James Allen IV

Would you rather: Voluntary take-up of a poverty graduation program among cash transfer recipients

THIS IS AN INITIAL PUBLICATION. THE FINAL VERSION WILL BE AVAILABLE IN DECEMBER 2024. We study how households in Egypt’s national cash transfer program decide to voluntarily join a new government-run poverty graduation program. Using a randomized experiment, we test official video messages providing respondents with new information on: T1) the duration of the cash transfers after joining the graduation program and T2) expected monthly income from the asset provided by the graduation program. Both video messages increase respondents’ beliefs on their respective topics and interest in recommending the graduation program to others. The evidence is consistent with a theoretical model where new information increasing the expected returns for the graduation program consequently increases preferences for the new program, though estimating the model reveals other factors also likely affect household decision-making. The findings highlight the importance of designing poverty graduation programs that provide compelling economic incentives relative to existing social protection programs.

Correcting misperceptions about support for social distancing to combat COVID-19

Double-booked: Effects of overlap between school and farming calendars on education and child labor

Across sub-Saharan Africa, countries with a greater percentage of overlapping days in their school and farming calendars also have lower primary school survival rates. In theory, greater overlap between the school and farming calendars should indeed reduce schooling investments, and farm-based child labor too, as it constrains the time allocation opportunity set for both productive activities. I causally identify such effects by leveraging a four-month shift to the school calendar in Malawi that exogenously changed the number of days that the school calendar overlapped with specific crop calendars, which differentially affected communities based on their pre-policy crop allotments. Using panel data for school-aged children, I find that a 10-day increase in school calendar overlap during peak farming periods significantly decreases school advancement by 0.34 grades (one lost grade for every three children) and the share of children engaged in peak-period household farming by 11 percentage points after four years. Secondary analyses reveal stronger negative schooling impacts for girls and poorer households driven by overlap with the labor-intensive planting period. A policy simulation illustrates that adapting the school calendar to minimize overlap with peak farming periods is a highly cost-effective educational intervention to increase school participation by better accommodating farm labor demand.