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With research staff from more than 60 countries, and offices across the globe, IFPRI provides research-based policy solutions to sustainably reduce poverty and end hunger and malnutrition in developing countries.

researcher spotlight

Liangzhi You

Liangzhi You is a Senior Research Fellow and theme leader in the Foresight and Policy Modeling Unit, based in Washington, DC. His research focuses on climate resilience, spatial data and analytics, agroecosystems, and agricultural science policy. Gridded crop production data of the world (SPAM) and the agricultural technology evaluation model (DREAM) are among his research contributions. 

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Development Strategies and Governance

Jovidon Aliev

Senior Research Analyst

Bio

Jovidon Aliev is a Senior Research Analyst with the Development Strategies and Governance Unit, and is working in an outposted capacity.

Development Strategies and Governance

Publications

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Brief

Impact of COVID-19 on food security and cropping patterns in Tajikistan: Evidence from a telephone survey in Khatlon Province

2024Rajiv, Sharanya; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon
Details

Impact of COVID-19 on food security and cropping patterns in Tajikistan: Evidence from a telephone survey in Khatlon Province

Poor households are the most vulnerable to external shocks. When Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation restricted wheat exports in response to the COVID-19 pandemic, prices for wheat flour and derived products (staple food) increased sharply in Central Asian countries that are dependent on wheat import (the Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, and Uzbekistan). These export restrictions also increased fears of adverse food security outcomes in importing countries. In Tajikistan, these global dynamics translated into significant challenges given its reliance on imports to meet around half of its cereal requirements. The FAO forecasted Tajikistan’s cereal import requirement for 2020/21 at 1,225,000 tons or about 50 percent of its total consumption. Most of this import requirement was made up of wheat, which is a key staple in the Tajik diet, comprising about 54% of total wheat consumption. The country’s key wheat supplier, Kazakhstan, imposed export limitations in April and May 2020. Consequently, despite a good domestic harvest and price stabilization initiatives by the Government of Tajikistan, the domestic price of wheat remained well above the 2019 levels. To unpack the impact of COVID-19 on rural livelihoods and farm decision making, panel data from 1,200 households in Khatlon province in Tajikistan was analyzed. Data was collected through a phone survey in September-October 2020 in 12 districts of Khatlon province, with a set of households previously surveyed in September 2018. The analysis examines respondents’ perceptions of the pandemic’s effects on their households’ livelihoods and agricultural production, disaggregate by 2018 household wealth quartiles. The analysis is descriptive and summarizes respondents’ perceptions. The methodology doesn’t allow us to determine causal pathways or generalize the results beyond Khatlon province.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rajiv, Sharanya; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon

Citation

Rajiv, Sharanya; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; and Aliev, Jovidon. 2024. Impact of COVID-19 on food security and cropping patterns in Tajikistan. Project Note September 2024. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/155378

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Covid-19; Cropping Patterns; Food Security; Households; Shock

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open AccessCC-BY-4.0

Source

Source record

Project

National Policies and Strategies

Record type

Brief

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Working Paper

Migration and employment in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015 – 2023

2024Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon; Mardonova, Mohru
Details

Migration and employment in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015 – 2023

Tajikistan’s economy is highly dependent on personal remittances (World Bank, 2023). Lack of formal well-paid jobs and of private business opportunities locally to earn sufficient household income has motivated people to migrate abroad since the beginning of the 2000s (Shimizutani and Yamada, 2023; World Bank, 2023). Since 2006, the value of personal remittances was more than 25 percent of the country’s GDP, and by 2022, remittances were an estimated 51 percent of Tajikistan’s GDP (World Bank, 2022; Figure 1). Remittances are thus key to poverty reduction in Tajikistan (World Bank, 2023), yet such large reliance on remittances, while providing major opportunities for households to exit poverty, also poses significant vulnerability to reenter poverty and food insecurity in case of any negative shocks affecting employment at the migration location. This study looks at changes in migration characteristics in twelve districts in Khatlon Province in the past 8 years, using data collected in 2015 and 2023; and at employment patterns in this area in 2023. The 2015 survey was administered during a time when many Tajik migrants were returning to the country as a result of worsening economic conditions in Russia. Indeed, as shown also in Figure 1, personal remittances dropped sharply between 2013 and 2015. In 2015 they were 27 percent of GDP, the lowest level in a decade (World Bank 2023). In contrast, personal remittances were at their highest relative to the country’s GDP in 2022.1 The 2023 survey, therefore, was administered during a time of relatively better conditions for migrants. Migrants were modestly affected by the COVID-19 pandemic, as after a sharp decline in employment and remittances in April and May 2020, they quickly returned to their former levels (Shimizutani and Yamada, 2021). Strong labor demand in Russia following its invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and an appreciation of the Russian ruble (before it depreciated again towards end of 2022) benefited labor migrants and the remittances they were able to send home (World Bank, 2023).

Year published

2024

Authors

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon; Mardonova, Mohru

Citation

Lambrecht, Isabel B.; Akramov, Kamiljon T.; Aliev, Jovidon; and Mardonova, Mohru. 2024. Migration and employment in Tajikistan: Evidence from twelve districts in Khatlon Province, 2015 – 2023. Central Asia Working Paper 5. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute. https://hdl.handle.net/10568/152496

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Asia; Central Asia; Migration; Employment; Households; Income; Household Surveys; Socioeconomic Environment; Remittances

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Fragility, Conflict, and Migration

Record type

Working Paper

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Brief

Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan

2024Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon
Details

Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan

Resilience Index Measurement Analysis (RIMA) is applied to panel household survey data from 2007, 2009, and 2011 in Tajikistan to investigate the causal impact of household resilience on food security in the presence of coping strategies. Key findings • Three significant factors define household resilience capacity: access to basic services, including affordable energy supply; assets; and social safety nets. The latter two factors underscore the importance of formal and informal transfers as effective responses when shocks intensify. • Coping strategies allow households to quickly adjust their behavior to adapt to shocks in the short-term, potentially enhancing their overall resilience in the long-term. • Resilience capacity at a given point in time enhances households’ future food security. Households with higher resilience capacity are likely to have a higher household food expenditure share (HFES) and less likely to face loss of food expenditure share, particularly due to the protective effect of resilience when shocks intensify. • While households with an older head have higher food expenditure share, households with a male head and/or located in rural areas are less likely to face a worsening household food expenditure share. • As household size increases, the household food expenditure share initially decreases but eventually increases at a gradual pace. Conversely, as size increases, households are initially less likely to experience loss of HFES, but this likelihood eventually increases.

Year published

2024

Authors

Rajiv, Sharanya; Aliev, Jovidon

Citation

Rajiv, Sharanya; and Aliev, Jovidon. 2024. Household resilience and coping strategies to food insecurity: An empirical analysis from Tajikistan. Central Asia Policy Brief 13. Washington, DC: International Food Policy Research Institute.

Country/Region

Tajikistan

Keywords

Central Asia; Asia; Resilience; Food Security; Energy Consumption; Social Safety Nets; Assets; Households; Financial Institutions

Language

English

Access/Licence

Open Access

Source

Source record

Project

Climate Resilience

Record type

Brief

Blogs

A changing landscape: Plots, crops, infrastructure, and livestock in the Khatlon Province
IFPRI Blog
 | 
March 29, 2024

A changing landscape: Plots, crops, infrastructure, and livestock in the Khatlon Province

By Isabel Lambrecht, Sarah Pechtl, Kamiljon Akramov, Jovidon Aliev, and Parviz Khakimov

Evolving practices with potential impacts for nutrition.