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Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

Where we work

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Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

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experts

Francisco Ceballos

Research Fellow

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Bio

Francisco Ceballos is a Research Fellow in IFPRI’s Markets, Trade, and Institutions Unit. As a development economist specialized in agricultural risk management, resilience, and nutrition, his professional interests include the design, development, and evaluation of innovative agricultural risk management projects, strategies for improving sustainable nutrition in resource-poor environments, and the use of digital technologies for development. He co-leads the research program on picture-based crop insurance, which relies on smartphone pictures of crop fields taken by farmers to assess crop damage and provide complementary value-added services. He has over 20 years of research experience and has worked on projects across Africa, Asia, and Latin America. His work has been published in leading international journals and specialized books. Dr. Ceballos holds a PhD in Agricultural Economics from the University of Göttingen in Germany.

Publications

Google Scholar Citations

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Publications

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Working Paper

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

2024Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora
Details

Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America

Following recent major global shocks that resulted in significant spikes in international food and fertilizer prices, this study analyses the degree of price and volatility transmission from international to selected domestic food and fertilizer markets across seven countries in Central America. We follow a multivariate GARCH approach using monthly data over the period 2000–2022. We find varying results by country and commodities and an overall low to moderate degree of price transmission in levels, but a stronger degree of volatility transmission. We similarly observe some changes in the degree of co-movement between international and domestic price variations over time—depending on the market and commodity under consideration—including after the COVID-19 pandemic and Russia’s invasion of Ukraine as well as after the 2007-2008 food price crisis. Back-of-the-envelope calculations of the effect of an increase in international prices of different food and fertilizers mimicking the peak inflation observed in 2022 reveal small yet non-negligible effects on consumer and producer welfare in Central American countries, which however do not match the magnitude of the food security crisis observed in the region.

Year published

2024

Authors

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; Lopez, Elena Mora

Citation

Hernandez, Manuel A.; Ceballos, Francisco; Berrospi, Maria Lucia; Perego, Viviana Maria Eugenia; Brown, Melissa; and Lopez, Elena Mora. 2024. Price and volatility transmission from international to domestic food and fertilizer markets in Central America. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2299. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute

Keywords

Central America; Shock; Food Prices; Fertilizers; Markets; Price Volatility; Inflation; Food Security; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Brief

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Almanzar, Manuel
Details

Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024

The internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI) is a tool that anticipates domestic migration at the household level based on a concise set of 10 simple, non-invasive questions. The tool was calibrated in 2023 for Guatemala and Honduras, following the same methodology used for the MPI to predict external (crossborder) migration in both countries and adapting it to challenges specific to internal migration. The i-MPI indices are calibrated using statistically-robust techniques to select questions that are easy to collect and that combined best predict the probability that at least one individual from a household permanently migrates to a different community within the same country over the next 12-24 months. The focus is on permanent internal migration, as opposed to temporary migration (mainly explained by regular labor force mobility during months of high labor demand from agro-industrial plantations). Such a tool can be used for both monitoring and targeting purposes to improve livelihoods at the local level and avoid the need to migrate.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Almanzar, Manuel

Citation

Ceballos, F., Hernandez, M. and Almanzar, M. 2024. Internal Migration Propensity Index (i-MPI): IPSR Innovation Profile. First edition, March 2024. Montpellier: CGIAR System Organization.

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-NC-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Brief

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Journal Article

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

2024Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia
Details

COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala

This paper examines the continuing effects of COVID-19 and exposure to weather extremes on income, dietary, and migration outcomes in the rural area of Guatemala. We rely on a comprehensive longitudinal survey of 1,612 smallholder farmers collected over three survey rounds in 2019, 2020, and 2021. We find improvements in incomes, food security, dietary diversity, and animal source foods (ASF) consumption in 2021 relative to 2020, but with levels still below pre-pandemic ones in 2019. We also find a substantial increase in the intention to emigrate that was not observed in the onset of the pandemic. In terms of the channels mediating the variations in dietary diversity and migration intentions, income shocks seem to have played a role, in contrast to direct exposure to the virus, local mobility restrictions, and food market disruptions. Importantly, households exposed to ETA and IOTA tropical storms, in addition to COVID-19, were considerably more prone to exhibit larger increases in the prevalence of moderate or severe food insecure episodes and larger decreases in their diet quality and ASF consumption. The study provides novel evidence on vulnerable households’ wellbeing in the aftermath of a global crisis, including the effects of compound shocks.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; Paz, Cynthia

Citation

Ceballos, Francisco; Hernandez, Manuel A.; and Paz, Cynthia. 2024. COVID-19 and extreme weather: Impacts on food security and migration attitudes in the rural area of Guatemala. World Development 173(2024): 106422. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422

Country/Region

Guatemala

Keywords

Latin America; Covid-19; Food Security; Extreme Weather Events; Households; Income; Diet; Migration; Rural Areas; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106422 Source record

Record type

Journal Article

Events

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)
IFPRI at External Event

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July 28 to August 2, 2018

30th International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)

IFPRI is participating extensively in the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE) 30th Conference of Agricultural Economists. The (IAAE) is a worldwide association of agricultural economists and others concerned with agricultural economic problems, including problems related to the use of renewable resources and the environment. Its broad goal is to make a difference through the following: IFPRI Participants: Pre-Conference Workshops  […]

Food Industries for People and Planet
IFPRI Policy Seminar

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June 26, 2018, 9:00 – 5:30 pm

Food Industries for People and Planet

The International Food Policy Research Institute’s (IFPRI) new research program on “Food industries for people and planet” (FIPP) will expand traditional ways of thinking about the global food system and will provide evidence-based policy assessments aimed at making agri-food industries and food systems more inclusive in terms of employment and income opportunities, more efficient in […]

2018 International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research Conference (ICABR)
IFPRI at External Event

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June 12 to 15, 2018

2018 International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research Conference (ICABR)

IFPRI is participating extensively in the International Consortium on Applied Bioeconomy Research (ICABR) conference. Multiple changes in the structure of the food system and agriculture raise new opportunities and challenges for the agricultural sector.  In the developing world, these changes started in Asia and Latin America, and are rapidly emerging in Africa.  Urbanization and increased urban […]

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News

July 16, 2019 | In the News

Making crop insurance work for Indian farmers

Live Mint published an overview article on crop insurance. The article highlighted an IFPRI study that demonstrates how to capitalize on the availability of low-cost internet and the rising use of smartphones. The novel picture-based insurance (PBI) product welds technology with weather index-based insurance (WBI).

July 24, 2018 | In the News

Photo-based crop insurance could debut in Kenya in 2019 (SciDev)

The Science Development Network reported on developments in crop insurance.

Research

Projects

Topics/Countries

Awards

  • 2017 Ernst Meyer Prize of The Geneva Association for his doctoral thesis on “Demand and Design Considerations for Smallholder Farmers’ Weather Index Insurance Products.”