household dietary diversity score as a proxy for household access to nutritious foods, this paper assesses the relationship between commercialization and nutritional outcomes of Rwandan smallholder farmers, with a particular emphasis on women and youth headed households. The results indicate that commercialization has a strong, positive effect on household dietary diversity but mixed results between sub-categories of households. For instance, male-headed households have higher overall dietary diversity compared to female-headed ones, but much of that variation can be explained by higher asset ownership and income. However, relative to male headed households, female headed households appear to respond to increasing levels of commercialization by consuming more diverse foods, an insight that could be useful for targeted interventions. Importantly, youth-headed households exhibit greater household dietary diversity than those households headed by older individuals, despite having both lower levels of assets and crop commercialization. General determinants that positively influence household dietary diversity include the level of commercialization, household non-farm assets, market access, education of the household head, the presence of children under five in the household, irrigation use, land size, and livestock holdings. The goal of this research is to enable policy makers to better identify the drivers of household dietary consumption, particularly among more vulnerable households, and how to encourage a more diverse diet for better nutritional outcomes.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukangabo, Emerence; Warner, James

Citation

Mukangabo, Emerence; and Warner, James. 2025. Commercialization and dietary diversity of Rwandan smallholder farmers: A focus on women and youth headed households. Rwanda SSP Working Paper 16. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173175

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Nutrition; Dietary Diversity; Commercialization; Gender; Youth; Households; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

2025Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian

Details

‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea

Payment for Ecosystem Services (PES) programs (such as REDD+ and voluntary carbon credit programs) have been designed to provide improved forest governance, reduced carbon emissions and diversified income sources for forest communities. However, recent evaluations of REDD+ projects across diverse countries have shown mixed results. In 2022, the government of Papua New Guinea put a moratorium on voluntary carbon credit programs due to inadequately specified processes on contract design and targeting, resulting in ongoing deforestation and lack of transparent remuneration in participating communities under select programs. As the country reassesses how to engage in voluntary carbon credit programs, this study aims to inform the design of PES programs tailored to meet the needs of forest landholders. Using recently collected rural household survey data, we evaluate the unique characteristics that are correlated with forest-owning households’ likelihood of accepting a PES contract. The discrete choice experiments included in the survey, and complementary focus group discussions suggest that forest landholders prefer PES contracts with higher financial incentives and lower land area commitments, requiring an additional $39.07 per hectare per year to preserve all forested land compared to committing half of their forested land to a PES contract. Other factors, such as household size, the use of forest land for timber production and commercial logging, ongoing forest preservation activities within a community and market access also influence respondents’ preferences for PES contracts.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian

Citation

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; and Safi, Wendy. 2025. ‘Gold runs through these trees’: Preferences for ecosystems payment programs in Papua New Guinea. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2327. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173423

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Ecosystems; Forest Governance; Households; Payment Agreements; Willingness to Pay

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper