Financial Times explores why farmers have been unable to boost supply, leading to expectations that costs will remain above pre-pandemic levels. Climate change and the war in Ukraine are set to keep food prices at far higher levels than before the Covid-19 pandemic, despite signs of moderation in global commodity markets.
Russia’s invasion has affected three Ukrainian crop cycles so far, equivalent to ‘three back-to-back droughts’, said Joseph Glauber, a senior research fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute. The 2021 harvest was prevented from leaving the country once the war broke out. The 2022 crops faced harvest and infrastructure issues, with key areas becoming war zones. Next year’s crop yields are expected to fall sharply. Measures used by economists and traders to assess the availability of commodities, such as the stock-to-use ratio, indicate supplies of wheat at the lowest level in more than a decade. “I don’t think we’re out of the woods yet,” said Glauber.