KLSE Screener (China) writes in a piece that recently fertilizer and grain prices have fallen globally from their post-Russia-Ukraine war peaks last year. The article explains that agricultural experts and analysts have warned that global food supplies remain under threat from geopolitical uncertainty and climate change. The British “Financial Times” reported that the Black Sea grain agreement provided an important boost to the decline in grain prices. The decline in natural gas prices has also helped stabilize fertilizer prices. The most immediate danger, analysts say, is the United Nations-backed Black Sea grain deal. If the renewal fails, grain prices will soar. Climate change is another threat. After three consecutive years of not experiencing an El Niño situation, many meteorologists are predicting an increased chance of an El Niño this year. Low grain inventories have also added to analysts’ doubts about global food supplies. In the case of wheat, the crop is expected to have just 58 days of stocks at the end of June this year, the lowest on record since 2008.
David Laborde, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute said, “Due to the scarcity of global food stocks, prices will continue to fluctuate, and if there is a drought or other major weather events this spring, food prices may rise sharply” in 2023.
Republished in China Press, Tinnhanhchungkhoan (Vietnam), UDN (China).