COVID-19 is creating a range of new challenges for economic growth and social well-being. It is critical to understand how the global pandemic will likely impact domestic economies, food systems, jobs, and households.

“A round estimate at IFPRI points at an order of 100-150 million people who could fall back into extreme poverty and malnutrition, wiping out several years of progress made over the past decade,” IFPRI Director General Johan Swinnen said at an April 30 virtual event, where several of IFPRI’s experts looked at what to expect going forward, and how developing countries can respond to the pandemic in ways that promote food security, nutrition, and greater equity.

IFPRI is currently conducting a series of country-level studies examining pandemic impacts. Senior Research Fellow Clemens Breisinger, director of the Egypt Strategy Support Program, outlined the conceptual framework for these, noting that there were broadly two key impact channels: External (exports such as goods and services and tourism) and domestic (closed restaurants, factories, etc.). 

COVID-19 presents a significant stressor to already vulnerable populations and several presenters spotlighted current country-level realities.

In Egypt, Breisinger said, the government reacted relatively early to curb the spread of the novel coronavirus through actions including shuttering schools, suspending flights, and expanding the social safety net to hard-hit sectors. While the country managed to avoid a complete lockdown, he said, models suggest that its partial lockdown will still undo some of the economic progress made in recent years. Quarterly GDP in the fourth quarter is projected to be 18% lower than pre-pandemic expectations.

In Ethiopia, agricultural value chains are being heavily impacted for several reasons, including closure of land borders and restricted movement within the country, according to Senior Research Fellow and Ethiopia Strategy Support Program Director Bart Minten.

Downstream impacts, he explained, include reduced consumption of vegetables and dairy products— partly because of the economic slowdown, but also due to misconceptions that vegetables and animal-sourced foods can transmit the virus. In addition, trade has fallen and local transportation costs have risen by up to 15% as truckers are less willing to go into rural areas over fears of contracting the disease.

Observed upstream impacts for farmers include a labor shortage, as workers stay away from farms due to fear or restrictions on movement. This drove up daily wages by about 40% over a one-month period, Farmers have also had problems acquiring agricultural inputs typically supplied by China. Further, prices for some vegetables have decreased and farmers have fewer options for buyers—often none. Input supply systems must be a priority of the Ethiopian government, he said. “Major price changes happening in food markets, in the labor markets, in the field markets, and also in the output market … will have an effect on the future system because these incentives drive what the farmers will do in the next harvest season,” Minten said.

COVID-19 further exposes the already tenuous situation for informal food retailers in Africa south of the Sahara, where the pandemic and volatile government policies in response to it are causing problems for informal markets and their customers, Senior Research Fellow Danielle Resnick noted. Estimates suggest that the urban poor access up to 70% of their food from informal markets, which also constitute a major source of employment.

Pandemic control measures and degrees of enforcement and compliance vary widely in different cities, she said, and there are significant challenges of institutional coordination, particularly at the city level. 

Responses range from complete closure of food markets to recognizing them as essential and making modifications to allow them to continue to operate, including removing non-food traders to create more space, enhanced sanitary practices, and suspending local operating taxes. Where measures have been strict, traders have responded by attempting to operate outside of the law, and sometimes with public protests. This has triggered violence against them at times, and compromised efforts to build the political trust needed for governments to effectively respond to the pandemic.

“Even in normal times, we see crackdowns on informal traders are way too common in African cities. And so to respond effectively to public health emergencies such as COVID-19, it is critical for municipal and national governments to really see traders as fundamental partners in the food system, rather than just a nuisance to be tolerated in an ad-hoc manner,” Resnick concluded. 

Turning to Southeast Asia, Senior Research Fellow Derek Headey cautioned that Myanmar could soon face a nutritional crisis on top of its current health and economic crises.

How large that nutritional crisis may be depends on how the government responds, Headey said. Current models suggest the country will see 15% income losses in urban areas, a 6% decline in GDP growth, and just over a 12% decline in household incomes in 2020. Previous crises demonstrate that when incomes fall, people begin to purchase cheaper sources of calories, he said. Thus, lower dietary quality, combined with a lack of healthcare, poses significant risks for Myanmar, where 30% of children under 5 are already stunted, there are high rates of wasting, and many internally displaced people. 

To mitigate these impacts in Myanmar, Headey said, organizations and policy makers should act decisively to protect nutrition. This includes scaling up social protection, stimulating demand for nutrient-rich foods, preventing the collapse of basic maternal and child health services, setting up food and nutrition-security surveillance systems, and supporting community-based management of acute malnutrition, among other measures.

The pandemic is likely to worsen existing gender disparities for women in low- and middle-income countries, according to Research Fellow Shalini Roy. Scaling up social protection—a key crisis response in every country—presents an opportunity to improve gender equity and lay the groundwork for more gender-sensitive social protection systems during the crisis and beyond, she explained.

She outlined a number of such steps:

• Relax conditions on receiving cash or assistance transfers, including work, health, and schooling requirements. This can help to reduce the spread of the virus and benefit women, who are typically most burdened by such restrictions.
• Provide geographically-targeted universal benefits, considering women as the main recipients.
• Issue quick, lumpy, large cash transfers for the duration of the COVID economic crisis, in order to avoid the potential health risks of frequent payment distributions.
• Work to refer women to available services on areas such as gender-based violence, mental health, maternal and reproductive health, and food and nutrition; and combine complementary platforms like radio, television, internet, and mobile platforms to deliver information and benefits.

“Progressing towards more gender-sensitive social protection is an important component of preventing vulnerable people from falling through the cracks during and after the crisis,” Roy said, “and an important step toward a better, more equitable new normal.”

Katarlah Taylor is an IFPRI Senior Events Specialist.