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Global agricultural markets have been in a constant state of uproar over the past 5 years. Trade wars between major trading nations such as China, US and Australia, supply chain disruptions due to the pandemic, Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, crisis in the Middle East and export restrictions have diverted supplies, altered trading patterns, increased price volatility which often makes markets less efficient and more costly. Despite these disruptions, the global grain and oilseed trade showed much resilience–importers found alternative suppliers, buyers adjusted by changing the timing of purchases, and inventory management practices went from “just-in-time” stocks to “just-in-case” levels, even if storage of food commodities can be costly. Perhaps remarkably, prices spikes and periods of high price volatility during the period have been relatively short-lived. 

But storm clouds are again on the horizon. Amid trade tensions between China and both Canada and the EU over electric vehicle imports, the possibility of new tariffs being imposed by the US president-elect on Canada, Mexico, China and other trading partners there is the possibility of counter measures impacting agrifood trade. The continued war in the Black Sea and conflict and instability in the Middle East mean that the threat of future trade disruptions on agri-food commodities will continue to roil global markets.   

This seminar examines the impacts of recent trade disruptions in agri-food commodities and explores how markets can build resilience to possible future disruptions.   

Introduction

• Monika Tothova, Senior Economist, Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO); Agricultural Market Information System (AMIS) Chair

Impact of the US-China trade war on China grain and oilseed purchases

• Nancy DeVore, CEO – Managing Director, DHF Team LLC

Impacts of the China-Australia trade war on global barley trade

• Pat O’Shannassy, CEO, Grain Trade Australia (GTA)

Impacts of India export restrictions on Senegalese rice purchases

• Abdou Karim Fofana, former Senegalese Minister of Commerce, Consumer Affairs, and Small and Medium Enterprises

Discussion

• Charlotte Hebebrand, Director of Communications and Public Affairs, IFPRI