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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Carlo Azzarri

Carlo Azzarri is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His work focuses on the relationships among poverty, nutrition, food security, agriculture, the environment, production, and migration—analyzed at both micro and macroeconomic levels, primarily using quantitative methods.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Development Strategies and Governance

Clemens Breisinger

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Clemens Breisinger is Program Leader for the Kenya Strategy Support Program and a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Previously, Clemens led IFPRI’s Middle East and North Africa team and was based in Cairo from 2016 to 2021, where he also established and led IFPRI’s country program office for Egypt. Clemens, now based in Nairobi, is also the Country Program Leader for Kenya and has co-led the establishment of IFPRI’s new country program office in Sudan. The country programs develop research-based policy solutions, build coalitions for policy change, and co-create innovative analytical tools in close collaboration with ministries of planning, social solidarity, and agriculture; statistical agencies and universities; and regional and international partners such as AGRA, the European Union, UN agencies, USAID, and the World Bank. Clemens’ research, capacity building, and policy advisory work covers a broad range of issues related to food systems transformation and poverty reduction, food and nutrition security, climate change, conflict, and social protection. Together with colleagues and partners, Clemens has produced more than 100 widely read and quoted publications. Clemens received his PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Hohenheim, Germany.

Languages spoken: English, French, German

Publications

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Publications

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Journal Article

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

2025Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data?

Livestock statistics in most low- and middle-income countries rely on self-reported, survey-based measures. However, respondents may have various challenges to accurately report livestock ownership. This study introduces a novel set of survey and measurement experiments to improve livestock statistics in Africa. We introduce two innovations to conventional livestock data collection methods. First, we address some of the sources of potential underreporting in livestock assets by introducing an explicit nudge to a random subset of survey respondents. Second, we arrange for direct counting of livestock assets by enumerators and local livestock experts. We demonstrate that self-reported data on livestock ownership suffer from significant and systematic underreporting. While our nudge affects only the reporting behaviour of households with larger stocks of livestock, direct counting increases total livestock ownership by 39 percent and the reported number of cattle by 43 percent. These impacts are evident at both the extensive and intensive margins of livestock asset ownership, as well as considering the number and value of livestock assets owned. Such mismeasurement in self-reported livestock data can lead to underestimation of the contribution of the livestock sector to national economies. Furthermore, direct counting generates important spillover effects to livestock species not explicitly counted in the survey. We finally show that underreporting in self-reported livestock data is systematic and hence consequential for statistical inferences. Our findings underscore that survey designs that can address specific sources of bias in self-reported livestock data can meaningfully improve livestock asset measurement in Africa.

Year published

2025

Authors

Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Abay, Kibrom A.; Ayalew, Hailemariam; Terfa, Zelalem; Karguia, Joseph; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2025. How good are livestock statistics in Africa? Can nudging and direct counting improve the quality of livestock asset data? Journal of Development Economics 176(September 2025): 103532. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532

Keywords

Africa; Livestock; Measurement; Survey Methods; Livestock Management

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jdeveco.2025.103532 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

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Working Paper

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

2024Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens
Details

Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use

The recent surge in violent conflicts, intertwined with climate-induced drought risks, is jeopardizing decades of development progress in many low- and middle-income countries. This study investigates the compounded effects of armed conflicts and climate-induced disruptions on agricultural input use in Ethiopia, a country experiencing significant fragility due to both factors. Using a unique household- and plot-level panel dataset collected before (2019) and after (2023) the onset of a widespread conflict, we examine how these disruptions affect the use of key agricultural inputs, such as inorganic fertilizers, improved seeds, agrochemicals, compost, and manure. The analysis reveals that exposure to conflict significantly reduces the likelihood of using both inorganic and organic inputs. Conflict-affected households are 9 percentage points less likely to use both inorganic fertilizers and improved seeds, and 14 percentage points less likely to use organic fertilizers, such as compost and manure. Exposure to recurrent rainfall variability by inducing uncertainty of use of inputs further exacerbates these negative impacts, reducing fertilizer use by an additional 3 percent among drought-exposed households. These findings highlight the multifaceted challenges faced by smallholder farmers in fragile settings, where both conflict and environmental stressors undermine agricultural productivity and threaten food security. The study underscores the need for targeted anticipatory (pre-conflict) and resilience building (post-conflict) interventions to support resilience in agricultural practices within conflict-affected regions, particularly those facing climate-induced weather risks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; Breisinger, Clemens

Citation

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Berhane, Guush; Wondale, Meseret; and Breisinger, Clemens. 2024. Farming under fire: The interplay of armed conflict and climate-induced weather disruptions in agricultural input use. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2307. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168640

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Agriculture; Armed Conflicts; Climate Change; Weather Hazards; Inputs

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

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Working Paper

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

2024Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John
Details

Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions

Amid global supply chain disruptions and an escalating fertilizer crisis, Kenya’s National Fertilizer Subsidy Program (NFSP) emerges as a critical intervention to enhance agricultural resilience. This paper investigates the NFSP’s impacts on fertilizer adoption, maize productivity, and market dynamics, employing a quasi-experimental design with two-way fixed effects and two-stage least squares (2SLS) estimation. We leverage random variation in government-issued SMS notifications to identify causal effects. Results show that the NFSP increased fertilizer adoption by 7%, leading to maize yield gains of 26–37% (164–233.5 kg/acre), with greater benefits for younger and more educated farmers. However, the program caused a substantial crowding-out effect, reducing private-sector fertilizer use by 49–57%. Barriers such as financial constraints, delayed notifications, and logistical inefficiencies limited equitable access, undermining the program’s potential. Despite these challenges, the NFSP was cost-effective, offering favorable value-cost ratios for farmers and the government. To enhance impact and sustainability, we recommend addressing participation barriers and integrating private-sector agro-dealers into the distribution framework. This study provides crucial insights for policymakers on designing subsidy programs that balance immediate productivity gains with market sustainability, especially during periods of global agricultural uncertainty.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; Olwande, John

Citation

Ayalew, Hailemariam; Breisinger, Clemens; Karugia, Joseph T.; Kimaiyo, Faith Chepkemoi; Kimathi, Sally; and Olwande, John. 2024. Subsidizing resilience: Evaluating Kenya’s fertilizer subsidy program amid global supply chain disruptions. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2306. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168639

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Subsidies; Fertilizers; Resilience; Supply Chain Disruptions; Supply Chains; Global Value Chains; Maize; Smallholders

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Working Paper

Events

4th International Conference on Financing for Development
IFPRI at External Event

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June 30 to July 3, 2025

4th International Conference on Financing for Development

IFPRI is pleased to participate in the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development (FFD4). This conference provides a unique opportunity to reform financing at all levels, including to support reform of the international financial architecture and addressing financing challenges preventing the urgently needed investment push for the SDGs. FFD4 Conference will be held in […]

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week
IFPRI at External Event

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April 7 to 12, 2025

IFPRI @ CGIAR Science Week

When humanity has faced its greatest challenges, science and innovation have provided solutions. Today, major and connected global challenges threaten the sustainability of food, land, and water systems, with the most vulnerable people and communities at greatest risk. Recognizing the urgency of these challenges, CGIAR and the Kenyan Agricultural and Livestock Research Organization (KALRO) are […]

Food Systems for Healthy Diets and Nutrition: Africa Regional Launch of IFPRI’s 2024 Global Food Policy Report
Series/Special Event

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November 14, 2024, 2:30 – 4:30 pm

Food Systems for Healthy Diets and Nutrition: Africa Regional Launch of IFPRI’s 2024 Global Food Policy Report

Despite significant progress in addressing hunger and undernutrition in the early 2000s, malnutrition, in all its forms, remains a major challenge in all regions of the world. Unhealthy diets remain the primary drivers of many forms of malnutrition, including undernutrition, overweight and obesity, micronutrient deficiencies, and diet-related noncommunicable diseases. Today, the number of people who […]

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News

January 08, 2024 | Press Release

A new book provides a roadmap for food systems transformation in Kenya

The past few years have seen Kenya, along with many other countries, confronted with multifaceted and compounding challenges. The disruptions caused by COVID-19, high levels of food price inflation, and environmental crises, such as locust infestations and droughts, have severely tested the resilience of Kenya’s food systems and the affordability of food for its citizens. […]

May 20, 2022 | In the News

CGIAR launches initiative to build food security policy in 6 countries (Devex) 

Devex published an article stating that CGIAR has launched a new initiative that seeks to improve food security and resilience by supporting partner countries in developing coherent policies on food, land, and water. The National Policies and Strategies for Food, Land and Water Systems Transformation Initiative, or NPS — which was inaugurated Tuesday in Kenya […]

April 13, 2022 | In the News

Russia-Ukraine conflict is driving up wheat prices: this could fuel instability in Sudan (The Conversation)

The Conversation published an op-ed by senior research fellows Clemens Breisinger, David Laborde, Joseph Glauber, Paul Dorosh, and research fellow Oliver Kiptoo Kurui. In the op-ed, the authors write that Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has disrupted agricultural production and trade from one of the world’s major food exporting regions. The war threatens to drive rising […]

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