Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australia High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

The Australia High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea (PNG) works closely with PNG on a range of bilateral interests across public and private partnerships. It works directly with the Government of PNG to assist in the achievement of PNG’s key development goals.

Website

Projects

Papua New Guinea Food Policy Strengthening Project

The International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI) and the Papua New Guinea National Agriculture Research Institute (NARI) have teamed up to support data-driven policy dialogue……

Publications

Brief

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

2025Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; Safi, Wendy

Details

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

We evaluate forest landholders’ preferences to enter a hypothetical Payment for Ecosystem Service (PES) contract (i.e., voluntary carbon credit contract) and assess the relative importance of different program attributes that influence forest landholder preference for such contracts. When evaluating the attractiveness of PES contracts for forest landholders, analysis suggests that on average, forest landholders are not inclined to enter a PES contract. However, when evaluating differences among households, a variety of characteristics shape the willingness to accept a PES contract, including:  Landholders that are aware of climate change impacts and those from communities that previously participated in forest protection programs are more likely to accept a PES contract.  Households that use forested land for commercial logging or hunting grounds are more inclined to accept a PES contract, viewing these contracts as an opportunity to protect forest goods and services.  Households that rely on forested land for timber harvesting for personal building purposes are less likely to join a PES program, viewing contracts as restrictive to personal land use needs. When assessing different levels of contract attributes (e.g., payment amount, forest area requirement, and contract length), analysis suggests that forest landholders are more likely to accept a contract that:  Offers higher financial incentives  Requires half of their forested land to be under contract (compared to all of their forested land). On average, forest landholders require an additional annual compensation of $39.07 USD (152 PGK) per hectare to accept PES contracts that require full forested land preservation compared to preserving half of their forested land.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; Safi, Wendy

Citation

Mukerjee, Rishabh; Schmidt, Emily; Holtemeyer, Brian; Gimiseve, Harry; and Safi, Wendy. 2025. Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 17. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173596

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Asia; Melanesia; Ecosystem Management; Forestry; Carbon; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2025Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Details

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Using an economy-wide, multi-sectoral model, this study explores potential vulnerability of Papua New Guinea (PNG) to economic shocks and identifies factors that contribute most to economic uncertainty. Economic scenarios were developed using historical data on volatile domestic sectors (e.g., primary agriculture and hydropower electricity generation) and world prices of goods and services in which PNG trades. The Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model of PNG was used to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under these scenarios. In addition, data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes. Key findings suggest that Papua New Guinea’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with world prices and foreign capital volatility together accounting for approximately two-thirds of the potential variation in GDP and three-fourths of the potential variation in private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment (domestic production volatility contributes the remaining one-third and one-fourth, respectively). The current structure of the PNG economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, it is relatively less important compared to the overall economy; export earnings from energy and metals, as well as volatile foreign exchange capital inflows, play a much more significant role in the country’s current economic risks. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the PNG economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production away from high-risk sectors.

Year published

2025

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Dorosh, Paul A.; Schmidt, Emily; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Papua New Guinea Project Note 18. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173653

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Domestic Production; Machine Learning; Shock; Vulnerability; World Markets

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

2025Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Details

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

In this paper we present a brief summary of recent historical climate of Papua New Guinea (PNG), finding that rainfall has been increasing greatly compared to pre-1995 levels, but that temperature has only been rising at a moderate rate. We then examine the 5 climate models used in this study from the Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) / ISIMIP / CMIP3b, discovering one – IPSL – which best reflects the climate trends noted in PNG since 1995. The climate model projections show that temperature changes in PNG are expected to be less than most other places in the world and precipitation changes in PNG are projected to be higher than most other places in the world. Despite noting that IPSL seems to best represent climate changes observed thus far, we use all 5 climate models in the DSSAT crop model for taro, investigating how each climate model will lead to changes in taro yields at each half-degree pixel. In the aggregate, we find that the IPSL model leads to the greatest projected reduction in taro yield at -6.4% for the nation, with Southern region projected to have greater than 10% yield reduction for taro. Across the 5 climate models, the median across model results suggest only a 1.6% yield reduction, while the most optimistic model projects a 4.4% gain. Because of uncertainty across climate models and different impacts across regions, as well as potentially increasing climate variability which would lead to more extreme events including droughts and floods, we recommend developing a suite of options to help farmers navigate future climate uncertainty. For example, developing and testing crop varieties that would offer better yields whether the future is wetter or drier, as well as varieties that are less sensitive to temperature extremes. These could include new varieties of taro but might also include alternative crops and farming techniques designed to protect the plants during ad-verse climate events.

Year published

2025

Authors

Thomas, Timothy S.; Robertson, Richard D.

Citation

Thomas, Timothy S.; and Robertson, Richard D. 2025. Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea. Papua New Guinea Project Note 19. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173654

Country/Region

Papua New Guinea

Keywords

Oceania; Climate Change; Crop Yield; Rainfall; Taro

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Blogs

Survey: Rural Papua New Guinea faces an array of food security challenges

IFPRI Blog

October 18, 2024

Survey: Rural Papua New Guinea faces an array of food security challenges

By Emily Schmidt and Rishabh Mukerjee

Starch-heavy diets, the reach of extension instruction, and other issues.

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

IFPRI Blog

December 20, 2022

Improving agricultural value chain coordination and gender inclusiveness in Papua New Guinea

By Lucia Carrillo, Peixun Fang, Katrina Kosec, and Emily Schmidt

Challenges and opportunities for women to engage in more profitable work.

Who we are

What we do

Research topics

Projects and impact

Modeling tools

Project microsites

What’s new

Where we work

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Australia Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade (DFAT) through the Australia High Commission (AHC) in Port Moresby, Papua New Guinea

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

Preferences for ecosystem payment programs in Papua New Guinea

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Papua New Guinea: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea

Climate change and the impact on taro in Papua New Guinea