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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Innovation Policy and Scaling

Guush Berhane

Senior Research Fellow

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Bio

Guush Berhane is a Senior Research Fellow in the Innovation Policy and Scaling Unit. His research focuses on policies and innovations to promote agricultural transformation, rural livelihoods, and well-being, and on the impact of social protection interventions in mitigating food insecurity and vulnerability. Much of his research is based on econometric and quasi-experimental impact evaluation methods. His most recent work extends to understanding welfare outcomes in conflict and fragility settings and interventions to facilitate post-conflict rehabilitation and rebuilding. He has ongoing research in Myanmar, Nigeria, Sudan, and Ethiopia. Between 2009 and 2020, he was part of IFPRI’s Ethiopia Strategy Support Program (ESSP) based in Ethiopia and has extensive experience in designing and conducting large-scale household surveys as well as wider engagements with policymakers and communities. His work has been published in journals including the American Journal of Agricultural Economics, World Development, Economic Development and Cultural Change, Journal of Economic Behavior and Organization, and Land Use Policy. Guush holds a PhD in Economics and a master’s degree in Development Economics from Wageningen University, Netherlands.

Publications

Google Scholar Citations

RePEc Author Profile

Publications

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Journal Article

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

2025Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.
Details

Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia

We assess fertilizer demand and profitability in Ethiopia in the face of the recent global fuel–food–fertilizer price crisis and other domestic shocks. We first examine farmers’ response to changes in both fertilizer and food prices by estimating price elasticity of demand. We then evaluate the profitability of fertilizer by computing average value–cost ratios (AVCRs) associated with fertilizer application before and after these crises. We use detailed longitudinal household survey data collected in three rounds, covering both pre-crisis (2016 and 2019) and post-crisis (2023) production periods, focusing on three main staple crops in Ethiopia (maize, teff, and wheat). Our analysis shows that fertilizer adoption, and yield levels were increasing until the recent crises, but these trends have been halted by these crises. We also find slightly larger fertilizer price elasticity of demand estimates than previous estimates, ranging between −0.40 and −1.12, which vary across crops. We find that farmers are more responsive to fertilizer prices than to output prices. Farmers’ response to increases in staple prices was statistically insignificant and hence not as strong as theoretically perceived. Households with smaller farm sizes are relatively more responsive to changes in fertilizer prices. Finally, we show important dynamics in the profitability of chemical fertilizer. While the AVCRs show profitable trends for most crops, the share of farmers with profitable AVCRs declined following the fertilizer price surges. Our findings offer important insights for policy focusing on mitigating the adverse effects of fertilizer price shocks.

Year published

2025

Authors

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; Abay, Kibrom A.

Citation

Assefa, Thomas W.; Berhane, Guush; Abate, Gashaw T.; and Abay, Kibrom A. 2025. Fertilizer demand and profitability amid global fuel-food-fertilizer crisis: Evidence from Ethiopia. Food Policy 133: 102785. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Fertilizers; Prices; Farmers; Household Surveys; Maize; Teff; Wheat; Yields

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.foodpol.2024.102785 Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

2025Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; Adeyanju, Dolapo
Details

Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria

Conflict remains a major driver of poverty in Africa. Conflicts and political instability in the region have been increasing recently and are drawing more attention in public discourse. While it is widely acknowledged that conflicts disrupt agricultural production and food systems, the full extent of the damage inflicted on the lives and livelihoods of farming households and the mechanisms to redress this harm remain poorly understood. In particular, the link between violent conflicts and households’ land allocation and related agricultural investment decisions remains understudied. In this study, we use geocoded longitudinal data along with detailed agricultural panel household surveys in Nigeria to assess the impact of violent conflicts on crop choice decisions and related agricultural investments. Specifically, we explore how farmers’ land allocation and agricultural investment decisions relate or respond to the outbreak and intensity of violent conflicts. We find that violent conflicts are associated with a reduction in the share of both land area cultivated and area harvested. We also find suggestive evidence that violent conflicts may shape farmers’ crop choices and related investments, as violent conflicts are associated with reduction in the share of land allocated to long-term crops (e.g., perennial crops, trees, roots and tubers). Overall, our findings suggest that violent conflicts can negatively influence farmers’ agricultural investments directly by affecting both land utilization patterns and portfolio allocation across activities with varying returns to investments.

Year published

2025

Authors

Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; Adeyanju, Dolapo

Citation

Amare, Mulubrhan; Abay, Kibrom A.; Berhane, Guush; Andam, Kwaw S.; and Adeyanju, Dolapo. 2025. Conflicts, crop choice, and agricultural investments: Empirical evidence from Nigeria. Land Use Policy 148(January 2025): 107391. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107391

Country/Region

Nigeria

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Western Africa; Conflicts; Investment; Smallholders; Decision Making; Gender

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Links

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.landusepol.2024.107391 Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Journal Article

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Journal Article

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

2025Meles, Tensay Hadush; Abay, Mehari Hiluf; Berhane, Guush; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum
Details

Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia

This paper examines the effects of shocks on temporal stability of risk and time preferences of rural households within a developing country context characterized by frequent droughts, chronic food insecurity, and low levels of education. Leveraging a three-wave large and diverse household panel data that elicits preferences every two years for more than 6,500 individuals from over 5,600 sample rural households in Ethiopia, we analyze the effects of droughts (self-reported) and rainfall shortfalls on household risk and time preferences. Our findings show that households become more risk-averse and impatient after experiencing drought and rainfall shocks; the change in risk preferences is more notable among households that experience recurrent droughts and multiple covariate shocks during the same period.

Year published

2025

Authors

Meles, Tensay Hadush; Abay, Mehari Hiluf; Berhane, Guush; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum

Citation

Meles, Tensay Hadush; Abay, Mehari Hiluf; Berhane, Guush; and Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum. Shocks and stability of risk and time preferences among poor rural households in Ethiopia. Journal of African Economies. Article in press. First published online May 6, 2024. https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejae005

Country/Region

Ethiopia

Keywords

Africa; Sub-saharan Africa; Eastern Africa; Food Insecurity; Households; Poverty; Rural Areas; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Limited Access

Links

https://doi.org/10.1093/jae/ejae005 Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Journal Article

Blogs

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 16, 2024

Grappling with compounding crises in domestic fertilizer markets in Africa: The case of Ethiopia

By Kibrom Abay, Thomas W. Assefa, Guush Berhane, Gashaw Tadesse Abate, and Charlotte Hebebrand

Local effects of global shocks persist.

Ethiopia’s social safety net effective in limiting COVID-19 impacts on rural food insecurity
IFPRI Blog
 | 
January 28, 2021

Ethiopia’s social safety net effective in limiting COVID-19 impacts on rural food insecurity

By Kibrom A. Abay, Guush Berhane, John Hoddinott, and Kibrom Tafere

A survey shows such programs can be effective in addressing the impacts of sudden shocks.

Events

2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting
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July 23 to 25, 2023

2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting

Event: July 23, 2023 – 8:30 AM to July 25, 2023 – 4:15 PM EDT. IFPRI is participating in the 2023 Agricultural & Applied Economics Association (AAEA) Annual Meeting.

2021 ReSAKSS Conference
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November 15 to 17, 2021

2021 ReSAKSS Conference

Virtual Event: Nov 15, 2021 – 07:00 AM to Nov 17, 2021 – 10:30 AM EST. IFPRI is participating in the virtual 2021 ReSAKSS Conference. 

31st International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)
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August 17 to 31, 2021

31st International Conference of Agricultural Economists (ICAE)

Virtual Event: AUG 17, 2021 – 08:00 AM to AUG 31, 2021 08:00 PM EDT. IFPRI is participating in the 31st Conference of Agriculture Economists organized by the International Association of Agricultural Economists (IAAE). 

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