IFPRI CGIAR
Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kalyani Raghunathan

Kalyani Raghunathan is Research Fellow in the Poverty, Gender, and Inclusion Unit, based in New Delhi, India. Her research lies at the intersection of agriculture, gender, social protection, and public health and nutrition, with a specific focus on South Asia and Africa. 

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Cynthia Paz

Senior Research Analyst

profile

Bio

Cynthia Paz is a Senior Research Analyst with the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit, and is based at IFPRI-Washington, DC.

Publications

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Journal Article

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in the rural area of Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, dietary diversity, and animal source foods (ASF) consumption in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. Importantly, households exposed to ETA and IOTA tropical storms, in addition to COVID-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality and ASF consumption. The study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households’ wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2024. COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala. World Development 173(2024): 106422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Covid-19; Food Security; Extreme Weather Events; Households; Income; Diet; Migration; Rural Areas; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Feed the Future Guatemala Value Chains Project: Summary of impact evaluation study

2023Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Paz, Cynthia; Espinoza, Alvaro
Details

Feed the Future Guatemala Value Chains Project: Summary of impact evaluation study

Guatemala experiences high and continued chronic malnutrition and poverty rates, with a particular concentration around predominantly rural and indigenous areas in the Western Highlands. Agricultural development is similarly low in the region, with farmers generally cultivating small landholdings, showing low agricultural productivity, and having limited ability for capital investment and an overall lack of market opportunities, combined with a relatively weak government support. This brief presents the main findings of the impact evaluation of USAID’s Feed the Future (FTF) Guatemala Value Chains Project that aimed to increase agricultural incomes, strengthen resilience, and improve nutritional outcomes of small farmers and their families in the Western Highlands of the country. The Project was created in 2017, building on the successes and lessons learned from the previous five years of implementation of the FTF Initiative in Guatemala, and relying on four expected results: improving agricultural productivity and diversifying income generation alternatives; expanding access to markets; increasing resilience through implementation of climate-smart and nutrition sensitive agriculture; and strengthening the agriculture and food security enabling environment.

Year published

2023

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Paz, Cynthia; Espinoza, Alvaro

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Paz, Cynthia; and Espinoza, Alvaro. 2023. Feed the Future Guatemala Value Chains Project: Summary of impact evaluation study. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137042

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Central America; Northern America; Investment; Farmers; Malnutrition; Markets; Agricultural Development; Food Security; Poverty; Rural Areas

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137042 Source record

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery

2023Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery

The COVID-19 pandemic has had profound effects on livelihoods and food security across rural populations worldwide. This study offers a long-term assessment of the impacts of the pandemic and the path to recovery among smallholder agricultural households in the Western Highlands of Guatemala. We rely on a unique longitudinal survey of 1,262 households collected over four survey rounds between 2019 and 2022. The results show substantial recoveries in incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in the region by mid-2022 compared to 2020, but at levels still worse than pre pandemic ones. There is also a sustained increase in the intention to emigrate. The households that were initially more affected in terms of food security and nutrition but recovered faster include those located in one (San Marcos) of the three departments and families living above the poverty line, while smallholders affected by the ETA and IOTA tropical storms, non-coffee producers, and indigenous populations have taken longer to recover. In addition, we provide quantitative estimates for a subsample of households interviewed during a fifth survey round at the end of 2022, showing an average decline of about 16 percent in total household income three years after the start of the pandemic, mainly driven by a decrease in agricultural income, combined with a 26 percent increase in expenditures and an important surge in indebtedness. Overall, the study offers valuable lessons regarding the recovery of vulnerable households following a major global crisis and in a context of additional shocks, remarking the importance of continue monitoring the situation of vulnerable households, especially those exposed to recurrent (weather) shocks that also have a more exhausted portfolio of coping mechanisms & express a higher willingness to emigrate.

Year published

2023

Authors

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2023. COVID-19 and livelihoods in rural Guatemala: Lessons from a long term assessment and the path to recovery. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2219. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI). https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Central America; Northern America; Expenditure; Rural Population; Long-term Experiments; Coronavirus; Covid-19; Households; Recuperation; Agriculture; Coronavirinae; Food Security; Migration; Coronavirus Disease; Shocks; Debt; Dietary Diversity

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.2499/p15738coll2.137039 Source record

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Survey: Short-term impacts of COVID-19 in rural Guatemala call for a closer, continuous look at the food security and nutritional patterns of vulnerable families
IFPRI Blog
 | 
May 13, 2021

Survey: Short-term impacts of COVID-19 in rural Guatemala call for a closer, continuous look at the food security and nutritional patterns of vulnerable families

By Francisco Ceballos, Manuel Hernandez, and Cynthia Paz

A lockdown and other pandemic measures erode incomes, food security, and dietary diversity in the Western Highlands.