Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up wheat prices: this could fuel instability in Sudan (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by senior research fellows Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde, Joseph Glauber, Paul Dorosh, and research fellow Oliver Kiptoo Kurui. In the op-ed, the authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major food exporting regions. The war threatens to drive rising food prices still higher and create scarcity, especially for regions most dependent on wheat and other exports from Russia and Ukraine. Sudan, which is part of the Middle East and North Africa region, faces a uniquely difficult set of circumstances as these disruptions loom. Only about 15 percent of the wheat consumed is grown in Sudan, and this share could shrink due to rising fertilizer and energy prices. The majority of imported wheat in Sudan is sourced from Russia and Ukraine, which together accounted for 59 percent of imports in 2020. The situation in Sudan is already tense, for months there have been widespread protests against the current military government. The wheat crisis could escalate things further. Model simulations indicate that the 61 percent surge in the wholesale price of wheat in Sudan between August 2021 and February 2022 reduced the country’s wheat imports by 24 percent and total wheat consumption (including consumption of wheat products) by 15 percent. Simulations of a possible further 20 percent increase in real wheat prices, due to the Ukraine invasion, suggest this could lead to an additional decline in wheat imports and consumer demand for wheat products of 9 and 5 percentage points, respectively. These wheat price shocks have serious consequences for Sudan’s food economy and especially for urban poor households. New policy measures must be considered to address the immediate impacts of the current crisis on Sudan. The authors suggest several policies that include infrastructure, raising producer prices, more efficient markets; additional research; government subsidies; addressing food security data gaps and improve monitoring; and strengthening public sector capacity to address key problems. Republished in various outlets including AllAfrica, Tolerance (Canada), Flipboard, Modern Ghana.