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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Emily Schmidt

Emily Schmidt is a Senior Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit. Her most recent research explores household livelihood strategies in Papua New Guinea, including linkages between agriculture, poverty, and nutrition outcomes among rural smallholder farmers.

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Development Strategies and Governance

Hala Abushama

Research Analyst

Bio

Hala Abushama is a Research Analyst with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, and is working in an outposted capacity.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Working Paper

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

2025Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system

Armed actors, including militaries and paramilitaries, are heavily entrenched in the agrifood systems of several low- and middle-income countries, often resulting in negative implications for both agricultural transformation and democratic transitions. However, the role of armed actors is overlooked in the scholarship on the governance of agricultural value chains. To address this gap, this paper focuses on the role of the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) in Sudan’s agrifood system. Through over 50 semi-structured interviews with key stakeholders, the paper traces how the SAF and RSF initially gained their foothold in the agrifood system and how they interact with each other, and the private sector across diverse value chains. We argue that these actors decide to pursue investments in certain value chains depending on the extent to which the private sector is already involved and the degree of technical complexity required to attain more profitable product upgrading. Based on these considerations, we uncover four strategies used by SAF and RSF in different value chains: exclusive capture and rent extraction, competition through biased licensing and quota allocations, acquiescence to existing private competitors when value-addition is too complex, and innovation when potential is high and the private sector is absent. We show how these strategies manifest across value chains as diverse as livestock, wheat, gum Arabic, and horticulture, with secondary applications to other commodities. Given that economic competition between SAF and RSF was a major factor in the outbreak of the 2023 armed conflict, identifying how these strategies emerged and manifested not only contributes to the literature on business-state relations but also expands insights about the political economy antecedents of large-scale conflict.

Year published

2025

Authors

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Resnick, Danielle; Abushama, Hala; Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver Kiptoo; and Siddig, Khalid. 2025. Under the gun: Military and paramilitary actors in Sudan’s agri-food system. IFPRI Discussion Paper 2328. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/173517

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Agricultural Transformation; Food Systems; Military Operations; Political Aspects; Value Chains

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Record type

Working Paper

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Brief

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

2024Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid
Details

Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan

Sudan has been embroiled in a high-intensity conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and Rapid Support Forces (RSF) since April 2023, leading to widespread displacement and an escalating humanitarian crisis. This conflict, centered on Khartoum, an economic hub contributing nearly one-third of Sudan’s GDP, has caused unprecedented economic and social upheaval. As of December 2024, over 12 million1 people have been displaced, and fatalities have exceeded 29,6002. Sudan’s GDP has contracted sharply, with estimates from the IMF, World Bank, and African Development Bank projecting declines of 18.3% to 37.5% in 2023 alone, compounded by further drops in 2024. Unemployment has surged from 32% in 2022 to 46% in 2023, with household incomes declining nearly 50% relative to pre-conflict levels. Urban households, especially in Khartoum, have been disproportionately affected due to the destruction of infrastructure and loss of industrial jobs, while rural households face severe disruptions in agriculture and access to essential inputs. The conflict has strained household welfare systems and exacerbated food insecurity, with many families increasingly reliant on remittances and humanitarian aid to meet basic needs. These dynamics underscore the urgent need for effective policy interventions to address both immediate humanitarian needs and long-term recovery challenges.

Year published

2024

Authors

Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; Siddig, Khalid

Citation

Ahmed, Mosab; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Abushama, Hala; and Siddig, Khalid. 2024. Impact of conflict on employment, income, and household welfare in Sudan. SSSP Policy Note 10. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168999

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Conflicts; Employment; Income; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

2024Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H.
Details

The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair

This study investigates the socioeconomic effects of conflict-induced migration in Sudan, focusing on the food security and access to healthcare of displaced households. Triggered by the civil conflict that started in April 2023, the recent widespread displacement of households has intensified vulnerabilities across the country. Using three datasets—the pre conflict 2022 Sudan Labor Market Panel Survey and two surveys conducted during the conflict, the 2023/24 Sudan Rural Household Survey and the 2024 Sudan Urban Household Survey—the research examines the impacts on household food security and healthcare access of migration driven by conflict. The study employs inverse probability weighting to estimate the causal impacts of migration, leveraging data from over 12,000 households. The key impact indicators at the household level were the Food Insecurity Experience Scale score and, as a measure of healthcare access, any incidence of illness in the household. Analysis shows that migration induced by conflict exacerbates food insecurity, with over 90 percent of rural households and nearly 80 percent of urban households reporting moderate to severe food insecurity. Rural households face additional challenges as displacement disrupts agricultural livelihoods and access to markets. Migration also worsens healthcare access, particularly in rural areas where displaced households experience a higher likelihood of illness. For urban households, migration fails to alleviate their healthcare challenges due to the collapse of urban healthcare systems. The study calls for urgent policy interventions, including targeted food aid and mobile healthcare services. Restoring healthcare infrastructure, expanding social protection mechanisms, and fostering peacebuilding efforts are critical to mitigating future displacement and supporting socioeconomic recovery. These findings offer valuable insights for policymakers and humanitarian actors to address the immediate and long-term needs of displaced populations in Sudan.

Year published

2024

Authors

Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; Mohamed, Shima A. H.

Citation

Abushama, Hala; Kirui, Oliver K.; Taffesse, Alemayehu Seyoum; Siddig, Khalid; and Mohamed, Shima. 2024. The effects of conflict-induced migration on food security and health related outcomes in Sudan: From displacement to despair. SSSP Working Paper 23. Khartoum, Sudan: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/168432

Country/Region

Sudan

Keywords

Africa; Northern Africa; Conflicts; Migration; Food Security; Health; Displacement; Livelihoods; Market Access

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

Events

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications
Series/Special Event

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March 5, 2024, 12:00 – 9:00 pm

Navigating Sudan’s Conflict: Research Insights and Policy Implications

Hybrid Event: March 5, 2024 at 8:00am-6:00pm EAT / 12:00am – 10:00am EST. IFPRI and UNDP have partnered for this event on wide-ranging and in-depth analysis to better understand the socioeconomic impact of the war in Sudan, and to inform policy and programmatic recommendations.