Agriculture and food security: Casualties of the war in Ukraine (CSIS)

Center for Strategic & International Studies produced an online seminar with Ukraine’s Deputy Minister of Agriculture Taras Dzoba joins FAO Deputy Director-General Beth Bechdol and senior research fellow Joseph Glauber for a discussion with CSIS Global Food Security Director Caitlin Welsh on the impacts of war on global food security. Senior research fellow Joseph Glauber explained the situation and the impact this crisis has on food prices, food security, and food supply. Among his many comments, Glauber said, “The world already had high prices on crops, probably the highest prices since 2012 and even 2008. We thought prices would start to level (prior to the invasion), but that has changed. Ukraine crop losses are a hard deficit to make up in other markets. There will be a spillover effect on other commodities. With prices at such high levels, only about 40 percent of wheat areas can respond. Vegetable oil (loss of 50 percent of sunflower seed oil) is very important in this context. Vegetable oils have been at high prices; demand is strong, including demand for non-food uses (biofuels). Those countries that depend on sunflower oil from Ukraine are searching for other prices. Fertilizer is an important exporter of fertilizer (potash) and natural gas (a feedstock for fertilizer) come from Russia and Belarus, so this is affected. Countries that will have to deal with food security are those in North Africa and the Middle East. It is devastating for the world. A middle-income country can help with targeted subsidies, poorer countries can’t provide that sort of aid and will depend on organizations like the World Food Programme which sources a lot of wheat out of the Black Sea. Humanitarian aid should be a priority everywhere.