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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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What we do

Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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partnerships

The International Growth Centre (IGC) encourages sustainable growth in developing countries by providing demand-led policy advice based on frontier research. IGC directs a global network of researchers and in-country teams in Africa and South Asia to create research and policy advice on vital growth challenges. IGC is based at the London School of Economics (LSE) and in partnership with the University of Oxford. The IGC is majority funded by the UK Department for International Development (DFID).

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Publications

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Journal Article

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

2025Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Duchoslav, Jan
Details

Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries

Enhancing maize productivity growth is pivotal for revolutionizing the agrifood system in Africa, with inorganic fertilizer serving as a fundamental input for catalyzing this progress. However, concerns are mounting about the low and decreasing yield response and profitability of inorganic fertilizer use, particularly in Sub-Saharan Africa. This study aims to refine yield response and profitability models by incorporating recent data from nationally representative and panel datasets spanning six countries. Most countries exhibited low nitrogen yield responsiveness (4–7 kg), while Ghana and Uganda showed higher responsiveness (15–20 kg) per additional 1 kg of nitrogen. Analysis of fertilizer-to-maize price ratios from 2010 to 2023 showed a downward trend, with spikes in 2022 in Ghana, Malawi, Nigeria, and Tanzania. Overall, except for those years, the data suggest a trend of increasingly favorable price incentives for fertilizer use. Ethiopia, Tanzania, and Uganda experienced declines in the fertilizer-to-maize price ratio. Increasing inorganic fertilizer use would be profitable in Ethiopia, Ghana, Nigeria, and Uganda at current market prices, but not in Malawi or Tanzania. Subsidies in Malawi and Tanzania have boosted profitability, but these may not be necessary in Ghana, Nigeria, or Uganda, which already have favorable price incentives; Malawi could benefit by substantially reducing its 80 percent subsidy while maintaining decent price incentives and farm profits. The paper proposes policy options based on factors influencing yield responsiveness and potential improvements drawn from new modeling and synthesis of the literature.

Year published

2025

Authors

Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; Duchoslav, Jan

Citation

Ragasa, Catherine; Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Asante, Seth; Amare, Mulubrhan; Ma, Ning; Olanrewaju, Opeyemi; and Duchoslav, Jan. 2025. Maize yield responsiveness and profitability of fertilizer: New survey evidence from six African countries. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102815. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102815

Country/Region

Ghana; Uganda; Malawi; Nigeria; Ethiopia

Keywords

Tanzania; Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Maize; Agricultural Productivity; Agrifood Systems; Inorganic Fertilizers; Yields; Profitability; Data; Prices

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102815 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

2025Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda

Fertilizer subsidies are a prominent feature of many agricultural development strategies in sub-Saharan Africa, but few countries have the necessary data to make rapid decisions about their management in the face of exogenous shocks. This was the case in Rwanda following the rapid increase in international fertilizer prices in 2021–22. Working within a constrained fiscal space that followed the economic downturn caused by the COVID-19 pandemic, the Government of Rwanda aimed to revise its fertilizer subsidy system to accommodate higher fertilizer import prices without compromising progress against its agricultural growth targets. This paper explores both the economic analysis and policy process that shaped decision-making around Rwanda’s fertilizer subsidy system during the period 2020–23. The paper centers on the design and application of a microsimulation model that estimated—almost in real time—the impact of increased fertilizer prices on crop production during this period. It then explores the policy outcomes that followed, emphasizing the scope for subsidy reductions even in the midst of crisis, the critical importance of strengthening agricultural data systems, and lessons for countries facing similar challenges.

Year published

2025

Authors

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Spielman, David J.; Mugabo, Serge; Rosenbach, Gracie; Ndikumana, Sosthene; Benimana, Gilberthe; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2025. Fertilizer policy reforms in the midst of crisis: Evidence from Rwanda. Food Policy 133(May 2025): 102823. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Reforms; Subsidies; Data; Shock; Agricultural Development

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2025.102823 Source record

Project

Policies, Institutions, and Markets

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

2025Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash
Details

Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India

Despite recognition of the potentially significant cumulative effects of input use on annual crop output—such as the effect of applying inorganic fertilizer in one year on crop output in the subsequent year—real-world evidence from smallholder farmers’ fields in lower-income countries remains scarce. We narrow this knowledge gap using unique district-level and farm-household-level annual panel datasets in India. We start with flexible translog production functions, which are well-suited for identifying cumulative effects in farmers’ actual production environments. We then apply shrinkage methods (LASSO and GMM-LASSO) to approximate the production function with reduced parameter dimensions, addressing various challenges such as multicollinearity among multiple inputs, including the same inputs from the current and previous years, and potential endogeneity in inputs. Our results indicate that, throughout the shrinkage process, potassium remains a key predictor of outputs, while other inputs (land, labor, capital, irrigation, and other fertilizer nutrients) drop out. More important, the cumulative quantity of potassium from both the previous and current years is a consistently more critical determinant of production than the quantity of potassium from the current year alone, demonstrating the potassium’s significant cumulative effects. These patterns hold at both the district and farm levels across diverse agroecologies and cropping systems. Furthermore, the dynamic panel data analyses suggest that farmers’ use of potassium in the current year is significantly negatively affected by its use in the previous year, potentially stabilizing outputs across years. Our results support earlier agronomic findings suggesting that the cumulative effects of potassium may be relevant across wider geographic regions than previously thought.

Year published

2025

Authors

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; Kishore, Avinash

Citation

Takeshima, Hiroyuki; and Kishore, Avinash. 2025. Detecting cumulative effects of inputs within the flexible production function framework through LASSO shrinkage estimation: Implications for potassium fertilizer use in India. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2332. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/174101

Country/Region

India

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Fertilizers; Inputs; Machine Learning; Potassium

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Events

Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

August 24, 2020, 4:00 – 5:30 pm

Some Welfare Consequences of COVID-19 in Ethiopia

Cross-country experience so far shows that the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic and responses to combat are multidimensional. It is thus reasonable to expect the occurrence of these effects in Ethiopia. Findings of several studies will be reported during this webinar. The presentations focus on the impact of COVID-19 on the welfare of mothers and […]

Blogs

Can sports and life skills programs improve labor force outcomes for vulnerable youth?
IFPRI Blog
 | 
February 11, 2021

Can sports and life skills programs improve labor force outcomes for vulnerable youth?

By Lori Beaman, Sylvan Herskowitz, Niall Keleher, and Jeremy Magruder

Analyzing impacts of a program in Monrovia, Liberia.

What happens when you incentivize primary education in Uganda
IFPRI Blog
 | 
March 15, 2019

What happens when you incentivize primary education in Uganda

By Daniel Gilligan, Naureen Karachiwalla, Ibrahim Kasirye, Adrienne Lucas, and Derek Neal

Incentives that hold teachers accountable for achievement can increase educational attainment when paired with adequate instructional resources, research shows.