After decades of progress, the prevalence of undernourishment has been on the rise in recent years, driven by multiple interconnected risks such as conflicts, climate variability and economic downturns. The number of people living in food crisis or worse is also increasing. The war in Ukraine is posing an additional and significant threat to global agrifood markets and access to sufficient, safe and nutritious food, with world food prices reaching all-time highs. With disruptions to supply chains in the Black Sea region and an increasing number of countries introducing export restrictions, putting additional pressure on international prices, and reducing the global availability of key products, the production response in key exporting regions will be critical in determining food security outcomes in the near term. However, it is essential that this response be sustainable and inclusive to lead to positive and lasting outcomes.

As the COVID-19 pandemic demonstrated, agrifood trade plays a crucial role in facing shocks, connecting markets and people, and safeguarding access to food when disruptions occur. While the high food prices generate incentives for farmers to increase production of key commodities, such as wheat, maize and oilseeds, the rising agricultural input and energy prices and export restrictions constrain the ability of producers to scale up production and respond to import demand.

This session will explore the extent to which major producing countries of key food commodities will be able to respond to the high food prices and compensate for the export gap created by shortfalls in supplies from Ukraine. It will also review trade policy reactions to the high food prices and compare them with the mitigation measures taken during previous crises. Finally, options for policy response and import financing needs of net food importing countries will be discussed.

IFPRI Participant

• Valeria Piñeiro, Acting Head of the Latin American region & Senior Research Coordinator, IFPRI