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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Kate Ambler

Kate Amber is a Senior Research Fellow in the Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. Kate’s research broadly focuses on interventions that can increase incomes for smallholders and other microenterprises in agrifood value chains, with a specific focus on the inclusion of women. This includes work on programming in fragile settings, innovations in agricultural finance, and regulatory solutions for food safety. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

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experts

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Eleanor Jones

Program Manager

Bio

Eleanor Jones is a Program Manager in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit. Prior to her work at IFPRI, she worked as a research consultant at the Development Innovation Lab at the University of Chicago. She also served as the managing editor for the Journal of Poverty and Public Policy.

Eleanor has worked in various countries across the world including completing a Fulbright in Mongolia, developing after-school educational programs in South Africa, and serving as an editor for the Journal of Southeast Asian Human Rights at the Centre for Human Rights, Multiculturalism, and Migration in Indonesia.

Eleanor received a Master of Global Affairs at the University of Notre Dame, Keough School of Global Affairs.

Foresight and Policy Modeling

Publications

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Brief

Nepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor
Details

Nepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Nepal’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. Our analysis is based on an empirically based estimation of the probability distribution of these shocks and a machine learning summary of several thousand simulations of their impacts using a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model for Nepal. In this way, we are able to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment). Our findings indicate that, given the very high import intensity of the economy, world market price and foreign exchange (FX) flow volatility have the largest impacts on household welfare (consumption, poverty and undernourishment). However, domestic yield volatility, especially cereal yield volatility, is the most important risk to Nepal’s GDP. However, Overall, these findings suggest that risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors, can have major benefits for Nepal’s households and the overall economy.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; Jones, Eleanor

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Thurlow, James; Dorosh, Paul A.; and Jones, Eleanor. 2024. Nepal: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168723

Country/Region

Nepal

Keywords

Asia; Southern Asia; Risk Assessment; Climate; Shock; Economic Shock; Market Prices; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Machine Learning; Agriculture; Crop Yield

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Zambia’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Zambian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simulate a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data on domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the uncertainty of these outcomes. We find that Zambia’s economy is predominantly exposed to external risks, with foreign capital flows and world market price volatility together accounting for approximately three-fourths of potential variations in GDP, private consumption, poverty, and undernourishment. Domestic agricultural yield volatilities contribute the remaining one-fourth. The current structure of the Zambian economy underpins these results. While agriculture is the most uncertain sector, its relatively small contribution to GDP limits its economywide and macroeconomic impacts. Instead, export earnings from copper and foreign exchange capital flows play a much more significant role in shaping Zambia’s economic risks and their social and economic impacts. Understanding how potential shocks might impact various segments of the Zambian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating a discussion on risk mitigation strategies that include increasing sectoral productivity or diversifying production to reduce reliance on high-risk sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Diao, Xinshen; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Zambia: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 4. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168167

Country/Region

Zambia

Keywords

Africa; Southern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Exports; Climate; Machine Learning

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

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Brief

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

2024Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James
Details

Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks

This study explores Malawi’s vulnerability to economic and climatic shocks and identifies those contributing most to economic uncertainty. The Malawian Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model was employed to simu late a range of potential economic outcomes under various sampled shock scenarios developed using historical data to capture domestic agricultural yield volatilities and world market prices uncertainty for traded goods. Data mining and machine learning methods were applied to quantify the contribution of each shock to the un certainty of economic outcomes (gross domestic product [GDP], private consumption, poverty, and undernour ishment). Key findings suggest that domestic cereals and oilseeds yield volatility risks are the most important for the uncertainty of total GDP and consumption across all household types except rural low-income households. Rural low-income households’ consumption and poverty are exposed to a wide range of risks, including produc tivity volatility of livestock, yield volatility of oilseeds, cereals, and vegetables and world market price of beverage crops. Finally, for undernourishment outcomes, volatility in the yields of staple cereals is the dominant risk factor for all household types. Understanding how possible shocks would impact various segments of the Malawian economy and population is a critical first step in facilitating discussions on relevant risk mitigation strategies, such as increasing average crop yields, adopting technologies and practices that narrow yield uncertainties, or diversifying production away from risky crops and sectors.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; Thurlow, James

Citation

Mukashov, Askar; Duchoslav, Jan; Kankwamba, Henry; Jones, Eleanor; and Thurlow, James. 2024. Malawi: Systematic analysis of climate and world market shocks. Economywide Risk Assessment Country Brief 3. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168174

Country/Region

Malawi

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Shock; Economic Shock; Computable General Equilibrium Models; Agriculture; Market Prices; Poverty; Nutrition; Crop Yield; Machine Learning; Climate

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Foresight

Record type

Brief

Blogs

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes
IFPRI Blog
 | 
December 10, 2024

A shock to the (food) system: Using new IFPRI tools to evaluate household food security outcomes

By Andrew Comstock, Olivier Ecker, and Eleanor Jones

Simulating impacts of crisis and responses.

Limiting deforestation involves complex tradeoffs: Results from a global land-use model
IFPRI Blog
 | 
September 13, 2024

Limiting deforestation involves complex tradeoffs: Results from a global land-use model

By Abhijeet Mishra and Eleanor Jones

Many dimensions of combating climate change.

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi
IFPRI Blog
 | 
July 19, 2024

Revisiting development strategies under climate uncertainty: Insights from Malawi

By Askar Mukashov and Eleanor Jones

Does the threat of climate change significantly undermine strategies focusing on agriculture?

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Events

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

June 12, 2024, 10:00 – 11:00 am

How do we prioritize agrifood system policies and investments? Insights from the RIAPA modeling system

Virtual Event: June 12, 2024 at 10:00am-11:00am EDT. In this webinar, we will demonstrate how RIAPA has been used to identify priority agricultural value chains that most effectively contribute to development outcomes.