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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Loty Diop

Loty Diop is a Senior Research Analyst in the Nutrition, Health, and Diets Unit, based in Dakar, Senegal, where she works on projects that tackle food security and acute malnutrition. These projects involve assessing the nutritional status and micronutrient adequacy of the diets of vulnerable populations, as well as conducting in-depth analyses of the food environment.

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Since 1975, IFPRI’s research has been informing policies and development programs to improve food security, nutrition, and livelihoods around the world.

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IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Eleanor Jones

Program Manager

Bio

Eleanor Jones is a Program Manager in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. Prior to her work at IFPRI, she worked as a research consultant at the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago. She also served as the managing editor for the Journal of Poverty and Public Policy.

Eleanor has worked in various countries across the world including completing a Fulbright in Mongolia, developing after-school educational programs in South Africa, and serving as an editor for the Journal of Southeast Asian Human Rights at the Centre for Human Rights, Multiculturalism, and Migration in Indonesia.

Eleanor received a Master of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame, Keough School of Global Affairs.

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncer-tainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impact on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernour-ishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Risk Assessment; Climate; Shock; Economic Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Agriculture; Crop Yield

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Bangladesh’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to eco-nomic uncertainty. The Bangladesh Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various shock scenarios sampled using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market price uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings suggest that potential variation in Bangladesh’s GDP ranges from +0.8 to -1.0 percent to baseline, with domestic shocks ac-counting for 53.7 percent of uncertainty, and remaining 41.7 percent are explained by the volatility of world market prices and Foreign Exchange (FX) flows. At the same time, private consumption is more uncertain (from +4.0 to -3.5 percent to base), and external factors are the most important risk contributors (70.1 percent is world prices and 2.9 percent is FX flows). Similarly, external factors contribute roughly two-thirds to the potential variation of national poverty and undernourishment rates that fluctuate from -2.4 to +1.8 and –2.2 to +1.9 relative to the baseline rates percentage points respectively. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Bang-ladesh economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2025. Bangladesh: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Country Brief 6. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/169665

Country/Region

Bangladesh

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Machine Learning; Climate Change

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Kenya: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Kenya: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks

This study explores Kenya’s vulnerability to economic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Kenyan Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of po-tential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture do-mestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Key findings suggest that domestic yield volatility is the key risk factor for GDP, urban consumption and poverty, while external risks, partic-ularly world beverage crop prices, are more significant for rural consumption and poverty. As the majority of those below the poverty line are rural farmers, world beverage price volatility is the top risk for national poverty levels. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, domestic cereal yield volatility is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Kenyan economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Mbuthia, Juneweenex; Omune, Lensa; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Kenya: Systematic analysis of domestic production and world market shocks. Country Brief 2. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168180

Country/Region

Kenya

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Climate; Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Crop Yield; Poverty; Nutrition; Machine Learning; Risk Assessment

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 10, 2024

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes

By Andrew Comstock, Olivier Ecker, and Eleanor Jones

Simulating impacts of crisis and responses.

Limiting deforestation involves complex tradeoffs: Results from a global land-use model
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 13, 2024

Limiting deforestation involves complex tradeoffs: Results from a global land-use model

By Abhijeet Mishra and Eleanor Jones

Many dimensions of combating climate change.

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 19, 2024

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi

By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor Jones

Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

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Events

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.