IFPRI CGIAR
Subscribe

Back

Who we are

With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

Where we work

Back

Where we work

IFPRI currently has more than 600 employees working in over 80 countries with a wide range of local, national, and international partners.

IFPRI Regional Programs

IFPRI Country Programs

Research by country and region

Subscribe

experts

Development Strategies and Governance

James Warner

Research Fellow/Program Leader, Rwanda

warner_james

Bio

James Warner is a Research Fellow in the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, and is the Program Leader for Rwanda. He first joined IFPRI in 2013 as a Research Coordinator based in Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. He has also been the office head of IFPRI’s Eastern and Southern Africa Office, which provided both analytical support and capacity building to regional partners. Before joining IFPRI, James worked extensively in eastern and southern Africa as both an academic and economic policy consultant. He lectured at four African universities and worked for a variety international development projects and institutions, including the Centre for the Study of African Economies, Orgut (a Swedish development firm), Harvard University, and UNICEF. In addition, he was a tenured Associate Professor of Economics at the College of Wooster in Wooster, Ohio. His education includes a PhD from the University of Utah, master’s degrees from the University of New Hampshire and University of California, Riverside, and an bachelor’s degree from Bates College in Lewiston, Maine.

Publications

CV

Publications

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications

2024Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Ingabire, Chantal
Details

Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications

The importance of maize for Rwanda cannot be overstated. Most smallholder farmers, along the spectrum of both land size and level of commercialization, engage in both production, own consumption, and sale of maize. Unlike most other crops, maize is commonly produced by all levels of commercialized and subsistence smallholder farmers. For example, recent research revealed that even though almost half of all maize produced is sold (44%), only an average of 23 percent is marketed at the household level (Warner et al. 2024). This indicates that while maize is widely sold by most smallholders, it is disproportionally sold by those with relatively larger farms. Therefore, maize is important for both own consumption as well as commercial sales and price movements are critical for understanding potential welfare impacts on both buyers and sellers. Research presented here outlines some important maize price relationships, including multi-year trends, interrelationships between Rwandan markets and seasonality. Overall, we find strong correlation between all markets suggesting a good degree of integration but persistent individual market prices above and below national averages as well as seasonality that generally conforms to maize’s main harvest period (Season A). This policy brief provides an overview of maize prices in Rwanda in order to enhance evidence-based policymaking for targeting recommendations aimed at more integrated and stable maize market prices throughout the country. For example, seasonal price changes suggest an annual average price fluctuation of approximately 30 percent and if targeted policies could reduce this seasonal price variation, smallholder welfare would likely be improved.

Year published

2024

Authors

Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; Ingabire, Chantal

Citation

Warner, James; Benimana, Gilberthe Uwera; Mugabo, Serge; Niyonsingiza, Josue; Mukangabo, Emerence; and Ingabire, Chantal. 2024. Rwandan maize market price dynamics: Structure, trends and policy implications. IFPRI Rwanda SSP Policy Note 15. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152398

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Consumption; Maize; Smallholders; Welfare

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Brief

Synopsis: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ profitability through increased crop commercialization in Rwanda

2024Mugabo, Serge; Warner, James
Details

Synopsis: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ profitability through increased crop commercialization in Rwanda

This study analyzes the costs, returns, and profitability of smallholder agriculture in Rwanda using a gross margin approach (definitions are provided below) and reveals that over 80 percent of farmers generate positive gross economic margins. However, only around 40 percent achieve positive gross marketing margins from crop sales. This difference is directly attributable to the fact that two-thirds of production is directly consumed by households. The analysis further identifies that farm households allocate about 80 percent of their total crop input expenditures to fertilizer, seed, and hired labor, while the remaining expenses associated with fixed production costs that are almost exclusively related to land rental costs. Furthermore, per hectare analysis reveals decreasing returns to scale for land size, disputing the notion that larger areas lead to efficiency gains. Instead, for example, smaller commercial farmers of less than 0.1 hectare, comprising 5.5 percent of our sample, sell over 50 percent of their crop value. Despite existing trends, this indicates that commercialization can take place on any size land holdings for relative income gains. Additionally, the study highlights the impact of factors like labor decisions and crop choice can significantly influence economic outcomes. The findings suggest that smallholder farming remains economically viable in Rwanda, though market participation is somewhat limited. With appropriate support and risk mitigation, farmers of all land sizes can commercialize production, boost incomes, and enhance household welfare by reorienting towards higher-value market crops.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mugabo, Serge; Warner, James

Citation

Mugabo, Serge; and Warner, James. 2024. Synopsis: Enhancing smallholder farmers’ profitability through increased crop commercialization in Rwanda. Rwanda SSP Policy Note 14. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Commercialization; Crops; Smallholders; Profitability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Rethinking Food Markets

Record type

Brief

Resource thumbnail

Working Paper

Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses

2024Mugabo, Serge; Warner, James
Details

Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses

This paper explores crop commercialization among smallholder agricultural households in Rwanda from a cost and revenue perspective to determine profitability at the farm level. We use standard revenue and cost equations to assess the commercial viability of the smallholders. In general, we find that a household’s total crop production creates positive returns even if implicit costs, such as own family labor and fertilizer subsidies, are included. Specifically, over 80 percent of our sample households generated positive economic returns from farming— referred to as demonstrating a positive gross economic margin (GEM). However, if only crop market sales and market input costs are used in the calculations, only 40 percent of agricultural households generated positive returns—referred to as demonstrating a positive gross marketing margin (GMM). Most of the explanation for this difference is that the typical farm household sells only about one-third of its crop production by value. This outcome suggests that many agricultural households continue to focus on cultivating food crops for their own consumption and do not specialize in commercial production. This is to be expected in an economic context where input, credit, and commodity markets are still developing, production decisions are still shaped by high levels of weather and market risk, and production risk management options are limited, among many other factors. The results of this research provide a better understanding of how Rwandan smallholders might move towards higher value production, with the ultimate goal being to increase household revenues and welfare and accelerate the country’s economic transformation.

Year published

2024

Authors

Mugabo, Serge; Warner, James

Citation

Mugabo, Serge; and Warner, James. 2024. Costs and returns in Rwandan smallholder agricultural production: Gross margins and profitability analyses. Rwanda Strategy Support Program Working Paper 14. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/148697

Country/Region

Rwanda

Keywords

Africa; Eastern Africa; Crops; Commercialization; Smallholders; Agriculture; Profitability

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

Fruit and Vegetables for Sustainable Healthy Diets

Record type

Working Paper

Blogs

Is Ethiopia missing a golden opportunity for addressing hidden hunger? The opportunities and challenges of biofortification
IFPRI Blog
 | 
August 18, 2023

Is Ethiopia missing a golden opportunity for addressing hidden hunger? The opportunities and challenges of biofortification

By Taddese Zerfu, Fantu Bachewe, Tirsit Genye, Meron Girma, Aregash Samuel, James Warner, and Cornelia van Zyl

A promising approach to micronutrient deficiencies.

Events

Africa Food Systems Forum 2024 Summit
IFPRI at External Event

 | 

September 2 to 6, 2024

Africa Food Systems Forum 2024 Summit

The Africa Food Systems Forum 2024 annual summit will be a timely opportunity to convene diverse stakeholders, including world leaders, investors, academia, farmers’ organizations, and the private sector, to spotlight innovations, technologies, best practices, business models, policy delivery mechanisms, and investments to accelerate food systems transformation in Africa and beyond, with youth and women at […]

Using Satellite Imagery for Early Warning of Productivity Constraints
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

October 31, 2019, 11:00 – 12:30 pm

Using Satellite Imagery for Early Warning of Productivity Constraints

On October 31, the NASA Harvest Consortium in collaboration with the Food Security Portal will hold a webinar to discuss the potential of satellite imagery for food crisis early warning systems. This webinar will provide an opportunity to share the current state of knowledge and to identify areas new or further collaboration.  The 2019 Global […]

17th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy
IFPRI Program/Country Event

 | 

July 18 to 20, 2019

17th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy

IFPRI is participating in the Ethiopian Economic Association (EEA) 17th International Conference on the Ethiopian Economy. The EEA is a not-for-profit association serving the professional interests of members working in agricultural and broadly related fields of applied economics.  Members of the EEA are employed by academic or government institutions, as well as in industry and not-for-profit […]

View all Events