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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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Latin America and Caribbean

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Publications

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Working Paper

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

2025Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio
Details

Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras

Robust impact assessment methods need credible yield, costs, and other production performance parameter estimates. Sample data issues and the realities of producer heterogeneity and markets, including endogeneity, simultaneity, and outliers can affect such parameters. Methods have continued to evolve that may address data issues identified in the earlier literature examining genetically modified (GM) crops impacts especially those of conventional field level surveys. These methods may themselves have limitations, introduce trade-offs, and may not always be successful in addressing such issues. Experimental methods such as randomized control trials have been proposed to address several control treatment data issues, but these may not be suitable for every situation and issue and may be more expensive and complex than conventional field surveys. Furthermore, experimental methods may induce the unfortunate outcome of crowding-out impact assessors from low- and middle-income countries. The continued search for alternatives that help address conventional survey shortcomings remains critical. Previously, existing assessment methods were applied to the impact assessment of insect resistant and herbicide tolerant maize adoption in Honduras in 2008 and 2012. Results from assessments identified endogeneity issues such as self-selection and simultaneity concurrently with influential outliers. Procedures used to address these issues independently showed trade-offs between addressing endogeneity and outliers. Thus, the need to identify methods that address both issues simultaneously, minimizing as much as possible the impact of method trade-offs, continues. We structured this paper as follows. First, we review the literature to delineate data and assessment issues potentially affecting robust performance indicators such as yields and costs differentials. Second, we discuss and apply four types of approaches that can be used to obtain robust performance estimates for yield and cost differentials including: 1) Robust Instrumental Variables, 2) Instrumental Variable Regressions, and 3) Control/Treatment, and 4) Machine Learning methods that are amenable to robust strategies to deal with outliers including Random Forest and a Stacking regression approach that allows for a number of “base learners” in order to examine the pooled 2008 and 2012 Honduras field surveys. Third, we discuss implications for impact assessment results and implementation limitations especially in low- and middle-income countries. We further discuss and draw some conclusions regarding methodological issues for consideration by impact assessors and stakeholders.

Year published

2025

Authors

Falck-Zepeda, José B.; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio

Citation

Falck-Zepeda, José Benjamín; Zambrano, Patricia; Sanders, Arie; and Trabanino, Carlos Rogelio. 2025. Parametric and machine learning approaches to examine yield differences between control and treatment considering outliers and statistical biases: The case of insect resistant/herbicide tolerant (IR/HT) maize in Honduras. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2334. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Honduras

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Central America; Maize; Yields; Impact Assessment; Agriculture; Data; Capacity Building; Machine Learning; Parametric Programming; Herbicide Resistance

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Journal Article

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

2025Fretes, Gabriela; Veliz, Paula; Narvaez, Ana Maria; Williams, D’Arcy; Sibille, Romain; Arts, Maaike; Leroy, Jef L.
Details

Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review

With growing access to electronic devices and time spent online, the food and beverage industry increasingly uses digital media to market unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages (high in unhealthy fats, sugars, and/or salt and often highly processed) to children and adolescents. We conducted a narrative review of the global evidence on digital marketing of these foods and drinks and studied policies and regulations in Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. Evidence was limited to a few high, upper-middle and lower-middle income countries where children and adolescents were found to be extensively exposed to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages and this exposure increased with age. A wide range of purposefully designed marketing techniques were used. Exposure to the digital marketing of unhealthy foods appears to be followed by increased consumption, but the quality of the evidence was limited. Accurate assessment of exposure was a shortcoming in most studies. Stronger evidence will require studies with more rigorous designs that minimize confounding and objectively quantify individual exposure. Mandatory comprehensive policies are needed that limit exposure of children and adolescents to the marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages irrespective of the medium or platform they use. The experience of LAC countries may provide insights for the development of effective policies in other countries. Novel technologies that can be used by governments to monitor digital marketing regulations are needed.

Year published

2025

Authors

Fretes, Gabriela; Veliz, Paula; Narvaez, Ana Maria; Williams, D’Arcy; Sibille, Romain; Arts, Maaike; Leroy, Jef L.

Citation

Fretes, Gabriela; Veliz, Paula; Narvaez, Ana Maria; Williams, D’Arcy; Sibille, Romain; Arts, Maaike; and Leroy, Jef L. 2025. Digital marketing of unhealthy foods and non-alcoholic beverages to children and adolescents: A narrative review. Current Developments in Nutrition 9(2): 104545. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cdnut.2025.104545

Keywords

Latin America and the Caribbean; Digital Technology; Marketing; Health; Children; Adolescents; Food Policies

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.cdnut.2025.104545 Source record

Project

Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

2025Khan, Rashid Parvez; Gupta, Saurabh; Daum, Thomas; Birner, Regina; Ringler, Claudia
Details

Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South

Information and communications technology has evolved significantly over the last seven decades, beginning with radio and video vans and culminating in the rise of smartphones and mobile internet in remote areas of the Global South. While ICT is an integral part of agricultural extension, little is known about how these changes have influenced agricultural extension practices. After a systematic review of 131 papers, we find that changes in ICT have shaped agricultural extension, enabling a shift from linear dissemination and “one-way communication” to co-innovation and farmer-to-farmer learning. The results indicate the potential for smartphones and mobile internet to democratize agricultural extension.

Year published

2025

Authors

Khan, Rashid Parvez; Gupta, Saurabh; Daum, Thomas; Birner, Regina; Ringler, Claudia

Citation

Khan, Rashid Parvez; Gupta, Saurabh; Daum, Thomas; Birner, Regina; and Ringler, Claudia. 2025. Levelling the field: A review of the ICT revolution and agricultural extension in the Global South. Journal of International Development 37(1): 1-21. https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3949

Keywords

Africa; Latin America; Caribbean; Asia; Oceania; Agricultural Extension; Communication; Farmers; Information and Communication Technologies; Smartphones

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1002/jid.3949 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 21, 2025

U.S.-China trade war 2.0: What are the implications for global oilseed markets?

By Joseph Glauber, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, and Valeria Piñeiro

Key agrifood products may see abrupt shifts.

Peru's rapid rise as the world’s leading blueberry exporter
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 07, 2025

Peru’s rapid rise as the world’s leading blueberry exporter

By Valeria Piñeiro, Yostina Girgies, Fernando Martín, Juan Pablo Gianatiempo, and Joseph Glauber

A global trade success story.

What are kids watching online? How digital food marketing shapes children’s and adolescents’ diets
IFPRI Blog
 | 
April 03, 2025

What are kids watching online? How digital food marketing shapes children’s and adolescents’ diets

By Gabriela Fretes and Jef L. Leroy

A study shows the influence of social media.

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Events

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week
IFPRI at External Event

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April 7 to 12, 2025

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week

When humanity has faced its greatest challenges, science and innovation have provided solutions. Today, major and connected global challenges threaten the sustainability of food, land, and water systems, with the most vulnerable people and communities at greatest risk. Recognizing the urgency of these challenges, CGIAR and the Kenyan Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) are […]

Advancing Sustainable Agri-food Systems for Climate Resilience, Food Security, and Global Collaboration
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

November 12, 2024, 5:00 – 6:30 pm

Advancing Sustainable Agri-food Systems for Climate Resilience, Food Security, and Global Collaboration

The livestream will be available on Tuesday November 12, 2024 at 5:00 – 6:30 pm (America/Sao_Paulo) / 3:00 – 4:30 pm (US/Eastern). Join us for an in-depth discussion on Avanzar2030, an evidence-based initiative that identifies promising innovations in agri-food systems and estimates the costs of implementing them. Launched in response to the 2021 UN Food […]

2024 Global Food Policy Report LAC: Food Systems for Healthy Diets and Nutrition
Series/Special Event

 | 

June 27, 2024, 3:00 – 4:30 pm

2024 Global Food Policy Report LAC: Food Systems for Healthy Diets and Nutrition

Unhealthy diets are a major driver of all forms of malnutrition, including undernutrition, micronutrient deficiencies, and overweight and obesity. At the same time, our food systems contribute about a third of greenhouse gas emissions and degrade natural resources. The 2024 Global Food Policy Report examines policies, innovations, and governance solutions to strengthen diet quality and […]

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News

July 28, 2023 | Press Release

Within the framework of the WTO, IFPRI, and IICA launch Latin American Network of Agrifood Trade Negotiators

San Jose. The Inter-American Institute for Cooperation on Agriculture (IICA) and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) launched a network of agricultural negotiators in Latin America, which will seek to strengthen the positioning of those countries in multilateral forums that address matters related to the agrifood sector, such as the World Trade Organization (WTO). It […]

February 10, 2023 | In the News

Top food exporter Argentina confronts rising hunger and poverty (The New Humanitarian) 

The New Humanitarian interviewed Valeria Piñeiro, IFPRI’s acting head for Latin America, for the article about the worsening situation with hunger and poverty in Argentina. Piñeiro is asking the international community not to neglect Argentina and Latin America. In the decade up to 2015, the region was hailed for outperforming others in reducing hunger and poverty, but […]

January 31, 2023 | In the News

Fertilizer additive market statistics and research analysis released in latest industry report 2028 (News Wires) 

News Wires published a story on the fertilizer markets. The article states the market is expected to grow from US$ 3,512.65 million in 2022 to US$ 4,050.19 million by 2028; it is expected to grow at a CAGR (compound annual growth rate) of 2.4 percent from 2022 to 2028.  The demand for fertilizers in many […]

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Projects

The Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)

The Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)

CACCI In partnership with local and regional organizations in Africa, Asia, and Latin America and the Caribbean, the Comprehensive Action for Climate Change Initiative (CACCI)……

Characterizing and Monitoring External Migration Patterns in Rural Guatemala

Characterizing and Monitoring External Migration Patterns in Rural Guatemala

…

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI)

Agricultural Science and Technology Indicators (ASTI)

…

View all Projects