Observation | Global food prices rise under the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, and the Middle East is facing a double crisis of food politics? (The Paper) 

The Paper (China) published an article explaining how in the past two years, global food prices have continued to rise due to rising oil prices, climate disasters such as drought, and the recovery of demand for agricultural products after the new crown epidemic. The Russia-Ukraine conflict has engulfed the world’s two major grain exporters, exacerbating a global food supply crisis. “The root causes of recent food price trends go far beyond the Ukrainian crisis, and some are directly related to the COVID-19 pandemic and climate disasters,” said senior research fellow David Laborde. In an interview with The Paper (www.thepaper.cn), he said that the main drivers of rising food prices include strong demand since 2020, low global inventories, and rising production costs. Laborde pointed out that the current Ukraine crisis and the consequences of Western sanctions against Russia are not only reducing supplies in Ukraine but also increasing energy costs and triggering more export restrictions around the world. factor. The situation in the Middle East is not homogeneous, but all countries will face varying degrees of challenges depending on their initial status, including whether they are conflict zones, their role in energy and fertilizer markets, and governments’ financial capacity to deploy social safety nets, and care for vulnerable groups, etc.” Laborde told The Paper. “So, in some cases, people will be poorer, but they will not face hunger, they will sacrifice other expenditures – in some cases, it will be health or education, or just better-quality food, for example in Egypt. And in more extreme cases, such as Lebanon and Syria, hunger increases, and in Yemen, there is an even higher risk of famine.” [The Middle East] cannot become more self-sufficient, especially with the impact of climate change. Food security in the Middle East will remain dependent on world markets.” In order to prevent the people of the Middle East countries from suffering from hunger, global solidarity and cooperation are needed, and the large economies must shoulder the responsibility. “That means they have to help stabilize the market, avoid hoarding food or fertilizers and carefully assess the impact of their choices on third parties.”