Nigeria is suffering from high levels of food insecurity, with 25 million people at risk of hunger and 34% of children under 5 stunted (low height for age) due to lack of access to nutritious food among other reasons. In 2023, the government declared a state of emergency for food security.
High food price inflation, which averaged more than 30% in 2024, is a major contributor to the food security problem. Climate-driven extreme weather events have played a role in pushing prices up: Recent storms and floods affected most of Nigeria’s states, destroying crops. Other factors are persistently high prices for agricultural inputs including fertilizer and elevated fuel costs for transportation of inputs and irrigation of produce.
Expanding small-scale or farmer-led irrigation has shown great promise in lowering food price inflation and improving diets. With this approach, farmers, alone or in small groups, develop a water source, often by drilling a well or abstracting surface water and acquiring manual or mechanized irrigation technology. They purchase all other inputs and sell the irrigated produce or use it for household consumption. IFPRI research shows that accelerated irrigation development in sub-Saharan Africa could reduce the region’s growing food import dependency from 54% in 2050 to 17%-40% by 2050 (depending on the irrigation technology)—helping to insulate countries from local and global market shocks that have fueled inflation—and can also reduce the population at risk of hunger and child undernutrition.
Based on research from East Africa, irrigation also helps farm households retain or expand expenditures during extreme climate events. Importantly, irrigation can reduce wasting (low weight for age) and improve diets through increased production (in the lean season); higher incomes; better water supply; and possibly through strengthening women’s empowerment (including by reducing the time needed to collect domestic water).
Among countries in sub-Saharan Africa, the potential for irrigation expansion is by far the largest in Nigeria, while the internal rate of return is largest for small-scale or individual irrigation. Despite its high potential, small-scale irrigation has taken off slowly in Nigeria and elsewhere in sub-Saharan Africa. For example, initial studies suggest that around 5 million hectares of sustainable small-scale irrigation can be developed mostly in Nigeria’s central and northern regions (with largely solar-powered systems to overcome high fuel prices and lack of electricity connections in rural areas). Yet farmers are often not aware of this and other irrigation technologies and, if they are, they often cannot afford accessible systems. Finance actors themselves often lack information on the production-risk reducing properties of irrigation and therefore do not offer preferential rates for irrigation technologies. At the same time, government policies remain focused on developing large-scale irrigation. While also important, this approach is insufficient to unleash the food security revolution the country—and the continent—need. The government’s and irrigation equipment vendor’s limited knowledge on the potential size, location, and profitability of the farmer-led irrigation sub-sector, furthermore, affects their motivation to support its expansion.
A new project aims to address the knowledge gaps and constraints encountered by government, finance, and irrigation technology actors by developing mapping and other tools for government, the finance sector, and irrigation equipment vendors that help them to more directly target and support smallholder irrigators. The project, led by Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology (ADUST), with IFPRI as a collaborator and funded by the Gates Foundation, will identify the key attributes of the suitability maps and other tools through a series of human-centered design (HCD) workshops. Other methodologies brought to bear include primary data collection, literature reviews, and simulation modeling of biophysical and socioeconomic parameters. The project’s central hypothesis is that addressing the information and knowledge constraints of the three intermediary actor groups—government, finance sector, and equipment providers—will enhance access to and uptake of small-scale irrigation technologies by smallholder farmers. The HCD approach involves these three actor groups from the beginning in devising responses to these challenges. Their aim is to create empathy with supporting potential smallholder irrigators around the challenges they face, develop ideas on creative solutions that government and private sector actors can implement, and identify related information needs that are then integrated into the mapping tools. The resulting tools and mapping products can better enable government, finance, and technology vendors to help farmers achieve the nation’s irrigation potential.
At the February 3, 2025 project launch in Wudil, Nigeria, Kano State Deputy Governor Aminu Abdussalam assured the state’s commitment to agricultural development, small-scale irrigation—and to the project itself. “The Irrigation Technology Mapping and Tools project touches the heart of the people of Kano State because agriculture is our dominant economic activity,” he said. “Irrigated farming has been widely practiced in Kano state long before any state started formal irrigation in Nigeria.” Representatives of the state Ministries of Agriculture, Water Resources, and Environment reiterated this support, along with traditional, religious, and community leaders of Kano in attendance. They were among more than 500 people at the launch—also including researchers, students, University professors, NGO representatives, and state and national media.
In her keynote address, Claudia Ringler, Director of IFPRI’s Natural Resources and Resilience Unit, emphasized the potential of data-driven irrigation development to enhance agricultural productivity, mitigate water resource challenges, and improve food security: “The project has a strong capacity strengthening component including technical trainings, advanced GIS techniques, and engages Master and PhD students. With continued support from government agencies, research institutions, and development partners, this project is set to create long-lasting impact—empowering farmers, strengthening resilience, and ensuring a more food-secure Nigeria.”
The event also included an in-depth discussion on the project’s scope and technical relevance led by IFPRI Research Fellow Bedru Balana and a detailed background assessment by ADUST Professor Nuraddeen Muhammad Musa. The presence of representatives of His Highness, the Emir of Kano, Muhammadu Sanusi II, further reinforced the project’s significance. Muhammad Nasiru Wada, the Kano Emirate Council Chairman and Councilor for Agriculture and Environment, underscored the critical role of irrigation in addressing climate-related agricultural challenges and called for sustainable policies that prioritize smallholder farmers. ADUST Vice Chancellor and Project Lead Musa Tukur Yakasai thanked the researchers, partners, and stakeholders involved in this project, noting“Your dedication and collaboration are vital to the success of this project.”
Bedru Balana is IFPRI Acting Program Leader, Nigeria; Musa T. Yakasai is a Professor of Agricultural Economics and Vice-Chancellor of Aliko Dangote University of Science and Technology (ADUST), Nuruddeen M. Musa is a Professor and Engineer at ADUST, Augustine Iraoya is a Research Analyst with IFPRI’s Development and Governance Strategies Unit; Claudia Ringler is Director of IFPRI’s Natural Resources and Resilience Unit. Opinions are the authors’.
This work was developed under the CGIAR Policy Innovations Program.
