Cyclone Idai has brought destruction to parts of Mozambique, Malawi, and Zimbabwe in what could become one of the worst weather-related disasters to hit the Southern Hemisphere in this decade. Hundreds have died and as many as 600,000 people have been displaced, according to the World Food Programme.
In Malawi, President Peter Mutharika declared a State of Disaster following the torrential rains and severe flooding and devastation in 15 districts in southern Malawi. Flooding in rural and urban areas collapsed buildings, washed away bridges, made roads impassable, and destroyed homes and belongings. As of March 22, more than 850,000 people have been affected in Malawi alone, with 59 deaths and 677 injured, according to the Department of Disaster Management Affairs. Close to 87,000 people are displaced. Phalombe, Chikwawa, and Nsanje districts in the Lower Shire Valley recorded the highest number of displaced persons.
The disaster will take a toll on agriculture and food security. Crop losses are expected in the affected areas, according to the U.N. Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). Additional rainfall could increase the risk of further flooding, potentially resulting in more severe crop losses, FAO reports, as well as interrupting ongoing humanitarian operations.
Widespread losses of food supplies, damage to soon-to-be harvested crops, and reduced access to markets are all likely to aggravate food insecurity in southern Malawi. “There are very limited options in the southern region. Most people are taking temporary shelter in schools and churches, as their homes are affected by the floods,” said Yousaf Jogezai, Country Director of Concern Worldwide in Malawi.
Impact on maize production and prizes
Before Cyclone Idai, Malawi was looking forward to an above average 2019 main harvest, with an expected maize crop of around 3.4 million MT. Until the second round of the agricultural production estimates (APES) are released in mid- to late April, it is still unclear how large the crop losses will be. In areas where there is still standing water or excessive soil moisture, yields are likely to be lower than earlier expectations.
Fortunately, however, there appears to be no threat of an immediate shortage of food grains in Malawi.
The Shire Valley, Malawi’s worst-affected region, accounts for just 4.8 percent of the total area planted to food crops in the main 2018/19 agricultural season. The central region, Malawi’s traditional grain basket, has been less affected by the floods and has experienced good, but not excessive, rainfall since the start of the cropping season in November. Hence, food needs in southern Malawi could probably be met by surplus production in the central and northern regions.
Malawi can also draw on its existing grain reserves to respond to the crisis: Approximately 142,000 MTs of maize are being released from the Strategic Grain Reserve (SGR) for the ongoing lean season response, and another 8,000 MT for the flood response this month.
The floods may also impact international trade
While Malawi has a maize export ban in place, the ongoing disaster in neighboring Mozambique could lead to an increase in informal maize exports there. Overall, FAO estimates that Mozambique will require increased maize imports in the 2019/20 season. In the past, Malawi has also exported maize to Zimbabwe, whose eastern provinces were also hit hard by Cyclone Idai. Zambia has recently lifted its export ban on maize meal, which may ease the regional supply situation, particularly in Zimbabwe. South Africa has been the main supplier to countries with structural deficits within the region. That country was affected by persistent dryness during parts of the planting season and will therefore likely harvest 16 percent less maize in 2019 compared to the previous season, though the harvest is still expected to be slightly higher than the country’s annual consumption of around 10 million MT.
Our ongoing maize price monitoring in Malawi found an increase of 10 to 12 percent in some southern markets directly after the floods hit, but prices have been stable or declining since then. At the national level, maize prices in Feb.-March 2019 are 50 to 56 percent higher than average prices in the same months in 2018, but slightly lower than the same months in 2017, which marked the end of two years of food crisis. The 2017 harvest was above average and maize stocks carried through have covered the below average harvest in 2018.
Many of the areas in the Shire Valley hit hard by the floods of 2015, and drought of 2016, have now been hit for a third time by flooding. So, while food security in the southern regions can be expected to decline, food security in the central and northern regions will be less affected.
Limited resilience
The floods hit areas with very limited resilience to extreme weather and other climate-related shocks. Most of the affected people are smallholder farmer families, who struggle even in normal years to make ends meet. The vast majority of Malawi’s farmers rely on rain-fed agriculture, whose overall productivity is low and restricted to a single season. The IFPRI Malawi Key Facts Sheet on Agriculture reports that the median land holding for agricultural households in the South is just 0.38 ha.
The current floods will also complicate an ongoing lean season humanitarian response, which is providing food and/or cash to 3.3 million severely food-insecure people (IPC 3 and 4), many of them in the southern region. There, frequent extreme weather events are exacerbated by rampant deforestation; meanwhile, high population growth and poverty drive people to settle in flood prone areas.
In a recent article, Robert Šakić Trogrlić investigated community-based flood-risk strategies, which are widely used in Malawi. His findings showed that although community strategies are mostly responsive and focus on relief, more are starting to look at how to mitigate and prepare for floods. However, a number of challenges remain, such as lack of funding, limited community participation, and gaps in planning, implementation and maintenance of preparedness systems.
With every emergency response comes the opportunity to invest in resilience. For this, longer timeframes are needed to develop more comprehensive approaches that link relief with development and build resilience.
Sandra Fröbe-Kaltenbach is a Communications Specialist with IFPRI’s Malawi Strategy Support Program (MASSP); Bob Baulch is the Leader of MASSP. This post also appears on the MASSP blog.
